Finnish parliamentary election – April 19th 2015

[Helsinkian]

I noticed that there isn't a thread for this election, so I decided to start one.

Introduction

Finland will hold a parliamentary election on 19 April. 200 MPs will be elected using the proportional D’Hondt method with open lists. There is no electoral threshold.

The last election, in 2011, was marked by the rise of the Finns Party (or the True Finns, as they were still called back then). The government coalition was, regardless, formed without them as Jyrki Katainen became the Prime Minister of a mishmash coalition of six parties representing the political spectrum from right to left, colloquially called “Six-Pack,” and consisting of the National Coalition Party, the Social Democrats, the Left Alliance, the Green League, the Swedish People’s Party and the Christian Democrats. In 2014 the coalition shrank to four parties with the departure of the Left Alliance and the Greens, and Alexander Stubb became the new Prime Minister in the summer, when Katainen opted to leave for Brussels.

Finnish politics has a tradition of government coalitions crossing the left–right –divide. There are no permanent political blocs, unlike in Sweden or Denmark. Though the National Coalition Party, the Centre Party, the Swedish People’s Party and the Christian Democrats are collectively called “bourgeois parties”, 1991–1995 is the only period thus far in post-war history, when the government coalition was founded on those lines. The leaders of the major parties usually decline to comment on their preferred coalition makeup prior to the election. This ideological mixture does lead to problems sometimes: the Katainen/Stubb cabinet has been marked by internal strife and inability to reach agreement on several issues. Another tradition of Finnish politics is that the politicians prefer to form coalitions with strong majorities: 115–125 MPs is common. The current situation, where the government has a slim majority of 102 MPs (including the Speaker) is exceptional.

[Helsinkian]

Parties represented in the Parliament

National Coalition Party (20.4% and 44 seats in 2011, founded in 1918, leader: Alexander Stubb) – Finland’s main centre-right party, the NCP supports free markets, lowering taxes, continuing EU integration and applying for NATO membership. Its support is concentrated in and around the large urban areas, and it is particularly popular among entrepreneurs, people in a managerial position, civil servants and in general the upper middle class. 2011 was the first election in which the NCP was the largest party. For most of the Cold War era the party was kept outside of government because it was perceived as being too “pro-West”. Historically the NCP was a party of traditional values, often associated with the Finnish conservative motto “Home, religion, Fatherland”. This has changed in the 2000s, as the party has become more socially liberal, supporting, for example, same-sex marriage and multiculturalism. Though the party still has a social conservative wing, the liberals are now in the driver’s seat. Alexander Stubb himself has rejected the conservative label, though after becoming PM he has been careful not to cause more divisions within the party. Stubb himself is an EU enthusiast, who used to advocate openly for European federalism – after becoming PM he has backed away from that, but still supports strengthening the powers of the EU. After Stubb became PM, the NCP saw a brief bump in the opinion polls, but the party has since fallen again, and is now clearly the under-dog compared to the Centre Party. The NCP sits in the EPP group in the European Parliament.

Social Democratic Party of Finland (19.1% and 42 seats in 2011, founded in 1899, leader: Antti Rinne) – The main centre-left party, the Finnish Social Democrats are a significantly smaller force than their sister parties in Sweden or Norway, for example. SDP’s support has been in decline for a decade, and returning to the better side of 20% support seems very unlikely. 12.3% in the last year’s European election was a rock-bottom, though this was partially due to the SDP voters’ low turnout in a “second-rate election”. The Social Democrats are finding it especially hard to appeal to the under 30 demographic, as young left-wingers seem to prefer the Green League or the Left Alliance. The Social Democrats got a new chairman last year, when the trade union leader Antti Rinne defeated Jutta Urpilainen in a close race. Rinne is now the Finance Minister. Falling poll numbers were the chief reason for Urpilainen’s ousting, but Rinne has been unable raise the party’s support in any notable way. The SDP sits with S&D group in the European Parliament.

