German Elections & Politics

[Klartext89]

Haha, Schulzmentum is absolutely unreal to me as a Dutch citizen. The guy is hated here.

Not only there, he's hated in Germany aswell. These Fake media polls can't hide it Long.

[Klartext89]

Big Schulz veeeeeeeeeeery strong candidate! Veeeeeeery strong! The German Hillary!

It's a wonderful morning in Germany, lots of sun, still a bit cold beacuse of the wind, but the summer is clearly loading.

Yesterday, once again, I was proven damn right. Not a big surprise, but enough to write a few sentences.

As you all know the litte Saarland voted yesterday. Normally not that important, but always interesting.

There are these takeaways:

1. SPD/Schulz: The big Loser of yesterday. There's no "Schulz effect" or euphoria for the Capo outside of German media headquarters, there's simply an interest of getting rid of Merkel. This guy has nothing to show. Neither is he a good rhetorician, neither has he Charisma nor a program. Simply hot air, big mouth and a radical plan to destroy and dissolve Germany to be part of a big "United Nations of Europe". The more the people learn about him, the fewer fall for his and the medias Propaganda. He's the German Hillary Clinton. Veeeeeeeery popular in polls, veeeeery weak at the Ballot box.

2. CDU: Big win, not question. I stopped being angry about voters who always fall for their conservative election campaign after and before governing like Liberals. People liked Madame Prime Minister and therefore the party got a boost. Once more it shows that German state and local elections are more about people and likability than politics.

3. Greens: Big joy yesterday. This radical left-wing anti-German crap is disappering every day a bit more. Very good! At least Schulz has something I can thank him for :-D

4. FDP: Well... I wouldn't bet that they will easily enter Bundestag again. They will get a boost from NRW and Schleswig-Holstein because of their most prominent politicians being Leaders there, but they still suck and without having any reasonable plan or utility they will have a hard time in a lot of states.

5. AfD: The Saar AfD is a totally chaotic group having had several scandals and infights over the last couple of years. They got a poor showing and they absoluetly deserved it. Unity is important, I hope Petry learns from it and the Saar AfD starts to become ONE party and takes the role as the secon-biggest Opposition Party in parliament.
Nevertheless it is promising that even when the national party is nearly doing nothing to help (very few Money ressources and menpower to help in the election campaign) and with a bit strange and questionable candidates on the Ballot and with an election campaign only speaking about CDU vs. Red-Red-(Green), there are enough voters everywhere in the country to easily enter parliament. With FDP and Greens failing, there is nothing to be ashamed of.

6. Left: Oscar we still love you - but there are every time fewer people who still remember the 80s and 90s.

All in all: Thanks to the AfD there's no red-red majority. Secretly, the CDU will be very pleased with the result and this fact.

[Klartext89]

Why is the fdp still doing terribly? I know they got the junior coalition treatment in 2013 but they still seem to be down there now. What made them so toxic?

I was thinking the same thing.  Although FDP did increase from 2012 and FDP in 1994 and 1999 also failed to clear 5% in Saarland state elections.

The FDP historically got their votes from these groups:

1. High income people, mainly freelancers like dentists, doctors, lawyers, tax sonsultants, Auditors etc.
2. Protestant faith

The Saarland is heavily catholic and working-class (coal country), one of the poorest states in Germany.

The only things that really surprised me are the big distance from the threshold despite polling close to 5%, the fact that no CDU-voters felt they had to vote FDP to help them enter parliament and prevent a red-re-(green) majority. That's what cost the FDP the Bundestag group in 2013 because they normally get CDU crossover votes and that changed there.

[Klartext89]

who the hell created the concept...of...."nordelbingen"? this sounds soooo great, i would instantly vote for it.

 
 
It's by Werner Rutz. It is basically a wider metropolitan area of Hamburg which is interesting but I would object. I have lived in Greifswald, I've been in Bremerhaven, Emden, Hamburg, Kiel, etc. - If we go down this route I would prefer a true Northern State looking somewhat like what I've drawn below and call it Hansebund or something like that. Culturally someone from Wilhelmshaven is much closer to someone from Wismar then someone from Wolfsburg. Or someone from Stralsund is much closer to someone from Bremerhaven then someone from Cottbus. Our maritim, northern lifestyle is pretty unique but shared across the whole coastal area. 
 

I would go even furthr and make a 6 state solution:

- Baden-Württemberg as it is today
- Bavaria as it is today
- Saarland, Rhineland-Pfalz, Hesse to form one state
- NRW as it is today
- Lower Saxony, Bremen, Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein to form a North State
- The whole former GDR

Well, I know that it is hard to name the former GDR "East Germany" and the Hesse-RP-Saar state "middle Germany" because historically GDR is middle Germany, but if not even myself is really caring anymore about the real East Germany, why not naming it like it is today and will sadly stay so for many centuries to come.

