Iceland 2009
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Author Topic: Iceland 2009  (Read 13353 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: January 23, 2009, 08:21:33 AM »

A General Election has been called for May. Current P.M is standing down (cites health reasons).
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Hashemite
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2009, 08:27:56 AM »

A poll I saw a while ago had the biggest ruling party in third (Independence, or conservatives), behind the Socialdemocrats and whatever the red-greenies call themselves.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2009, 08:28:58 AM »

Aha. Here it is: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/32339/social_alliance_leads_rivals_in_iceland
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Verily
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2009, 01:00:53 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2009, 01:03:01 PM by Verily »

The Prime Minister of the country hit hardest by the economic crisis has been forced to resign, and elections will take place in May. The government is currently a coalition of the right-wing Independence Party and the left-wing Social Democratic Alliance, with the PM coming from the former.

Results of the 2007 election:

Independence Party: 25 seats, 36.6% of the vote (center-right/Christian democratic)
Social Democratic Alliance: 18 seats, 26.8% (center-left)
Left-Green Movement: 9 seats, 14.3% (green/socialist)
Progressive Party: 7 seats, 11.7% (centrist/liberal)
Liberal Party: 4 seats, 7.3% (right/xenophobic)
Iceland Movement - Living Land: no seats, 3.3% (green)

No polls that I can find.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2009, 01:07:15 PM »

Threads merged Smiley
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Verily
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« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2009, 01:19:15 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2009, 01:21:54 PM by Verily »

My apologies Smiley

That November poll would be quite the revolutionary result for Iceland. Not least since the Independence Party has been the largest party since at least 1946.
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Verily
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« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2009, 01:22:54 PM »

May 9 for the election date, by the way.
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Verily
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« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2009, 01:26:51 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2009, 04:20:55 PM by Verily »

More recent poll shows massive upheaval in the electoral landscape and a shift towards the radical left:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LM763367.htm

Left-Green Movement: "28%"
Independence Party: 24.3%
Progressive Party: 17.2%
Social Democratic Alliance: 16.7%

The radical right-wing Liberal Party is not mentioned.
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Verily
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« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2009, 04:19:41 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2009, 04:23:12 PM by Verily »

More recent poll shows massive upheaval in the electoral landscape and a shift towards the radical left:

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/LM763367.htm

Left-Green Movement: "28%"
Independence Party: 24.3%
Progressive Party: 17.2%
Social Democratic Alliance: 16.7%

The radical right-wing Liberal Party is not mentioned.

Of all places, DailyKos had the full poll results (presumably because it shows the left surging).

Vinstrihreyfingin (Left-Green): 28.5%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (Independence): 24.3%
Framsóknarflokkurinn (Progressive): 17.2%
Samfylkingin (Social Democrats): 16.7%

---

Liberals: 3.3% (Xenophobes below the threshold! Grin)
Icelandic Movement: 2.2%
Other/Unsure: 7.9%
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Hashemite
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« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2009, 04:23:17 PM »

Parties-and-elections.de lists the Liberal Party as "liberal". Uber-lol. Ironically, their name in Icelandic is abbreviated FF, which they certainly are not.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2009, 04:44:18 PM »

My apologies Smiley

That November poll would be quite the revolutionary result for Iceland. Not least since the Independence Party has been the largest party since at least 1946.
And the Progressives in second place for most of that time.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2009, 08:43:41 AM »

BBC News is reporting that the Commerce Secretary has resigned.
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Jens
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« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2009, 11:10:10 AM »

The Prime minister has resigned today and the government coalition has collapsed. The socialdemocrats will probably govern as a caretaker goverment until election day.
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Verily
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« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2009, 12:53:42 PM »

Also...

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/majority_in_iceland_wants_currency_change/

Iceland may petition to join the Eurozone after the upcoming election. Independence has been softening its anti-EU stance for the past few years, but the Left-Greens are very strongly pro-EU, and the other parties are not opposed. If the Left-Greens really do surge into largest party status, well, things will change.

(It's also worth noting that, despite the EU's objections, Montenegro and Kosovo use the Euro unilaterally, and Iceland could probably get away with it if they wanted to.)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2009, 12:59:33 PM »

Might be worth asking the British on their current opinions...
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afleitch
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« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2009, 02:01:55 PM »

Might be worth asking the British on their current opinions...

