2011 State Elections in Germany

[DL]

(At least Germany provides an interesting election year 2011, there are almost no good elections anywhere elese in the world next year, maybe Italy ...)

Uh; Spain (regionals), Finland, Turkey, Thailand, Ireland, Wales/Scotland/NI, Argentina, Peru, Denmark, Estonia, Nicaragua don't count?

You also forgot that there is about a 98% chance that Canada will have a federal election in 2011 - which promises to be very interesting (there will definitely be provincial elections in Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland too but i don't expect that to be riveting to non-natives)

[DL]

The FDP could just as easily drop below 5% and cause a Green/SPD majority.

[DL]

When has the SPD EVER formed a coalition with the CDU when they could get a majority just with the Greens? Just because something is mathematically possible doesn't make it politically possible. I suppose one could argue that another mathematically possible coalition would be made up of the CDU, the FDP and the Linke and Greens (ie: everyone except the SPD)

[DL]

I think I saw a brand new Forsa poll at the national level that had CDU support down 2%

[DL]

It seems to me that the real thing to watch closely in BW is whether or not the Linke Party clears the 5% hurdle and gets into the legislature. It looks to be very touch and go right now. If they do get over 5% then it probably makes it almost impossible for a pure CDU/FDP government. Would that mean CDU/SPD grand coalition or CDU/Green or traffic light.

[DL]

Wouldn't it be a real political earthquake if a "red/green" government (or "green/red") took power in Baden-Wurtemberg? Or even if the Linke party got in and forced a Grand coalition? If I'm not mistaken BW has had a CDU or CDU/FDP state government for as long as it has existed as a state. i don't think the SPD or any left of centre party has EVER had any role in government there. 

I have to think that if the CDU loses power there or has to govern with the SPD - there will be some major repercussions!

[DL]

Are there no exit polls in Sachsen-Anhalt? I don't se anything yet and its now past 18:00 local time

[DL]

oops, just realized we moved our clocks ahead an hour last week and they didn't in Europe so there is still 45 minutes to go!

[DL]

Is it possible to have a red-red-green coalition where the leader of the SPD becomes premier even though the Left party has slightly more seats because the Green party wants an SPD premier and the SPD and Greens together have more votes and seats than the Left party does?

[DL]

It seems like in all the eastern states - the presence of such a large Left Party only means CDU/SPD or SPD/CDU grand coalitions in power in perpetuity!!

[DL]

At this stage, are the networks just adjusting their exit poll numbers or are they getting real results from across the state and adjusting the projections accordingly?

[DL]

OK, well if they are getting real results now and basing projections on that - I think we are past the point where we could speculate on there being a large "shy NDP vote" that was missed by the exit polls but came out in the ballot box.

[DL]

Looking at the polls and the momentum - it seems more and more likely that BW will have a Red/Green or Green/Red coalition government. I suppose that the biggest question mark now is whether the SPD or the Greens get more seats since I assume that would determine whether the SPD leader or the Green leader becomes premier.

What would be the impact on German politics and on Merkel's standing if for the first time in history, the CDU is bounced out of any role in government in BW?

[DL]

What purpose does the FDP serve anyways? Why don't they just fold and merge with the CDU?

[DL]

One thing that few people have commented on is how badly the Linke party did in these state elections. I wonder if this could have some major ramifications for the next federal election in Germany. Right now the presence of the Linke party is a major obstacle to having a  progressive government and ditching the CDU. In the last election, they seemed to make some major gains in western Germany as a result of there being a lot of leftwing protest votes against the "Grand Coalition" and this combined with their traditional strength in the former DDR gave them 11% of the vote and a big enough chunk of seats in the Bundestag to seriously impair the chances of a new Red/Green government.

It now looks like with the SPD being in opposition federally and with the Green Party being on the move as well - the Linke party is starting to drop like a stone and will go back to being more or less a purely eastern party. This way mean them retreating back to the 6 or 7% nationally that they had as the PDS. I think this is significant because the weaker the Linke party is and the more their vote flows to the SPD and Greens, the better the chances of an SPD/Green majority in the Bundestag.

[DL]

An exit poll is still a poll - there is margin of error.

[DL]

This has been the case for almost all elections in Germany.

Exit Polls normally always underestimate the CDU by 1% and overestimate the Greens by about 1%.

I didn't notice that with exit polls in state elections in Hamburg of Sachsen-Anhalt and i don't remember that happening in the last federal election. In fact the biggest exit poll snafus that I remember were in the 2001 and 2005 elections when the exit polls significantly OVER-estimated the CDU vote compared to the final results.

[DL]

How come over 2/3 go for the left.  Yes I realize the federal government is not too popular, but here in Toronto we are a liberal city and we have a Conservative government federally, yet we voted for a Conservative mayor since we were tired of high taxes and out of control spending.  I can see the majority voting left, that makes sense, but 2/3 that is a lot.  As hockey commentator Don Cherry would say are there a lot of left wing pinkos who ride bicycles in Bremen?

Fist of all, you cannot compare party vote with proportional representation in Bremen to a non-partisan vote for mayor in Toronto that was all about personality. If you want to go down that road - then how do you explain David Miller (the "socialist" NDP former mayor) winning re-election in 2007 with 65% of the vote. Using your logic in 2007 2/3 of all Torontonians voted socialist!

German inner cities tend to vote for the left of centre parties. You will see this to an even greater degree in Sept. when Berlin has elections and the SPD, Greens and Linke will probably get about 75% of the vote between them. Think of it as being a bit like he way the Democrats totally dominate municipal government in cities like Chicago, San Francisco, LA etc...

[DL]

I should add that in countries like the UK and Germany and France where the same parties that compete in national elections compete in municipal elections, there is a tendency for people to use municipal elections as a protest vote. In the UK, its almost a given that anytime the Tories become the national government - after one or two local government election cycles - just about every major urban centre in the country is a Labour Party one-party state!

[DL]

Weren't the Greens originally founded as a leftwing off-shoot from the SPD - by people who thought Helmut Schmidt was too rightwing and militaristic?

[DL]

is it fair to say that the SPD would rather form a new coalition with the Greens that continue to govern with the Left party?

[DL]

I suppose that one reason why the SPD might prefer a coalition with the Left party (if that is still an option) is that the Left party is so much weaker than the Greens. In a Red/Red coalition, the SPD could probably grab three-quarters of the cabinet seats. In a Red/Green government, the Greens would probably demand and expect close to half of the portfolios.

[DL]

This poll makes it look just barely possible that a red/green government would be possible. Would the spd go for that if it was mathematically possible?

[DL]

Where woulkd you situate the German parties on foreign policy, EU, military stuff etc...

[DL]

Wasn't the Green Party initially created by dissidents in the SPD in the 80s who wanted a nuclear freeze and opposed the cruise missile?