Finns Party, also known as True Finns (19.1% and 39 seats in 2011, founded in 1995, leader: Timo Soini) – A party describing itself as populist, nationalist and Eurosceptic, the Finns Party surged 15 percentage points in 2011, gaining 34 new seats. Though founded in 1995, the party has roots going back to the late 1950s, when its predecessor, the Finnish Rural Party, broke away from the Centre Party. Timo Soini has led the party from 1997, and will probably continue to lead it for some time. Until 2011 the party called itself “True Finns” in English, but has since began to use “Finns Party” (or sometimes “The Finns”) as a new translation – the party probably wanted to avoid the xenophobic image some associated with a name like “True Finns”. The Finnish name of the party (Perussuomalaiset) is closer to “Ordinary Finns”. The party’s Swedish name (Sannfinländarna), though, does literally mean “True Finns”.

Though often described as right-wing in the international media, many Finnish political scientists find the Finns Party hard to place on the left–right -axis: while its nationalism and social conservatism do point to the right-wing, the party’s economic policies have tended to be quite leftist. It should be noted, though, that the party includes people holding quite diverse views, and there are also those calling for a more right-wing approach. The Finnish Parliament’s seating arrangement, which is, at least in theory, based on the left–right -divide, places the Finns Party MPs in the middle part of the session hall. The party is critical of multiculturalism and immigration. However, while polls show that immigration is an important topic to the party’s voters, chairman Soini has never made it a priority, preferring to concentrate on Euroscepticism. The party does, however, have several prominent politicians, to whom immigration is the top concern. Even though the Finns Party is the most Eurosceptic party in the Finnish parliament, its brand of Euroscepticism has become somewhat milder over the years, and the party isn’t calling for Finland’s departure from the union. The Finns Party is strongly opposed to surrendering more of national sovereignty to Brussels, and it is a fervent critic of the bailouts of the crisis countries. Many political commentators believe that their criticism of EU’s bailout policies was the biggest single reason behind the party’s 2011 success.

The Finns Party actually led the opinion polls for a short time after the 2011 election, but has since slumped back to third or fourth place, falling short of the 19 percent they achieved four years ago. Soini will, no doubt, hope that Syriza’s success in Greece and the debt negotiations that may follow would again heighten Eurosceptic sentiments in Finland. Critics of Soini within the party blame the falling support on Soini’s attempts to make the party more mainstream by watering down some of their stances on issues like the EU or immigration. It should be noted that the Finns Party has never been the target of the kind of political exclusion that, for example, the Sweden Democrats have experienced from the other Swedish parties. In 2011 both the NCP and the SDP were willing to enter into a government coalition with the party, but back then it was the Finns Party that chose to remain in the opposition (because they would have had to compromise too much on their EU stances). Some in the party have since regretted this decision. In principle there is no obstacle for the party’s co-operation with any of the other large parties, as long as the party’s support doesn’t experience a total nosedive in the election. The Finns Party sits in the ECR group in the European Parliament, having left the EFD last summer together with the Danish People’s Party.

Centre Party (15.8% and 35 seats in 2011, founded in 1906, leader: Juha Sipilä) – Known as the Agrarian League until the 1960s, the Centre Party is first and foremost the champion of rural regions and small towns. It is especially strong in the Northern part of country. A party with long traditions of governing, the Finnish Centre Party is a substantially larger party than the Centre Parties of Sweden or Norway. In 2011 the Centre Party suffered a major electoral defeat (with many in its dissatisfied base voting the True Finns/Finns Party as protest) going from first to fourth place, but opinion polls now indicate that they are set to regain the status of the country’s largest party. Though a member of ALDE and the Liberal International, the Centre Party is by no means a typical liberal party due to its rural and agrarian nature, as their rural supporters tend to fall on the conservative side on social issues. When the Finnish Parliament voted on same-sex marriage a few months ago, 30 of the 36 Centre Party MPs voted against it (while most MPs of the supposedly conservative NCP voted in favour). The party is led by Juha Sipilä, a first term MP with a business background, who will likely become the next Prime Minister, considering the Centre Party’s big lead in the opinion polls.

During the Cold War the Centre Party embodied the spirit of “Finlandisation” more than any other Finnish party, not counting the communists. In recent times we have seen somewhat of a return to those times with some of the most prominent Centre politicians voicing criticism of the EU sanctions imposed on Russia. The main reason for the party’s sanction scepticism is the fact that the Finnish dairy producers and other agricultural producers are especially hard hit by the effects of the sanctions, as exports to Russia have suffered. Paavo Väyrynen, honorary chairman and three-time presidential candidate of the party (who in his 1988 doctoral thesis predicted that the Soviet Union would be eternal), recently suggested that Finland should officially acknowledge Crimea’s annexation into Russia. The Centre Party sits in the ALDE group in the European Parliament (but, as noted, it is not a typical ALDE party).

