Mexican state and local elections 2009

[ag]

On Sunday elections in a single Mexican municipality - Tulum in Quintana Roo state. The reason for these is simple: Tulum has just been split from Playa del Carmen (Solidaridad), so it is the first elected local government there.  The results are great for the PRI (in local coalition w/ PVEM): 65% on the preliminary count, against 17% for PAN and 15% for PRD. Though not really surprising for that part of QR, this is still a very good news for Mexico's Grand Old Party.

It so happens, that these are the only elections anywhere in Mexico this year before July 5. But on July 5 we will have a real midterm extravaganza. The following will be on ballot

1. The entire lower House of the federal Congress
2. Governors in Campeche, Colima, Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, San Luis Potosi and Sonora
3. State Legislatures in Campeche, Colima, Mexico City, Mexico State, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Nuevo Leon, Queretaro, San Luis Potosi and Sonora
4. Municipalities in  all the states that hold legislative elections.

The registration of "pre-candidates", as they are called here, has just started - some primary races, where they are held, might be interesting.

Unfortunately, there will be no early specials this year, besides Tulum, so we won't have another test (3 years ago Mexico State held its polls in March - a strong result by PRD presaged its near-victory in the general). We'd have to wait for July.

Of the 6 states that hold governors' races, 4 are now controlled by the PRI and 2 (Queretaro and SLP) by PAN. PRI would, obviously, like to retake those, while PAN will attempt to retake Nuevo Leon after a 6-year hiatus (they might also try to counter-attack in others, especially in Sonora). On present trends PRI is favored (hard to see PRD gaining any of the big states - if any at all - it's just not their area). PRD will try to keep its overwhelming dominance in Mexico City against PAN, and expand in Mexico State and Morelos (though, especially in the former, it might have maxed out 3 years ago). Internal splits in PAN and, especially, PRD should help the (this time united) PRI.

[ag]

An early poll of voting intentions for the July 5 federal congressional elections was published a week ago (Feb. 9) in El Universal. Among the "likely voters" the result is:

PRI 39.9%
PAN 25.1%
PRD 15.4%

[Hash]

Has the PAN been one of the world's governing parties hurt by the economic crisis?

[ag]

Has the PAN been one of the world's governing parties hurt by the economic crisis?

Not yet, really. It's just that the PRI is the only one of the major parties that currently has a competent leadership and hasn't been dealing w/ major internal infighting

[ag]

So, I've been delinquent on reporting, but a brief summary.

The election is still on July 5 (the campaign has been somewhat delayed by the swine flu mess, but the election date is unchanged). The latest congressional poll (in a midterm election only the lower Chamber of Deputies is up for election) from Reforma yesterday (I don't have the paper in front of me, so I may goof up slightly on the details) is as follows (% of likely voters):

PRI 37
PAN 33
PRD 16
PVEM 6? (double-check)
PT 4? (I have to double-check)
Panal 2
Convergencia 2
PSD 1
Intend to deposit an invalid ballot: 5%

(the threshold for PR representation is 2%, a party that doesn't get accross gets disbanded).

Of the 5 PR "circunsriptions" PAN is strongly ahead in the Northeast and slightly ahead in the Northwest, PRI is ahead in the West, Center and South (PRD is close second in the Center, third elsewhere). Not much to guide us on FPTP constituencies.

The 5% "blank vote" share is due to a popular "anti-party" campaign going on. Both the Electoral Commission and all the parties are diligently trying to pursuade the populace that horrid things would result if many people deposit invalid ballots - but, it seems, the more the parties protest, the stronger is the "spoil your ballot" campaign (the proportion of people planning to spoil the ballots has doubled in a month).

The biggest intrigue seems to be if PRI+PVEM together would be able to have a simple majority (251 seats) in the Chamber. Seems less likely now - PAN has recovered somewhat (as did the left). Still, it is almost certain PRI will be the largest party in the House.

Juicy details once I have time.

[big bad fab]

Mmmm...