But I guess we will still have 16 states when we're celebrating 22th century...

[Klartext89]

That's perhabs the worst election analysis I have ever read in my entire life.

You may not like it, but it's all true and you know it ;-)

But I can imagine that you mostly read "analysis" from the German left-wing media propaganda networks, so you're reading crap every day and election. No wonder you're shocked when reading reality. Sorry, not sorry.

If we're talking about the German public GEZ-paid media (pay for the propaganda or get jailed in the "most free Germany of all time"), yesterday I saw an Analysis of the ARD/ZDF talk Show guests in 2017:

CDU/CSU 29 appearances
SPD 24
Greens 12
FDP 8
Linke 8
AfD 1

Great Democracy we're having. But of course, the German media is totally non-bias - let's get outraged about RT Propaganda! ;-)

[Klartext89]

That's perhabs the worst election analysis I have ever read in my entire life.

You may not like it, but it's all true and you know it ;-)

But I can imagine that you mostly read "analysis" from the German left-wing media propaganda networks, so you're reading crap every day and election. No wonder you're shocked when reading reality. Sorry, not sorry.

If we're talking about the German public GEZ-paid media (pay for the propaganda or get jailed in the "most free Germany of all time"), yesterday I saw an Analysis of the ARD/ZDF talk Show guests in 2017:

CDU/CSU 29 appearances
SPD 24
Greens 12
FDP 8
Linke 8
AfD 1

Great Democracy we're having. But of course, the German media is totally non-bias - let's get outraged about RT Propaganda! ;-)

Thank you for indirectly supporting my argument.

I see, again too much reality and arguments for the average media victim ;-)

[Klartext89]

I see, again too much reality and arguments for the average media victim ;-)

Yeah, you really seem the "Lügenpresse" sort.  In which case, maybe we should start a "Klartext89 forum ban" countdown...

Well, seems that you're really powerful and succesful ;-)

Nevertheless once again nice to see the fascist left in action - and of course failing.

[Klartext89]

I see, again too much reality and arguments for the average media victim ;-)

Yeah, you really seem the "Lügenpresse" sort.  In which case, maybe we should start a "Klartext89 forum ban" countdown...

Well, seems that you're really powerful and succesful ;-)

Nevertheless once again nice to see the fascist left in action - and of course failing.

Where did you learn these phrases - Junge Freiheit or compact magazine?

Reality. Truth hurts? Stop being fascists against everyone you don't agree to. You're no upper race or every non-left Person isn't human garbage, ok?!

[Klartext89]

As you may have heard, the UCL Soccer (what a terrible word...) game between Borussia Dortmund (which isn't my club) and AS Monaco had to be canceled after a terrorist attack which hit the BVB bus and injured one Player who had to get surgery.

Meanwhile the Police is investigating two letters of intend:

1. Radical islamic terrorist like ISIS.

2. Left-wing terrorists called AntiFa which are heavily funded by German government to terrorize non-left people who are all "Nazis" according to this left fascists.

Interesting but I'm pretty sure that the Police will fail - given the fact that it is in NRW and therefore the most incompetent politicians and Police Leaders (who all only have their job because they are SPD members) will lead the investigations...

[Klartext89]

Discuss!

I don't get the SPD's stance on TTIP/CETA

Also lol at Boateng

Given the fact that the map includes the Boateng lie by dishonest FAZ (#FakeNews) says all about it.

The SPD is like every Union organization not even close to workers, only in election times or for propaganda. As soon as ihe votes are casts, they start to be corrupt and for the big business interest again.

[Klartext89]

Reality. Truth hurts? Stop being fascists against everyone you don't agree to. You're no upper race or every non-left Person isn't human garbage, ok?!

You sound like a 15-year-old who's about to gun down his parents.

And you're sounding like someone out of arguments, in other words: A leftist.

[Klartext89]

If Petry does leave, would that hurt the party? How much of AfD's success is due to approval of her as a leader?

It would be the best for the party cause Petry and her career politician husband without any credibility Pretzell are acting like paid agents.

But it's not Höcke who is trying to get Petry out (ApatheticAustrian is again ill-informed, I'm afraid), it's nearly the whole AfD Crew. Even liberal alliis like Weidel are turning their shoulders away now.

The sooner this sh**t gets solved and Petry and Pretzell follow low energy Lucke, the better for the AfD and of course for Germany.

But I doubt that the result will be much different with or without Petry. 80% of Germans are totally media manipulated and won't vote for AfD because they can't think for themselves anymore and the big majority of the 20% who still have a functional brain are either backing AfD no matter what (cause people like me don't give a sh**t about what the media says) or are voting tactically for e.g. FDP to help them enter parliament and prevent red-red-gree nightmare or CDU/CSU because the fear of EU Extremist Schulz is big...

But let's see, my bet is still on 12,4% AfD in September. Very excited to have Patriots in the Bundestag again (in former times there were a lot of Patriots from CDU/CSU in parliament...)