[Helsinkian]

Left Alliance (8.1% and 14 seats in 2011, founded in 1990, leader: Paavo Arhinmäki) – Founded in 1990 as a successor to the old Communist Party and its front organisation, the Finnish People’s Democratic League. In the 2000s the old communists have stepped aside to make room for a younger generation in the party’s leadership. The current leaders have positioned the Left Alliance as a “red-green” or an Eco-Socialist party. The party has recently been growing in the big cities like Helsinki, but it remains to be seen, for how long they are able to retain their traditionally strong support in Northern Finland. The party was a member of the government coalition in 2011–2014, but left the cabinet last spring in protest to the cuts in social welfare programs. This decision paid off in the European election, where they were able to regain their MEP seat. The Left Alliance sits in the GUE-NGL group in the European Parliament.

Green League (7.3% and 10 seats in 2011, founded in 1987, leader: Ville Niinistö) – Unlike many other Green parties of Europe, the leadership of the Finnish Greens usually avoids calling the party left-wing. But, although they have co-operated with the bourgeois parties, their policies are actually not that different from those of the Left Alliance. Among younger voters the Greens are viewed as a “trendy” party, and their support is especially high among students, academic professionals and reporters (the most popular party among reporters according to one survey). The Greens’ support is concentrated in the big cities of Southern Finland, and in Helsinki they are the second largest party. In the countryside their support is often almost non-existent. The Greens were in the cabinet until the fall of 2014, when they left the cabinet in protest against the other parties’ decision to grant a licence for the building of a new nuclear power plant. The Green League sits in the Greens-EFA group in the European Parliament.

Swedish People’s Party of Finland (4.3% and 9 seats, founded in 1906, leader: Carl Haglund) – A party of the Swedish speaking minority of Finland (who are circa 5.4% of the population). The SPP gets about 70 percent of the Swedish speaking votes. The SPP has been represented in the cabinet continuously since 1979. The other parties have found the SPP an easy partner to collaborate with, as it has been willing to support all sorts of policies in return for the other governing parties’ commitment not to weaken the position of the Swedish language (which is an official language alongside Finnish). The current Finnish political debate on the position of the Swedish language is concentrated on the question of mandatory Swedish teaching in schools. A recent opinion poll indicates that 74 percent of Finnish speakers want to make Swedish a voluntary school subject instead of a mandatory one. However, of the political parties, the Finns Party is the only one that supports that proposal. Aside from the language question, the SPP identifies itself as a liberal party (although the SPP Justice Minister recently said that blasphemy should remain punishable in Finland – not necessarily a very liberal stance). The SPP sits in the ALDE group in the European Parliament together with the Centre Party. Compared to other Finnish political parties, it is, however, ideologically closer to the National Coalition Party than the Centre Party: the SPP is economically right-wing and supports continued EU integration as well as applying for NATO membership. It will remain to be seen, whether the SPP will lose voters to the NCP now that the latter has a Swedish speaking (or a bilingual, rather) chairman. The single MP from the Åland islands sits in the same parliamentary group with the SPP, but the party doesn’t actually operate on Åland (and neither does any of these other parties).

Christian Democrats (4.0% and 6 seats in 2011, founded in 1958, leader: Päivi Räsänen) – A party for the religious and socially conservative people, the Christian Democrats broke away from the National Coalition Party in the 1950s. They are currently part of the government coalition, in which the chairwoman Päivi Räsänen (the only female leader of a parliamentary party at the moment) is the Minister of the Interior. Räsänen caused quite a controversy two years ago when she, as the Minister responsible for police affairs, said in a speech that a Christian must put the Bible above secular law. In the cabinet the Christian Democrats’ most notable achievement was ensuring that the cabinet didn’t propose a bill on same-sex marriage. However, this was all meaningless at the end, because such a bill was brought to the parliament via a citizens’ initiative, and was subsequently passed. Räsänen (a medical doctor herself) has also campaigned in favour of doctors’ and nurses’ right to refuse performing abortions. The Christian Democrats used to sit in the EPP group in the European Parliament back when they had an MEP, but they currently don’t have one.