Swine flu seems to have been good for PAN and maybe war on drug too, but not enough.

What are the infightings in PAN ?

And how can the PRI leadership be competent ?

[Hash]

(the threshold for PR representation is 2%, a party that doesn't get accross gets disbanded).

What does that mean? Does a party need to disband if it doesn't cross 2%?

[jaichind]

A poll by El Universal 5/29-6/1 has

Has
PRI       43.3%
PAN      35.8%
PRD      14.4%
Others   6.4%

[ag]

(the threshold for PR representation is 2%, a party that doesn't get accross gets disbanded).

What does that mean? Does a party need to disband if it doesn't cross 2%?

Yep. It's officially liquidated after an election: it looses its registration, it can't nominate candidates (all those elected locally become independents), it looses public subsidies/access to TV, etc., all the party property has to be sold. Of course, nothing prevents its leaders from registering a new party (under a new name, though, I believe). However, if it gets 2%, it gets the full representation.

[ag]

A poll by El Universal 5/29-6/1 has

Has
PRI       43.3%
PAN      35.8%
PRD      14.4%
Others   6.4%

I believe, there's been a more recent El Universal poll w/ the two leaders somewhat closer (or else, these are not the "likely voter" numbers). I will try to find it.

Actually, Reforma numbers for May were similar: PRI 41, PAN 34, PRD 14.

[ag]

Mmmm...

Swine flu seems to have been good for PAN and maybe war on drug too, but not enough.

What are the infightings in PAN ?

And how can the PRI leadership be competent ?

Yep, PAN seems to have been treated well by the flu. Being close second will, actually, be viewed as a success, as long as PRI+PVEM together can't form a majority coalition (at present, the House leadership posts are rotated among the "big three" - if PRI(+PVEM) have a majority, they may lock the others out). And if they also manage to pick up the Nuevo Leon governorship from PRI (it's too close to call right now, but PAN is, generally, doing good in the region), they will be viewed as home dry. For this reason PAN has been campaigning very negatively, trying to destroy the PRI: they now care less about increasing their own vote, they want to decrease that of the PRI.

PRI leadership is competent: what's surprising? These people know what they are doing, and, at present (perhaps, unusually, by historical standards) none of the top leaders are known serial killers: in the country of low expectations this is, generally, enough

The PAN infighting has somewhat died down for the campaign season. The big infighting is on the left - and that shows up in the polls. PT should do well, taking a big chunk of the PRD vote (whether Convergencia, which is now allied w/ PT, manages to get its 2% is questionable, though). The infighting is quite juicy - I will report on it later.

[big bad fab]

Mmmm...

Swine flu seems to have been good for PAN and maybe war on drug too, but not enough.

What are the infightings in PAN ?

And how can the PRI leadership be competent ?

Yep, PAN seems to have been treated well by the flu. Being close second will, actually, be viewed as a success, as long as PRI+PVEM together can't form a majority coalition (at present, the House leadership posts are rotated among the "big three" - if PRI(+PVEM) have a majority, they may lock the others out). And if they also manage to pick up the Nuevo Leon governorship from PRI (it's too close to call right now, but PAN is, generally, doing good in the region), they will be viewed as home dry. For this reason PAN has been campaigning very negatively, trying to destroy the PRI: they now care less about increasing their own vote, they want to decrease that of the PRI.

PRI leadership is competent: what's surprising? These people know what they are doing, and, at present (perhaps, unusually, by historical standards) none of the top leaders are known serial killers: in the country of low expectations this is, generally, enough

The PAN infighting has somewhat died down for the campaign season. The big infighting is on the left - and that shows up in the polls. PT should do well, taking a big chunk of the PRD vote (whether Convergencia, which is now allied w/ PT, manages to get its 2% is questionable, though). The infighting is quite juicy - I will report on it later.

[Hash]

(the threshold for PR representation is 2%, a party that doesn't get accross gets disbanded).

What does that mean? Does a party need to disband if it doesn't cross 2%?