[Klartext89]

Petry is no messias but she is capable, educated, speaks amazing english for german standards and is no woman who can easily be vilified.

her enemies are mostly grey, boring, old men or radicals.....

Especially Weidel and Meuthen. Totally grey, boring, uneducated and radical. Lmao, you're embarrassing yourself...

[Klartext89]

And that's it : AfD fourth behind die Linke. But I see they had already fallen from third in an Allensbach poll from late March, polling even fifth.

Well, it's only Forsa and we all know (but some might not want to aknowledge) that Gülle-Güllner is not a pollster, he's a political heck ;-)


Von Storch would be great, but it will be Alice Weidel. As a sheep wanting to kill Germany, I would be scared now because she can't be smeared in the normal left-wing media way ;-)

At the end of course it has to be said that it's veeeeeeery different that the German Opposition gets less TV time than the Turkish one ^^

[Klartext89]

Only a few sentences to the hilarious protest against AfD party meeting in Cologne.

The media expected 50.000, now they estimate 10.000, what in reality means 5.000 - in a metropolitan area with appr. 10 million people living within an hour of travel time, calling this embarrassingly low would be a huge understatement of this big failure.

Nevertheless, simply frightening that the left-wing terrorist group AntiFa, which receives big money from the German government, can terrorize a whole city and it takes 4.000 brave policemen to make a party meeting of the biggest (and only) opposition party possible.

The videos of attacked delegates and fights inside the city between police and these terrorists which I have seen are a big shame and seeing that this is meanahile openly supported by the Establishment politicians says all.

All in all, big success for AfD. They dominated the news, showed unity and got a very good team which will appeal to a bug chunk of voting groups.

[Klartext89]

Well, I told you so. There's no Schulz Hype outside the MSM and you all laughed. But as always, I was right ^^

[Klartext89]

CDU/CSU-FDP would be amazing!

It's better than Red-Green but that's like saying "great, I just have HIV, not cancer"...

ApatheticAustrian: You may be right with the switch of voters back to CDU from AfD out of fear, ok I should have said that there's no Schulz effect FOR THE SPD lol.

[Klartext89]

Btw, I looked up lots of areas and was sure an hour ago that Linke would fail.

Only 6-8% in the big Ruhrgebiet towns, 2% in rural areas around. Cologne a bit better, but that's not enough.

[Klartext89]

well, imho black - yellow is better than the "groko"....at least clear responsibilies.

 
  
I disagree. Black/Yellow would probably mean no more tuition free universities which would be horrible imho.  
  
______
Well, some group specific results:  
  
Workers:  
SPD: 37%  
CDU: 26%  
Linke: 10%  
AfD: 8%  
FDP: 7%  
Grüne: 3%  
  
College graduates:  
CDU: 31%  
SPD: 30%  
FDP: 18%  
Grüne: 11%  
Linke: 3%  
AfD: 2%  
  
Under 30:  
CDU: 31%  
SPD: 26%  
Grüne: 7%  
FDP: 7%  
AfD: 6%
Linke: 4%
  

These are the ZDF Exit poll results, but ARD has totally different:

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-05-14-LT-DE-NW/umfrage-werwas.shtml

e.g. Workers AfD 17% (8% with ZDF). In other words: One is totally bogus. But which one lol...

EDIT: Again very interesting is the AfD Age result:

http://wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2017-05-14-LT-DE-NW/charts/umfrage-alter/chart_95966.shtml

In contrast to what pundits and Leftists love to think, it's the working Age population who backs AfD while the old, government-dependend people want to remain the status quo (especially their pensions). Orit's because they mostly can't inform themself independent on the Internet and only get their "information" from the government-controlled left-wing media.

[Klartext89]

Seems that CDU+FDP got their majority in NRW because of massive voter fraud against AfD there. They might lose it if AfD gets a 17th seat (which would cost FDP one).

AfD members are reporting fraud with 30-40 mails daily, party is investigating, first success already reached.

Mostly it's because of votes given to other parties instead of AfD so that the party mostly got 0,0% of party list votes while having double digit constituency votes. I'm sure it was all only an accident... and yeah, also pure random that only AfD is suffering such "mistakes"...

http://mobil.stern.de/politik/deutschland/afd-in-nrw-kontrolliert-einzelne-stimmauszaehlungen-der-landtagswahl-7459858.html

[Klartext89]

Infratest dimap/ARD (06.06.–07.06):

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 24% (-2)
FDP 10% (+1)
AfD 9%
LIN 8% (+2)
GRÜ 7% (-1)
Others 4%

CDU/CSU+FDP 48%
Red-Red-Greens 39%
AfD 9%

Pretty close to my (most realistic) wish result (Black-yellow with a slim majority and a double digit AfD controlling them to hold on to their campaign programme)