[Helsinkian]

Parties outside the Parliament

Pirate Party – Like the name suggests, part of the European pirate movement.

Change 2011 – A party advocating direct democracy with binding referendums. Technically it isn’t an extra-parliamentary party, as it currently has one MP – a former Finns Party representative, who joined Change 2011 after his expulsion from the Finns Party.

Communist Party of Finland – Founded in the 1990s by the Marxist-Leninists of the old Communist Party’s far-left wing, who viewed the Left Alliance as too moderate.

Communist Workers’ Party – Another communist party, rival of the above mentioned communist party, even though most people can’t even tell, what separates the two.

Workers’ Party – A socialist party with roots in the Communist Workers’ Party.

For the Poor – A tiny Christian altruist party.

Independence Party – A hard-Eurosceptic party that wants Finland to leave the EU. Not really right-wing, though, as it has co-operated with communists in organising anti-EU protests. It has recently attracted some strongly pro-Putin candidates.

Blue and White Front – A tiny radical right party, whose main raison d’être seems to be taking a few votes that might otherwise go to the Finns Party. [Edit: this party isn't participating in the election.]

[politicus]

I noticed that there isn't a thread for this election, so I decided to start one.

Thanks a lot. I have been waiting for this one, but didn't want to set up a thread with so many Finnish posters on the forum.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, the nuclear plant that prompted the Greens leaving government was quite controversially backed by a Russian owned company.

[EPG]

Thanks to Helsinkian. I like Finland, it's a nice country.

Can you tell me, why are Finnish parliamentary majorities so big? Why do small parties join governments when they lack decisive influence over their survival, and why do big parties happily share the spoils?

What's the mood of the people like in Finland these days? Unemployment seems to be getting worse.

[Helsinkian]

Unemployment will definitely be an important election theme, as will the slow economic growth in general (Finland's economic growth is currently among the slowest in all of EU).

Other likely election themes: relationship with Russia, and related to that, possible NATO membership (a majority of Finns oppose NATO membership, but if Sweden chooses to apply for it, I can't see Finland not doing the same – being the only non-allied country in the region would look odd); EU issues, especially related to Greece if and when Syriza wins that election; immigration etc.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Assuming that KESK will win a plurality, which parties are most likely to join in a coalition?

[Helsinkian]

Assuming that KESK will win a plurality, which parties are most likely to join in a coalition?

First of all, either the National Coalition Party or the Social Democrats (but probably not both). Surveys done on Centre Party regional representatives indicate that they would prefer the SDP, but if the SDP's election result is particularly bad, they might go with the NCP.

Centre Party may want to take the Finns Party into the coalition, fearing that keeping them in the opposition would again lead to the Centre supporters leaking in that direction. In addition they might hope that taking responsibility in the cabinet would lead to a fall in the support of a populist party like the Finns Party (which is exactly what happened with the Finns Party's predecesor party, the Finnish Rural Party, in the 1980s). If the Finns Party is left out, then the Centre Party may want to consider the possibility of going into coalition with both the NCP and SDP, even though that would make the Finns Party the strongest opposition voice against the traditional big parties – this scenario probably requires the Finns Party performing particularly badly.

Possible additional parties: Swedish People's Party, though its participation would be less likely if the Finns Party is included in the coalition. After 36 years in the cabinet it might be the time for the SPP to go to the opposition. Centre Party will probably want to avoid the Green League's participation, if possible, since the parties disagree on many issues relating to agriculture and nature protection. Christian Democrats may be too small after the election to matter, but if they manage to get 5-6 MPs, their participation could be possible (though not likely).

But a lot can happen; before the 2011 election not many would have correctly predicted the composition of the resulting coalition.

[politicus]

Any non-Centre Party based coalition possibilities?

Not that I see any, but it would make the election more interesting.

[Nortexius]

If Timo Soini refuses to make immigration the number one issue of his campaign as Jussi Halla-Aho has suggested, the party will be doomed in the April elections. True Finns-voters number one priority is immigration issues. Don't get me wrong, i do not believe True Finns-voters are single-issue voters. They care about the partys stance on the economy and the EU but the fact is that like the norwegian Progress Party the lifeblood of the True Finns is it's opposition to non-western immigration (especially from muslim countries). If Timo Soini thinks he can sweeps this issue under the rug in a quest for greater legitimacy, he's more delusional than i thought.

