Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

It's amazing how similar the numbers from today are compared with the week before the 2004 DEM convention. Rasmussen showed Kerry ahead by 0.8% in the week before the DNC and RCP had Kerry ahead by 1-3%. Today, it's Obama by 1 and by 3-4% at RCP. The week ending with August 19, 2004 was also the last time that Rasmussen showed Kerry leading.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_vs_kerry_historical.html

Probably summer polling bias for both figures (on the part of crappier firms that don't have such high samples and no weights).  We'll see.  Obama's lead is probably somewhere around 2%, though it may have eroded to 1.5% and possibly even to 1% (though if it were 1%, I would expect some more days with McCain leads).

[J. J.]

Someone create a longterm graph, for both pollsters. I guess it exists to a statistically significant degree - though not as strongly as certain people on this thread make it out, obviously - but I'd prefer to know for sure.

I've been keeping a record of the polls since early June and this is my little graph with a ten day moving average line darkened for each of the four lines:


I just put in the dates for all of August so ignore the average after the thin lines end, it's meaningless.  I'm just too lazy to make the graph fit right.

BTW:  Nice job with the graph.

[Sam Spade]

Wednesday, August 20, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+2, -2)
McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

New data will be released for the New Hampshire Senate race at 3:00 p.m. Eastern today. Presidential race results for Maryland and New Hampshire will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

First Maryland poll in ages, yippee!

[Gustaf]

Wednesday, August 20, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, +1)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (+2, -2)
McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

New data will be released for the New Hampshire Senate race at 3:00 p.m. Eastern today. Presidential race results for Maryland and New Hampshire will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

First Maryland poll in ages, yippee!

Isn't it the first Maryland poll ever (ever meaning since the idea of Obama v McCain surfaced...) from Rasmussen?

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday, August 20, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)
McCain: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (nc, +1)

State polling data for New Mexico will be released at 3:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.

[J. J.]

Friday, August 22, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (nc, -1)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, (nc)
McCain: 55% favorable, (nc)

[Vsanto5]

Well I don't expect McCain's small bounce to last for long.

[J. J.]

Well I don't expect McCain's small bounce to last for long.

It's not a "bounce," but a long term tightening from July.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Hope you don't mind me updating this. If you do, tough!

Saturday, August 23, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 48%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable, (-1)
McCain: 56% favorable, (+1)

Biden—who had been the frontrunner all week according to Rasmussen Markets data-- is viewed favorably by 43% of voters nationwide, unfavorably by 38%. Other than Hillary Clinton, Biden is better known than any other names floated recently as prospective running mates. Biden, who has spent more than half his life as a Senator from Delaware, is seen as politically liberal by 41%, moderate by 22%, and conservative by 15%. Obama is seen as politically liberal by 63% of voters.

This afternoon Rasmussen Reports will be asking voters nationwide if Obama made the right choice and other reaction to his decision.

[Aizen]

what

no biden bounce

obama should have been up by double digits

uh oh

[King]

I expect a 5 point or greater Obama lead by Monday.

[Tender Branson]

what

no biden bounce

obama should have been up by double digits

uh oh

The "Biden Bounce" (if there is any) won't be visible until Tuesday/Wednesday, because of the 3-day-tracking.

The Biden favorables above are from Thursday polling. Rasmussen & Gallup also polled Biden again yesterday and found:

Rasmussen

Biden the right choice ? 39% Yes, 25% No

Biden is now viewed favorably by 48% of voters and unfavorably by 34%.

Overall, 32% said the selection of Biden made them more likely to vote for Obama and an identical percentage said it made them less likely to do so. Among unaffiliated voters, 25% are more likely to vote for Biden while 33% had the opposite view.

Gallup

Just 14% of registered voters interviewed in a new USA Today/Gallup poll say Biden makes them more likely to vote for Obama in November and 7% say less likely while 72% say he will not have much effect on their vote.

Biden: 34% favorable, 15% unfavorable

[J. J.]

I expect a 5 point or greater Obama lead by Monday.

QFT

Actually, the announcement bounce, if any won't even start until tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - August 24, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 43% / 45%, including leaners (+1, -1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable  (+1)
Obama: 55% favorable  (nc)

[cannonia]

Monday - August 25, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 48%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (-1, nc)

Favorability

McCain: 56% favorable  (-1)
Obama: 55% favorable  (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[Eraserhead]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

Starting to look like it.

[elcorazon]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[J.J.]too soon to tell.  I'll let you know later in the week [/J.J.]

[Eraserhead]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[J.J.]too soon to tell.  I'll let you know later in the week [/J.J.]

lolololololol

[Sam Spade]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[J.J.]too soon to tell.  I'll let you know later in the week [/J.J.]

lolololololol

And he would be right.  Gallup shows nothing, so it's impossible to tell yet.

[J. J.]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[J.J.]too soon to tell.  I'll let you know later in the week [/J.J.]

lolololololol

I just let you know on Gallup.  Obama has weakened.  It has tightened again.

There will be a convention bounce, but it won't last long.

[Sam Spade]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[J.J.]too soon to tell.  I'll let you know later in the week [/J.J.]

lolololololol

I just let you know on Gallup.  Obama has weakened.  It has tightened again.

There will be a convention bounce, but it won't last long.

Well, obviously not, since the Republican convention follows right on its heels.

[J. J.]

Might be a bounce going on here.  No idea how great it'll be.

[J.J.]too soon to tell.  I'll let you know later in the week [/J.J.]

lolololololol

I just let you know on Gallup.  Obama has weakened.  It has tightened again.

There will be a convention bounce, but it won't last long.

Well, obviously not, since the Republican convention follows right on its heels.

Quite, but I'll give a prediction, the GOP bounce will be higher. 

Really, prior to the convention, there has been erosion of Obama, to the point where it is even. 

Start looking at the national polls on September 10-11.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Tuesday - August 26, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 46%, including leaners (-2, -2)
McCain: 44% / 46%, including leaners (+2, +1)

Favorability

McCain: 57% favorable  (+1)
Obama: 53% favorable  (-2)

Today’s results are the first based entirely upon interviews conducted since Joe Biden was named to be Obama’s running mate.

Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.

[Josh/Devilman88]

We will not see any bounce until after Clinton speack tonight..