Yep. It's officially liquidated after an election: it looses its registration, it can't nominate candidates (all those elected locally become independents), it looses public subsidies/access to TV, etc., all the party property has to be sold. Of course, nothing prevents its leaders from registering a new party (under a new name, though, I believe). However, if it gets 2%, it gets the full representation.

That's uhm... a weird law. Interesting. France needs one like that, maybe we'd loose the stupid fringe.

Anyways, what are the chances PANAL breaks the 2% threshold? They're, to me, the most decent party out there.

[ag]

(the threshold for PR representation is 2%, a party that doesn't get accross gets disbanded).

What does that mean? Does a party need to disband if it doesn't cross 2%?

Yep. It's officially liquidated after an election: it looses its registration, it can't nominate candidates (all those elected locally become independents), it looses public subsidies/access to TV, etc., all the party property has to be sold. Of course, nothing prevents its leaders from registering a new party (under a new name, though, I believe). However, if it gets 2%, it gets the full representation.

That's uhm... a weird law. Interesting. France needs one like that, maybe we'd loose the stupid fringe.

Anyways, what are the chances PANAL breaks the 2% threshold? They're, to me, the most decent party out there.

They should get it: they belong to the Teachers' Union, so they are guaranteed a certain number of votes.

And no, they aren't a particularly decent party. They were created before the 2006 election "for sale" by some grads of the school I work in (it takes some time and effort to register a party, but, once registered, a party is a valuable commodity) and when the Teachers' Union leader (Elba Ester Gordillo) got kicked out of the PRI she bought it for her own needs.  This gives her a decent way of organizing a voting block and some time on the TV (in the 2006 elections she used it to screw the PRI). Actually, there are certain things I like about them (they were vehemently opposed to the ridiculous recent reforms in the electoral law - and went to court to try to overturn these), but, overall, one shouldn't forget that the Mexican Teachers' Union is a mafioso organization, only slightly less dangerous than the Gulf Cartel (and a much more powerful one, for that matter - and, long term, the much more harmfull one for Mexico).

[ag]

So, I've promised some color on the elections. Don't have much time, but here is some. The biggest color comes from the fights within the major camps these days.

Actually, on the right the panista fights are boring. The former party president, Manuel Espino (he is now the president of the Latin American Christian-Democratic organization), hates the current Calderonista party leadership under German Martinez.  For a while, it looked like this is going to be fun, but these days it doesn't seem to be getting much beyond Cassandra-ish pronouncements ("we've nominated a bunch of uncharismatic candidates, who are going to loose even in our strongholds, this is all because the leadership is out of tune w/ the party rank-and-file, etc., etc., etc.) - boring stuff, unless we get into the fine detail (and even then, only interesting for the real panistas). The true fun is on the left. But what fun! On this, my next post.

 

[Hash]

Which faction dominates the PRI these days anyways? The left? right? centre?

[ag]

First some pre-history.

After his narrow defeat in 2006, as everybody knows, the leftist candidate Lopez Obrador declared himself "legitimate president", formed a "government" and went roaming around the country, having promised to visit every single of the 2400+ municipalities (he's recently finished it), in the process registering supporters for his "Broad Progressive Front" (FAP). From the start it was clear that he planned to create structures beyond his own party (PRD): the FAP heavily relied on the minor leftist coalition partners (Convergencia and PT) and attempted to recruit activists directly, from outside the parties.

