German Elections & Politics

[Klartext89]

The CSU is the "just talk, no action" party, they would prefer to work with the FDP or the FW (mostly same as CSU) instead of really having to take actions in a CSU-AfD-Coalition.

And also it would be tactically bad for CSU to work with AfD and show everyone that they are quite the opposite of what the left-wing media are portraying them. The AfD would be totally established and would easily become the second strongest party in Germany.

Also mentioning that there are rumours of well informed people that the AfD has an Agreement that they only take part in a government in which they are the strongest party.

[Klartext89]

i would love to see the AfD in local government position, don't really in which role.

since i think the goals and ideology of the AfD are more or less anti-german, they are doomed to crush themselves.

if they don't - good for them.

The political Left is anti-German. Openly (Linkspartei, Greens, SPD youth organisation) with "Germany must die" rhetoric or silently (SPD, Angela Merkel wing of CDU) with their policy (no need to eyplain, everyone knows what) or actions like taking the German flag off stage at their victory celebration.

In contrast to that, the AfD is not only patriotic but deep pro-German.

But I guess the "Germany" you mean hasn't much to do with being German ;-)

[Klartext89]

i would love to see the AfD in local government position, don't really in which role.

since i think the goals and ideology of the AfD are more or less anti-german, they are doomed to crush themselves.

if they don't - good for them.

The political Left is anti-German. Openly (Linkspartei, Greens, SPD youth organisation) with "Germany must die" rhetoric or silently (SPD, Angela Merkel wing of CDU) with their policy (no need to eyplain, everyone knows what) or actions like taking the German flag off stage at their victory celebration.

In contrast to that, the AfD is not only patriotic but deep pro-German.

But I guess the "Germany" you mean hasn't much to do with being German ;-)

Ah, I forgot you can only be German by coming from a pure, Aryan sperm that developed inside a pure, Aryan uterus.

At least you tried. Poor human being.

But don't worry, getting opposed by an Extremist like a "Democratic Socialist" (=ham eating vegetarian) is only showing that my position is mainstream ;-)

[Klartext89]

Fifteen percent is not mainstream, dumpkopf.

The policies are supported by estimated 70% - of Social Democrats and Christian Democrats voters ;-) Live with it, Hosenscheißer.

[Klartext89]

AfD logic at work: 70% support my policies, but are voting for evil left-wing anti-Germans. Makes sense.

Take it this way: 70% may hold a wide range of more or less critical opinions regarding 2015's immigration politics (I am one of them). But that doesn't mean that they support the AfD (I mean most of them don't even vote AfD...). And that's a good thing and the German progressives should be glad instead of telling people: "Then f**ing vote AfD already. We don't even want to be voted by people like you. You're enabling the far-right. You're as bad as them."

There's a very easy answer: They support AfD, they simply don't know yet. The wide majority of Germans is heavily manipulated by the left-wing media (we don't even have a center-right media like Fox News here) and for lots of people it's only possible to inform themself through the lying press and the governments TV channels they have to pay for. Germany is a left-wind opinion dictatorship These days with a 60% non-left electorate which believes the CDU/CSU would be "non-left" because they always talk anti-Left in Talk Shows and election campaign. They are like John McCain: campaign like a Conservative, govern like a Liberal.

The facts are absoluetly clear, you simply either don't like them or you haven't figured out what is going on ;-)

[Klartext89]

AfD logic at work: 70% support my policies, but are voting for evil left-wing anti-Germans. Makes sense.

Take it this way: 70% may hold a wide range of more or less critical opinions regarding 2015's immigration politics (I am one of them). But that doesn't mean that they support the AfD (I mean most of them don't even vote AfD...). And that's a good thing and the German progressives should be glad instead of telling people: "Then f**ing vote AfD already. We don't even want to be voted by people like you. You're enabling the far-right. You're as bad as them."

There's a very easy answer: They support AfD, they simply don't know yet. The wide majority of Germans is heavily manipulated by the left-wing media (we don't even have a center-right media like Fox News here) and for lots of people it's only possible to inform themself through the lying press and the governments TV channels they have to pay for. Germany is a left-wind opinion dictatorship These days with a 60% non-left electorate which believes the CDU/CSU would be "non-left" because they always talk anti-Left in Talk Shows and election campaign. They are like John McCain: campaign like a Conservative, govern like a Liberal.

