Greece parliamentary election - September 20, 2015

[Vosem]

For what it's worth, one poll has the following results :

Syriza 24
ND 22
XA 6
Potami 5.5
Pasok, KKE, LAE 4.5
EK 4
Anel 3.5
Others 5

That would put Syriza around 110-115 seats, not anywhere near a majority, and in need for probably 2, possibly 3, coalition partners, if we exclude ND.

Is there any possibility that--God forbid--ND could be the plurality party?

Well, this is the only poll conducted after the election call. SYRIZA is barely leading ND, by single digits, and the rumor on AH.com is that Zoe Konstantopoulou and fmr. Finance Minister Varoufakis are planning to break off of SYRIZA to form yet another breakaway group (unconnected with LAE). ND has a shot to win at the moment, but if SYRIZA really undergoes another round of defections ND may yet become favored.

[Vosem]

Switch the bonus and you get a centre-right majority of ND, Potami and Union of Centrists.

Isn't ND-Potami-PASOK much more workable and easier? I believe the Union of Centrists has a stated ambition of becoming SYRIZA's junior partner in a coalition.

[Vosem]

Notably for the next election, whenever it may happen, is that LAE+AnTARSYA were well over the threshold (indeed, such a coalition would be ahead of EK and ANEL under present figures) and that there is positive precedent for a small revolutionary party to exit then reenter Parliament; Synaspismos, SYRIZA's predecessor, fell beneath the threshold in 1993 but reentered Parliament in 1996. So we may not be seeing the end of these guys at all.

Also, it should be noted that there seem to be three "tiers" of parties in Greece. There are 4 main parties that crossed the threshold in every peripsereia; SYRIZA, ND, Golden Dawn (eek), and slightly-resurgent PASOK. There are 5 parties that crossed in some places but not others; KKE, Potami, ANEL, EK, and LAE (all but the last of these entered Parliament); and then numerous minor parties that did not cross the threshold anywhere, of which AnTARSYA is the largest.

Lastly, what exactly is the ideology of the Union of Centrists? I've seen them referred to as "crazy" and a "protest vote" a lot, but the only indication of their ideology that Wikipedia gives is that they seem to have a hard-on for Eleftherios Venizelos. (One of the largest minor parties, called Koinonia, also seems to have no policies but hero-worship for Ioannis Kapodistrias -- are they about to surge?) Why is their name non-indicative? (They and PASOK were the only parties to gain more than a single seat in Parliament at this election, so they can be seen as the "winners" to some extent).