Not everybody in the PRD liked it. Now, the PRD has always consisted of "tribes". Originally, it's been a coalition of a) True Left (old Commies sacrificed their partisan registration to get the new party going) b) PRI left (the left wing of the Old Party, headed, originally, by Cardenas, and including Lopez Obrador) and c) Sidekick Left (minor left-wing parties, that had always existed in the shadow of PRI, providing some degree of "multipartidism" for the system. The True Left is now, largely, gone - marginalized or absorbed into the other tribes. The PRI Left has split: some of the old Cardenistas are still sulking, whereas the Lopezobradoristas are actively trying to capture the party, having formed a faction formally known as the United Left. In contrast the Sidekick Left feels no particular attachment to Lopez Obrador, and has formed an alternative within-PRD grouping called the New Left (they are also known as Los Chuchos, after their leader Jesus (Chucho) Ortega) which openly fights the United Left. Furthermore, a number of regional governors (current and former) have their own support groups within the party. Finally, there is Lopez Obrador's successor as Mexico City mayor (Marcelo Ebrard), who, though not possessing much charisma has inherited a chunk of the local organization and, though friendly with Lopez Obrador, makes no secret that he himself wants to be the party's presidential nominee in 2012.

For a while, the main tension seemed to be in the states. Current peredista governors, naturally, felt it essensial to cooperate with the real ("illegitimate") president, so, eventually all of them "recognized" Calderon as such, disassociating themselves somewhat from Lopez Obrador (an exception has been Mexico City's Ebrard, who, at least until the recent flu crisis, would always avoid being seen in public w/ Calderon). In places this caused local splits, a particularly vicious being the one in Zacatecas, where the former governor, Sen. Ricardo Monreal, is firmly in the Lopez Obrador camp and in a bad spat w/ the current Gov. Amalia Garcia (in municipal elections, a brother of Monreal, having decamped to PT, has captured the state's largest city Fresnillo under that flag, while the PRD-PT split elsewhere gave the state capital to PAN and most of other municipalities to PRI;  by now the sides are gleefully accusing each other of being in the service of narcomafia - so far, it seems that, at least, some of the Monreal brothers, might actually be).

Still, nobody (other than the sulking Cardenas) seemed to be willing to openly go against Lopez Obrador. Then came the party's internal elections and it all went nuts.

[ag]

Which faction dominates the PRI these days anyways? The left? right? centre?

The tecnocrats have partially decamped to PAN. The rest are exhibiting touching unity (probably, having successfully split the fiefs). The party head, Beatriz Paredes, is on the PRI's moderate left. But, I'd say, she is letting the 1000 flowers bloom.

[ag]

In the party election the Lopezobradoristas and the Chuchos went head to head. Aside from some also-runs, the two main candidates for the party presidency were the United Left's Alejandro Encinas (one of the few surviving True Commies, a former Lopez Obrador deputy mayor and his temporary replacement as Mayor, when Lopez was running for president) and the New Left's Jesus Ortega (the Chucho himself). Lopez Obrador, technically, stayed out of the race, but he made no secret of his preference for Encinas.

The election day was a big disaster: they couldn't count the votes. On the election night the preliminary results showed Encinas winning, but in many of the states the votes were not being counted due to a formal protest, mostly, by the Encinas camp (the major Encinas complaint was, that many booths that never reported being opened still tried to report the - overwhelmingly pro-Chucho - results).  This time it was the New Left's turn to shout "voto for voto" - against the Lopezobradoristas. The hiatus lasted for months. In the process, the entire PRD commission in charge of verifying the results resigned. Lopez Obrador publically went for his own side (at some point trying to order Ortega to get lost in no uncertain terms - the order was vehemently and publically rebuffed; when somebody - perhaps, Ortega himself - told Lopez that he was behaving, as if he were the party, Lopez responded that he, in fact, was - a journalist's mike happened to be on). The New Left went to the electoral courts (Trife) to try to force the vote counting. Eventually, they first managed to install their "provisional leadership", and, finally, had the courts declare Ortega the winner.

Meanwhile, in Mexico City the United Left managed to, relatively uncontroversially, have its own representative (Alejandra Barrales) installed as the local party leader. Thus, there emerged the following situation: an anti-Lopez national leadership, a pro-Lopez capital city leadership, a non-factional Mexico City Mayor (technically loyal to Lopez, but with his own publically stated ambitions), and a bunch of "collaborationist" governors (some of them, quite openly antil-Lopez).