The facts are absoluetly clear, you simply either don't like them or you haven't figured out what is going on ;-)

Your stupidity astounds me.

For Socialists, reality always sounds like stupidity. No real surprise ;-)
But nice to see that the truth hurts you so much :-D

Just saw your "arguments" in the Kasich/Clinton-Thread, well, I guess I walked into a real powerhouse of debating... (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=256742.msg5485180#new)

[Klartext89]

Too bad that the AfD decided to keep Höcke today.

This guy is a nut and deserved to be kicked out for his recent comments.

Always funny if AfD-Haters want to give advise. Totally irrelevant what the enemies want, always do what you believe in. Great move, close the party instead of openly attack each other. ^^

[Klartext89]

Too bad that the AfD decided to keep Höcke today.

This guy is a nut and deserved to be kicked out for his recent comments.

 
 
No, god, no! Höcke is the best thing that could have happen. No sane person doubts that this man is a fascist, he makes it much easier to prove that the same goes for his party.

Fascists punch people with different opinions in the face, e.g, happened multiple times in Washington last weekend. The true fascists are the self-annonced "anti-fascists". Höcke is a true German patriot who says what a hell lot of people in Germany are thinking. And (I know you're not interested in the truth, but maybe someone else) he only said what even the Jewish founder of this crazy stone monument in Berlin said about it. No big deal, I doubt that outside the far-left bubble anyone hardly cared.

[Klartext89]

Höcke is a true German patriot who says what a hell lot of people in Germany are thinking.

You know who did that too?

I totally understand why one would support the AfD and would perhaps vote for them myself, but f**k you for defending that POS.

You can support Israel even without bowing down to anti-German sentiments which have oppressed my country for too long.

[Klartext89]

it has been an open attack from the meuthen wing on the petry wing.

höcke himself doesn't care about such meaningless debates.

Yeah, that's unfortunateley true and I don't like that discord.

you know quite well, that the monument stuff was just the peak of the iceberg which was his big speech, full of oldschool nationalist rhetoric and hardcore enough even most AFD party leaders felt like apologizing.

höcke dominated the headlines the next few days - it was a big effing deal, especially in germany.

I'm pretty sure that way more than the 15% of Germans intending to vote AfD right now are supporting nearly everything what Höcke said. The ones totally disagreeing aren't voting AfD with Höcke, they won't without. You shouldn't look for them, look for you own voters.

He's dominating or he has dominated the news the last days, yes. But how many really care for the mainstream media news anymore? The opinion polls didn't move, AfD even gaigned in Insa yesterday.

Looking at German News Websites now, it's not even on page 1 anymore. The topic will be dead tomorrow.

[Klartext89]

Höcke is a true German patriot who says what a hell lot of people in Germany are thinking.

You know who did that too?

I totally understand why one would support the AfD and would perhaps vote for them myself, but f**k you for defending that POS.

You can support Israel even without bowing down to anti-German sentiments which have oppressed my country for too long.

I don't think Germany's extreme anti-nationalism is good or healthy at all. Apart from the fact that it is unjust to think Germans of the post-WWII generation are not allowed to love their country, it is actually counterproductive: it leads people to start thinking the way you do. However, my opposition to Germany "abolishing itself" does not mean I think Germans should suddenly stop remembering what Nazis did during WWII.

The currently existing anti-German tendencies that are caused by obsession and feelings of guilt over the past are misplaced, but so are Höcke's absurd statements -- I don't care if Germans agree with him, they are morally wrong. That would not influence my party choice because politics is not a morality play and Germany's future is on the line, but it absolutely does influence my opinion of Höcke and anyone who supports him.

As for AfD's electoral potential, statements like Höcke's may not influence the polls right now, but they do influence their electoral ceiling.

I can live with your view even when disagreeing with certain aspects.