[EPG]

Any non-Centre Party based coalition possibilities?

Not that I see any, but it would make the election more interesting.

I am sure that if the government does well, the Green League could rejoin them to keep the Centre out.

God be with the olden days, when any combination of parties with over 100 seats would have been a potential coalition, regardless of ideology, except of course the National Coalition.

[EPG]

Totally wrong.

Before 1935 the governments were based on right wing parties (winners of the Civil War).
Thereafter the almost only possibility was Centre - SDP  coalition untill 1987. Sometimes it was added with Communists (called popular front) sometimes it was combined National Coalition Party (in fiftties) and few times either Centre or SDP were able to have minority government.
Actually there were one centre right majority government before left won significantly 1966.
It must be remembered that Centre shared ideas of universal wellfare state with Commies meaning that there were possibilty to .
Actually only since 1987 there have been rainbow coalitions (coalitions whitout Centre) since eternities.

No, I think I am right. Almost half the time, from 45-87, Finland had four-party government. The next most common option was five-party government. Four parties spent most of the time in government, including agrarians, anti-bourgeois social democrats and frequently-bourgeois Swedish speakers. The governments included communists, middle-class liberals, Swedish-speakers, and sometimes all three. These are all very unusual phenomena for European countries in the cold war (replace Swedish speakers with minority of choice), and of course the reason is the general tendency to exclude the National Coalition Party in favour of smaller parties. These parties didn't all share the same ideology just because they shared a government together - that is the fallacy of begging the question.

[windjammer]

Great thread!
Who are you supporting?

[H. Ross Peron]

Are the Social Democrats pro-nuclear power?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

@NatProg, KOK is most supportive, followed by KESK and then the Social Democrats. However all three parties do not have a uniform opinion on it.

The Greens, Left Alliance, the Finns and and the Swedish People's all oppose nuclear power.

[Helsinkian]

@NatProg, KOK is most supportive, followed by KESK and then the Social Democrats. However all three parties do not have a uniform opinion on it.

The Greens, Left Alliance, the Finns and and the Swedish People's all oppose nuclear power.

Finns Party used to be against it, but have become more supportive recently. In the most recent nuclear power plant vote in the Parliament their MPs were split: 19 in favour, 13 against, 3 abstaining.

[Vega]

Finnish inner politics are the worst. Especially with Kokoomus, Keskusta and the SDP. Nothing good comes from the big 3.

That being said, I'd be voting for the Pirate Party if I was a self respecting Finn.

[Helsinkian]

The YLE/Taloustutkimus poll for January shows Kokoomus slipping into third place:

Centre Party 26.0%
Social Democrats 17.2%
National Coalition Party 16.3%
Finns Party 14.8%
Green League 8.3%
Left Alliance 8.2%
Swedish People's Party 4.2%
Christian Democrats 3.5%
Others 1.5%

[FredLindq]

Why is KOK losing support?! Alexander Stubb seems like a intelligent och decent man.

[politicus]

Why is KOK losing support?! Alexander Stubb seems like an intelligent och decent man.

Well, he looks insane och tokig ..

[FredLindq]

Yes, but he is an Ironman!! :-)

[Helsinkian]

The National Coalition Party's downfall isn't entirely Stubb's fault: he has a role in it, but the whole party has attracted an image of being arrogant and removed from the reality of average people.

Last autumn Laura Räty, NCP Minister of Social Affairs and Health, wondered aloud, whether there really are people who make less than 2100€ per month (there are hundreds of thousands).

Some questions were also raised, when Stubb decided to name his former assistant, the 31 year old Sanni Grahn-Laasonen as Minister of the Environment, as the first term MP has little experience. Stubb said to reporters that he chose her, because he wanted to have a "good election team".

Stubb himself has gained a reputation for being a politician who is all about the image. He has been criticized for constantly taking selfies, participating in reality TV shows etc. On the day that the MH17 plane was shot down over Ukraine, Stubb was tweeting about his triathlon time.

[FredLindq]

Bring home Jyrki! :-)