[ag]

As the campaign approached, Lopez Obrador was finding himself partially locked out of his own party - though not ready to openly leave it. The two minor left-wing parties (PT and Convergencia) stayed largely lopezobradorista: but, in both cases, their machinery is, actually, controlled by their own "strongmen", and Lopez, though very popular among the rank-and-file, cannot really rely on the leadership loyalty.  PT and Convergenica formally refused to join with the "New Left"-controlled PRD, and registered their own coalition (though locally in some places - for instance, in about half of Mexico City - the usual PRD-PT-Convergencia coalition is holding up).

At this point, Lopez made it public that he will go case-by-case: in some cases supporting PRD candidates, in other - the petistas (whether he formally supports them or not, PT and Convergencia candidates' posters frequently have his portrait that is bigger then their own - Lopez does not seem to object). At least, in the capital Lopez seemed to be firmly with PRD. In fact, as the local party leadership is loyal to him and in the local primaries lopezobradorista candidates did well (though the New Left did get some nominations, it is going to be sharply reduced in the city). The local PRD went as far as to refuse to coordinate the campaign w/ the national party (for instance, the posters within the city use different campaign slogans from those outside it; in fact, they don't really talk much at all).

Then, last week, there came the Iztapalapa ruling, and it all became chaos.

[ag]

Iztapalapa is just one of the 16 borroughs of Mexico City, but it is the largest and one of the poorest. It has nearly 2 million people, and is, in fact, one of the largest municipalities in the country. It is, traditionally, one of the PRD's major strongholds.

Iztapalapa used to be, more or less, the New Left territory. This time, though, PRD primary voters seemed to turn away from the faction.  On the election night the New Left "pre-candidate" for the post of the Iztapalapa delegado (a sort of "borrough president", though a bit more powerful), Silvia Oliva (herself, the wife of a former delegado and Congressman Rene Arce) was behind her lopezobradorista opponent, Carla Brugada. Oliva sued. The regional electoral chamber rejected her claims. Then, last week, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal overturned the lower chamber's ruling and ordered PRD to register Oliva as its candidate.

The local PRD leadership was, naturally, angry. To register her protest Alejandra Barrales took a "leave of absence" as the local party leader: the national party leaders would have to submit the court-ordered paperwork without her. But who really was rabid was Lopez Obrador. For a few days he tried negotiating, then he dropped a bomb: he would endorse the PT candidate, one Rafael (Juanito) Acosta.

But he would do it not so that Acosta could govern: in fact, he publicly ordered, in no uncertain terms, that, if elected Acosta resigns, so that Mayor Ebrard could appoint Brugada to the post.  Acosta did swear he would, but, incredibly, it turned out Ebrard was never consulted beforehand. In his usual (polite but ambiguous) manner Ebrard made that clear, before saying that, of course, he'd respect the wishes of Lopez in this case. In any case, he'd have an ample opportunity to renege, if he so likes, without making an open break: the appointment would have to be confirmed by the City Council. Of course, there is no question that the City Council will stay under the PRD control - it's quite another matter, though, for the United Left to have a majority on its own, or even w/ PT and Convergencia.

The official PRD leadership is now openly insensed. They've started to hint, that party members, who support candidates of other parties are supposed to be expelled from PRD (though they are saying, they'd only deal w/ it after July 5). Lopez says, he'll only go if forced to. His supporters are saying they'd all go with him, destroying the party.

Meanwhile, in Iztapalapa we have a true circus. It is too late to reprint the ballots, so Carla Brugada's name will stay. But all votes cast for Carla Brugada will be counted for Silvia Oliva. If you want Carla Brugada you are supposed to vote for Rafa Acosta (whom everyone knows, for some reason, as Juanito), who will resign in the hope that Carla Brugada would be nominated by the Mayor (and confirmed by the Council) instead. So, just to make clear: a vote for Carla is, really, a vote for Silvia. And to vote for Carla you should vote for Rafa, because Juanito promised Andres Manuel that he'd resign, so that Marcelo could nominate Carla (for an approval by a still unelected City Council). Everyone's with me?