I don't think that Höcke is a drag on AfD electoral chances, cause you can hardly find any German aged 40 or less outside the hard-core left-wing bubble who cares about WWII and the Nazis anymore. We want freedom and silence. I had to visit Dachau in school and well, not one of us pupils was interested in it, actually nearly all male students made fun of it and the female ones were busy talking about shopping in Munich after it.

I also had to listen to a guy called "Hitlerjunge Salomon" (Hitler youth Boy Salomon I guess is the English phrase). We sat in our towns cinema, nearly 500 students from lots of school classes and different schools. Everybody was playing on his mobile phone, talking to his neighbour and nearly 20 persons were removed by this guy because of not paying attention (I wasn't, actually I was a very nice boy :-D).

I think that proofs your point of creating the opposite of what they want to.

[Klartext89]

Let's focus on the second aspect. Your opinion is shared by my best friend, but I have some thoughts on it explaining why I disagree partly.

Hofer in Austria very moderated his tone and his views in the second round. He was pro-EU (with reforms and against United States of Europe, in other words mainly stay the same like today), he didn't call for making the election a referendum on asylum policy, he distanced himself from the patriotic "identity movement" and so on.

The result was that he lost anyway and 30% of the electorate stood home. I'm pretty sure that the biggest crowd among the 30% non-voters weren't left-wing or liberal people because they all went to the polls. I heared and read a lot about right-wing people being upset with his moderate campaign, lots of them felt betrayed and I even read accusations that he isn't quite better for "the movement" as is a van der Bellen presidency making more and more people angry and upset with his liberal agenda.

I have a friend who hopes for a red-red-green government in Germany to tank the economy, get even more "refugees", crimes, terrorist attack and way more taxation and spending cuts due to a poor economy - only to get more and more people weaking up and realizing what time it is. I have a different approach, but isn't Trump the ultimate example that you don't need to move to the center to win an election?

[Klartext89]

I wrote a long text and then I was logged out and the text was blown away... What a year 2000 Website...

I'll go to lunch now to cool my anger now and write it again later...

*piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep* *piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep*

[Klartext89]

2nd round, still upset...

1. Austria: There are many different reasons and not one unique truth. The last debate was also a factor, I agree. Hofer was really emotionally and I could really understand him while knowing that it will beackfire. The Left wanted to assasinate him over a year, they attacked him totally low, the Gertrude video was the most shameful thing I've ever seen. The Left has absoluetly no class and should be targeted with the same: Videos in which victims of foreigner/refugee violence/crime (or family members of those who can't talk anymore) thank the Left for being lobbyists of the suspects and causing this climate in the country.

An anecdote from the parents of a friend of mine (we studied together) who is from Austria. His parents voted van der Bellen because they thought it would be easier with him to get a FPÖ-ÖVP government with Chancellor Kurz (cause Strache would be denied the appointment). I declined to comment out of respect but my friend couldn't believe it either.

2.  I agree with everything you said (DavidB) about German voters, but I think it's totally irrelevant whether a moderate like Prof Meuther or a "radical" like Höcke is leading the party.

In my County in Eastern Baden-Württemberg, there's a precinct I would like to focus on explaining:

In 2011 state election they voted (appr. 70% turnout, 1.026 eligible voters):

CDU 52,5%
Greens 18,5%
SPD 16,4%
Left 4,2%
FDP 4,1%
Republicans 1,8%
Pirats 1,3%
NPD 0,6%
ödp 0,6%

In 2014/15 a asylum center was put in the direct neighborhood. Crime rate went up, it was loud at day and night, women couldn't walk to the Train Station alone anymore, pollution was going up, it was a mess.
There were town hall meetings in which they really made their voice heard and were really upset about the current situation, Mayor and Representatives learned the hard way to sell Merkels policy.

In the 2016 state elections the result looked as follows (appr. 75% turnout, 1.032 eligible voters):

CDU 43,2% (-9,3)
Greens 19,9% (+1,4)
SPD 7,6% (-8,8)
Left 2,4% (-1,4)
FDP 5,6% (1,5)
Republicans 0,3% (-1,2)
Pirats 0,0% (-1,3)
NPD 1,5% (+0,9)
ödp 0,8% (+0,2)
Alfa 0,8% (new)
AfD 17,9% (new)

My conclusion is, that most German voters want to be upset about the policies, in the ballot box they vote for "this guy is nice", because "my grandma always voted it" etc.