Anything like this happening in the UK would effectively kill the Labour Party. Even I don't want that to happen.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2009, 02:07:31 PM »

I think he meant as in "opinion about joining the Euro" rather than...
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afleitch
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2009, 02:24:56 PM »

I think he meant as in "opinion about joining the Euro" rather than...

I think economic collapse is more likely than joining the Euro.

However Pound v Euro is one of the most disengaging topics for me. I'll back either at a push.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2009, 04:01:34 PM »

Also...

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/majority_in_iceland_wants_currency_change/

Iceland may petition to join the Eurozone after the upcoming election. Independence has been softening its anti-EU stance for the past few years, but the Left-Greens are very strongly pro-EU, and the other parties are not opposed. If the Left-Greens really do surge into largest party status, well, things will change.

(It's also worth noting that, despite the EU's objections, Montenegro and Kosovo use the Euro unilaterally, and Iceland could probably get away with it if they wanted to.)

The Progressive Party became in favour of joining the EU now. They dropped their past opposition to it.
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Verily
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« Reply #19 on: January 26, 2009, 04:22:04 PM »

I think he meant as in "opinion about joining the Euro" rather than...

I think economic collapse is more likely than joining the Euro.

However Pound v Euro is one of the most disengaging topics for me. I'll back either at a push.

In the short term. But, if the pound drops below the Euro in value and then remains below the Euro for a prolonged period, you may see a drastic reversal of opinion.

Anyway, I think Iceland applying for EU membership maybe even within the year is now highly likely. Fishing rights are the least of their concerns right now. Amusingly, Iceland's current economic turmoil might mean it falls below EU standards on some economic barometers.
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Јas
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« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2009, 06:34:02 AM »

This week's Economist, probably already out of date, has an interesting piece on this.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2009, 09:56:44 AM »

Might be worth asking the British on their current opinions...

Anything like this happening in the UK would effectively kill the Labour Party. Even I don't want that to happen.
The Labour Party would never die.

It would probably recreate the early 80s, though.

But yeah, I meant on the Euro - as it seems that much of the reason Britain's banks are in even worse trouble than ours is the perceived weakness of British central banking as viz. the ECB - but it would probably be wiser to postpone the question until that's become even more glaringly apparent (not that I'm hoping that happens - or that I think that certain or near-certain. I don't. I certainly don't consider it unlikely, though.) Of course memories of 1992 (or '3?) and of whenever Labour went cap-in-hand to the IMF also play a role there.
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« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2009, 11:31:01 PM »

Independence Party: 25 seats, 36.6% of the vote (center-right/Christian democratic)
Social Democratic Alliance: 18 seats, 26.8% (center-left)
Left-Green Movement: 9 seats, 14.3% (green/socialist)
Progressive Party: 7 seats, 11.7% (centrist/liberal)
Liberal Party: 4 seats, 7.3% (right/xenophobic)
Iceland Movement - Living Land: no seats, 3.3% (green)

That has to be the most humorously misnamed bunch of parties I've ever seen.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2009, 07:02:23 AM »

Independence Party: 25 seats, 36.6% of the vote (center-right/Christian democratic)
Social Democratic Alliance: 18 seats, 26.8% (center-left)
Left-Green Movement: 9 seats, 14.3% (green/socialist)
Progressive Party: 7 seats, 11.7% (centrist/liberal)
Liberal Party: 4 seats, 7.3% (right/xenophobic)
Iceland Movement - Living Land: no seats, 3.3% (green)

That has to be the most humorously misnamed bunch of parties I've ever seen.
Hm? The Independence Party's name dates from when Iceland wasn't independent yet. "Progress" for Liberal (euro sense) parties is hardly surprising - although this one is sort of a fusion of that and an agrarian (what in continental Scandinavia is called a "center") party.
You're right about the Liberal Party being misnamed, o/c.
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Verily
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« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2009, 11:51:18 PM »
« Edited: January 28, 2009, 11:53:20 PM by Verily »

Update on the current political climate. The SDA has convinced the President to let them run the interim government until the elections in May in coalition with the Left-Green Movement and the Progressive Party. Johanna Sigurdardottir of the SDA will very likely be the interim Prime Minister.

She will also be, as far as I can tell, the first openly gay head of government in the world. Correct me if I'm wrong.
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