[big bad fab]

Fascinating !

If you have some time, just one or two paragraphs on the great wings inside the PAN would be appreciated.
Is Calderon on the left or on the right of his party ?

[ag]

Fascinating !

If you have some time, just one or two paragraphs on the great wings inside the PAN would be appreciated.
Is Calderon on the left or on the right of his party ?

Very fast and only semi-serious (I will exaggerate a few things for effect, but, mostly, it's true). 

The biggest division in PAN is the "old-timers" vs. the "newcomers". Fox was a newcomer - he'd only been in the party for a couple of decades before his presidency Another newcomer is Santiago Creel, who was Fox's preferred successor. All these people, no matter how long they've been in the party and how much they've done in it, were not around in the mystical days of the party creation, so they can never become true panistas (of course, this is even more so for those attracted to the party already in its glory days of power).

Calderon is the archetypal new-generation old-timer. His parents were among the party founders. His father ran in some 20 gazzilion hopelessly quixotic campaigns (when he finally got elected to Congress, he resigned from the party - his own election was a clear sign that the party was becoming colaborationist). Calderon himself spent all his childhood assisting in the mystical quest for the holy honest vote (interspersing that sacred work with stints in law school and helping the poor). Eventually, he made a party carreer, raising to party presidency, national cabinet under Fox - and, finally, got the presidential nomination against Fox's wishes (poor Creel didn't know what hit him: when choosing between two uncharismatic characters, naturally, the party men went for their own boy - an outsider like Creel stood no chance there).

Like most old-timers, Calderon is a Christian (small-s) sociallist. Of course, there are two parts to that, and Calderon is among those, in whom socialism dominates, at least in public. There is no question, he is very religious, and closely linked to the religious establishment, but he, normally, avoids bringing that into his politics. And, for the most part, he presents an image of a modern, law-and-order, very socially conscious bleeding-heart moderate conservative.

There are, of course, others. El Yunque, the mystical order of militant catholics is, in the minds of many Mexicans, poised to descend from the Bajio plateau on the unsuspecting Mexico City, led by the armed monks and Legionaries of Christ, bringing with it the Medeival Darkness and the chants of Cristo Rey. Truth be told, the hard-core political Catholics are not a minor force in PAN, and, especially in some states, they've been not shy trying to impose policy (a spate of new anti-abortion laws in the states is currently notable). 

In general, Calderon is not believed to be at all close to Yunque, and his protege, the current party president Martinez might even be viewed as openly hostile. Espino, the currently dissident ex-president of PAN, was, if not in Yunque himself, then pretty close. The most prominent "Catholic ultra" in Fox's cabinet was Carlos Abascal (initially he was the Labor ecretary, later became the Secretary of State - in Mexico it is the Interior minister). Though out of office, he initially remained visible in Calderon years. However, he recently died of cancer, and I cannot immediately think of any similarly prominent clerical in the current gov't (probably, I am just ignorant - but, at least, nobody is very much in the front). For the most part, Calderon surrounds himself w/ those like himself: children of party old-timers, moderately Catholic but relatively modern and technocratic.

Ah, of course, there are also some free-marketeers in PAN (always been there). Poor souls, they don't have anywhere else to go, so they are stuck (as the greatest idealists of all, they also fit into the party with PAN's history - though Catholics tend to be more pragmatic). But they don't really matter much, so not worth talking about.

[big bad fab]

Very intesresting ! Your last paragraph is very laughable !
I thank you a lot.
My knowledge on Mexican politics is tiny and a bit old...

A pity we can't give rates to topics ! This one would be high.

[ag]

Very intesresting ! Your last paragraph is very laughable !
I thank you a lot.
My knowledge on Mexican politics is tiny and a bit old...

A pity we can't give rates to topics ! This one would be high.

My pleasure.

And I've only talked of 5 or 6 parties so far: there are 8 in total