A moderate candidate like Prof Meuther as head of the AfD campaign in the election couldn't get a really big result, I doubt that anyone of the 18% voting AfD would have voted different if Höcke was the candidate.

Because of 70 years of brainwashing in schools, in the media and everywhere else in this country, every party beside CDU has a ceiling between 15% and 25%. The persons are mainly irrelevant. My CDU parents will always prefer a CDU man telling them that they will change everything they did in the last years instead of an AfD man telling it.

[Klartext89]

I wrote a long text and then I was logged out and the text was blown away... What a year 2000 Website...

I'll go to lunch now to cool my anger now and write it again later...

*piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep* *piiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiep*

The internet censors fascists, there's hope for us all.

(I'm joking of course.)

Of course you are, otherwise you wouldn't be able to post ;-) (I joked, too :-D)

But it's nice to have a fanboy, hopefully you're not searching for my posts exclusively.

[Klartext89]

German media outlets are reporting that SPD chairman and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel will step down from the SPD frontrunner position also known as "Kanzlerkandidat" (candidate for chancellor) tonight when SPD leading politicians wll meet and discuss the election campaign.

Seems that he delivered an interview to weekly magazine "Stern" in which he declared to quit the Job and is criticising Angela Merkel.

It's not confirmed yet but the cover of the magazine is already leaked:

http://meedia.de/2017/01/24/noch-vor-treffen-der-spd-parteispitze-sigmar-gabriel-verraet-dem-stern-seine-absage-an-kanzlerkandidatur/

Instead of Gabriel, it is widely expected that either Martin Schulz (former President of the European Parliament) or Olaf Scholz (First Mayor of Hamburg) will become the successor.

Edit: Schulz confirmed. Gabriel also to step down as Party chairman and Minister of Economy, he wants to become Foreign Affairs Minister.

[Klartext89]

Germany, or better spoken the coalition Partner SPD, is a laughing stock:

Brigitte Zypries, a former Justice Department (Attorney General) Minister, who never worked in the private sector, is becoming the new Economy Minister.

Sigmar Gabriel on the international floor will be totally embarrassing, even more than nominating an anti-German, anti-democracy, arrogant, EU-extremist frontrunner...

If it weren't my country, I would be laughing, too.

[Klartext89]

All polls have shown Schulz to be far more popular than Gabriel as Chancellor. Below ARD from December. Interesting to see whether this will be reflected in the SPD's numbers.

I doubt that.

As soon as the people will learn more about Schulz than seeing him shaking hands in 30 second Tagesschau Videos, his numbers will fall to Gabriel level or even lower. There's no person who represents everything what is wrong with todays politics better than this guy. Washington is open and near to the people compared to him.

Also, in 2009 Steinmeiers numbers were at appr. 30%, 2013 Steinbrück had even 35%. Both times, the SPD couldn't reflect.

[Klartext89]

I was reminded of this: why is the electoral threshold in the European elections considered to be unconstitutional but the threshold in the federal election is not?

Because the federal elections are important, and the European elections are unimportant.

Well, actually the reasoning was like this: The Bundestag parties must be able to form a stable government and therefore it is of an advantage to have fewer parties in the parliament. On the other hand, the European Comission isn't formed by the European Parliament as such so it doesn't really matter if there are a trillion parties represented in the parliament.

Well, that's the old parties politicians answer, which is highly laughable cause without CDU and Left every party is having coalitions with each other on state levels.

We have CDU dealing with Greens and SPD (there are no CDU/FDP coalitions left but we all know that they would if they could), we have SPD dealing with CDU, Greens and FDP. We have Greens and FDP in coalitions with SPD, we have Left in coalitons with SPD and Greens.

Forming a stable government isn't harder if 4-6% small parties enter Bundestag. The only reasons why the highly party/politically influenced High Court isn't intervening and is currently upholding this ridiculous situation in which you don't have thresholds in local and European level but on state and federal level, is that every small party seat would mean that a Rep from an old party would lose its seat ;-)

Appr. 7 million people decided to participate on the democratic process and cast a vote in the last federal election but aren't represented in parliament (http://www.election.de/cgi-bin/tabres.pl?datafile=btw13.txt) - this is simply shameful.

[Klartext89]

Well, INSA made the same poll for BILD and it Shows a very different picture:

"Whom would you vote for?

Merkel 36,6%
Schulz 22,9%
None of them 30,4%
Don't know 8,1%
Refused 1,9%

Excluded Dk and R:

Merkel 40,7%
Schulz 25,5%
None 33,8%


Well, I guess he's getting a few nice polls from the governments channels and from SPD-Forsa, but there's a big Information campaign going on in the social networks about Schulz and therefore it won't last long.

[Klartext89]

Well, INSA made the same poll for BILD and it Shows a very different picture:

"Whom would you vote for?

Merkel 36,6%
Schulz 22,9%
None of them 30,4%
Don't know 8,1%
Refused 1,9%

Excluded Dk and R:

Merkel 40,7%
Schulz 25,5%
None 33,8%


Well, I guess he's getting a few nice polls from the governments channels and from SPD-Forsa, but there's a big Information campaign going on in the social networks about Schulz and therefore it won't last long.

You shilling for Merkel now, Klartext?

LOL, u know the answer ;-) But I'm sure that 30% neither is way closer to the truth than 11%.

[Klartext89]

while this poll could easily be right you need to take everything INSA said with a ton of salt.

and sure...pro-gov channels are going to hype schulz....and forsa is pro-cdu or nothing.

Sorry for laughing but it's always the same with Leftists: Always critizising INSA while you never read a bad word about Forsa-Güllner or Allensbach. Meanwhile, INSA has the best track record in the last state elections (2016) and the three left parties are polling higher with them than e.g. with Infratest or FGW. Forsa and Infratest have the left parties 0.5 points higher than INSA. Only AfD is better with INSA than with the others (except Infratest) and CDU is lower than with others. I can tell you why: There are lots of normally CDU voting people like my parents e.g. who really dislike Merkel and her refugee policies and are considering voting AfD but could also swing back in an election campaign.

You need to take every poll with a ton of salt. None of them is truly independent.

Forsa has a SPD member as CEO (or owner?) who openly hates AfD and is working for Stern/RTL.
Infratest works for ARD.
FGW works for ZDF
Emnid with BamS
Allensbach with FAZ
etc.

[Klartext89]

You need to take every poll with a ton of salt. None of them is truly independent.

long story short:

my problem is not the bias of INSA but their methods.

the other  pollsters are more or less transparent re: their work, bias or not, INSA's way of success is something like an educated guess out of nothing. finally the special sauce is taking over the business.

and ofc i know of their track record but you or I could have done the same if we wanted to.....just take an average of everbody else and bet against the coalition and on AfD.

seems more like a scam to me but well....maybe that's the only way to break through the reality of permanently lying voters.

I love the crosstabs of US polls, would love to see the samples for German polls.

[Klartext89]

First poll (I assume) totally taken after the SPD "change":

Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl • Infratest dimap/ARD: CDU/CSU 35 %, SPD 23 %, AfD 14 %, GRÜ 9 %, LIN 8 %, FDP 6 %

Compared to last time (5th of January) it's SPD up 3, CDU/CSU down 2, AfD down 1, FDP up 1, Left down 1.

Well, there's an effect but way smaller than I expected. I guess Schulz got some CDU/SPD mainstream low information voters back and a bit "former SPD"-voters from the Left while AfD and FDP exchanged some former CDU/CSU backers because of the Höcke controversy.

[Klartext89]

The guy spent 2 decades in Brussels. I'm pretty sure the CDU is sitting on an array of scandals that it'll release in due time.

the cdu is risking alienating their lower middle class supporters if they hit him the wrong way...he surely is a more tricky enemy than gabriel.

otherwise i agree, there is too much anti-eu sentiment to surive.

Schulz gets hyped by the media in a scale never seen before. They are cheering about him like minstrel in former times about their King. It's pretty funny and I'm very sure that this anti-democratic, anti-German wolf in sheep costume will get a beating in September.