Rothenberg Gubernatorial Rankings

[HappyWarrior]

CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)

Lol, sorry to burst the bubble but CA is not going to elect Jerry Brown in 2010.

If Jerry Brown drops dead between now and Election Day, yeah.

He will not win once he actually has to start campaigning.

He has been campaigning for what?  Six months?

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah, this is basically 2006 in reverse.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, this is basically 2006 in reverse.

Though it could be 1994: A subpar Republican that should probably lose wins a race for Governor of California anyway, causing long-term damage to the party as a whole!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Meg Whittman wins, this would not cause long term damage to the party in CA. You still need 2/3 rds vote in the state legislature to get anything done in Ca, its not based on majority rule. And she doesn't have the communication skills like Arnie had to get referendums done.

I think Brown wins about six points.

[Хahar 🤔]

And she doesn't have the communication skills like Arnie had to get referendums done.

Mind you, he wasn't able to get them passed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was able to get his budgets passed with a supermajority, he has more allies than she does.

[Хahar 🤔]

Not anymore, he doesn't. He basically governed as an independent; he had enough allies in good times, but nobody hesitates to desert him now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)

Lol, sorry to burst the bubble but CA is not going to elect Jerry Brown in 2010.

If Jerry Brown drops dead between now and Election Day, yeah.

He will not win once he actually has to start campaigning.

He has been campaigning for what?  Six months?

Actually, Brown hasn't campaigned much and is declaring today.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (6 R, 7 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * CT Open (Rell, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (2 R, 4 D)

    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * CO Open (Ritter, D)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * Strickland (D-OH)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 2 D)

    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * Perry (R-TX) #
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)
    * NY Open (Paterson, D)

Currently Safe (5 R, 4 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)

[nhmagic]

You know - I find it really interesting how everytime at the beginning of an election, no matter what state, these ratings always favor the more liberal candidate.  Perry is listed as narrow advantage for incumbent party yet CT Gov is already listed as lean takeover for the democrats (with no fantastic candidates announced that could take on a Simmons or Shays should one switch or enter the race).  And Maine is listed as narrow advantage for incumbent party, with no candidate selected and republicans already leading in the polls.  Ratings bias

[Eraserhead]

It looks like an awful lot of governorships are going to switch hands this year.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (6 R, 7 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ)
    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * CT Open (Rell, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Toss-Up (2 R, 4 D)

    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * CO Open (Ritter, D)
    * Quinn (D-IL)
    * Strickland (D-OH)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 3 D)

    * Gibbons (R-NV)
    * Perry (R-TX)
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * O'Malley (D-MD) *
    * Patrick (D-MA)
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)
    * NY Open (Paterson, D)

Currently Safe (5 R, 3 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D)

[HappyWarrior]

I don't understand why O'Malley has been moved....

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I don't understand why O'Malley has been moved....

He's spooging over a possible Ehrlich candidacy.

[Dan the Roman]

You know - I find it really interesting how everytime at the beginning of an election, no matter what state, these ratings always favor the more liberal candidate.  Perry is listed as narrow advantage for incumbent party yet CT Gov is already listed as lean takeover for the democrats (with no fantastic candidates announced that could take on a Simmons or Shays should one switch or enter the race).  And Maine is listed as narrow advantage for incumbent party, with no candidate selected and republicans already leading in the polls.  Ratings bias

To be fair its a usual problem for New England politics. No one actually knows anything, so you get crazy assertions like Susan Collins being in trouble. I frankly doubt Rothenberg could name a single gubernatorial candidate in Maine.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't look at Rothenberg Gubernatorial rankings, he ranks it by the stength of the candidates instead of Congressional Quarterly, ranking it by partisan index.  Michigan is very much a tossup that's where CQ has it.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest gubernatorial ratings.
# - Moved benefiting Democrats
* - Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (4 R, 7 D)

    * CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)
    * CT Open (Rell, R)
    * HI Open (Lingle, R)
    * VT Open (Douglas, R)
    * Culver (D-IA)
    * KS Open (Parkinson, D)
    * MI Open (Granholm, D)
    * OK Open (Henry, D)
    * PA Open (Rendell, D)
    * TN Open (Bredesen, D)
    * WY Open (Freudenthal, D)

Lean Independent (1 R, 0 D)

    * RI Open (Carcieri, R)

Toss-Up (3 R, 4 D)

    * Brewer (R-AZ) *
    * FL Open (Crist, R)
    * MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
    * CO Open (Ritter, D)
    * Patrick (D-MA) *
    * Strickland (D-OH)
    * WI Open (Doyle, D)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 3 D)

    * Perry (R-TX)
    * GA Open (Perdue, R)
    * O'Malley (D-MD)
    * Quinn (D-IL) #
    * ME Open (Baldacci, D)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 2 D)

    * Gibbons (R-NV) *
    * AL Open (Riley, R)
    * SC Open (Sanford, R)
    * NM Open (Richardson, D)
    * OR Open (Kulongoski, D) *

Currently Safe (5 R, 3 D)

    * Herbert (R-UT)
    * Heineman (R-NE)
    * Otter (R-ID)
    * Parnell (R-AK)
    * SD Open (Rounds, R)
    * Beebe (D-AR)
    * Lynch (D-NH)
    * NY Open (Paterson, D) #

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

About time he move Massachusetts to toss up.

[Nym90]

Pure Toss-Up
CO Open (Ritter, D)
CT Open (Rell, R)
FL Open (Crist, R)
ME Open (Baldacci, D)
MN Open (Pawlenty, R)
NM Open (Richardson, D)
OR Open (Kulongoski, D)
Strickland (D-OH)

Toss-Up/Tilt Republican
VT Open (Douglas, R)
WI Open (Doyle, D)
Quinn (D-IL)


Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat
O'Malley (D-MD)
Patrick (D-MA)
CA Open (Schwarzenegger, R)

Lean Republican
GA Open (Perdue, R)
MI Open (Granholm, D)
PA Open (Rendell, D)
Brewer (R-AZ)
Perry (R-TX)

Lean Democrat
HI Open (Lingle, R)

Lean Independent
RI Open (Carcieri, R)

Republican Favored
Culver (D-IA)
AL Open (Riley, R)
NV Open (Gibbons, R)
SC Open (Sanford, R)
TN Open (Bredesen, D)

Democrat Favored
Lynch (D-NH)


Safe Republican
KS Open (Parkinson, D)
OK Open (Henry, D)
SD Open (Rounds, R)
WY Open (Freudenthal, D)
Heineman (R-NE)
Herbert (R-UT)
Otter (R-ID)
Parnell (R-AK)

Safe Democrat
Beebe (D-AR)
NY Open (Paterson, D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IL should be moved to tossup.

[muon2]

IL should be moved to tossup.

I think that most of the pundits are waiting for more polling to show that the race is a statistical dead heat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Simply put it the GOP like these pundits are analysing aren't gonna win all those states in the midwest they probably gonna win Iowa and win MI or PA but winning more than that is simply unrealistic, high probability win only 2. And our senate candidates should help with electing governors in IL, WI, and PA. MI and IO are another story.

[muon2]

Simply put it the GOP like these pundits are analysing aren't gonna win all those states in the midwest they probably gonna win Iowa and win MI or PA but winning more than that is simply unrealistic, high probability win only 2. And our senate candidates should help with electing governors in IL, WI, and PA. MI and IO are another story.

I don't follow how the Sen candidate will help Quinn in Nov. Alexi isn't going to generate an unusual GOTV that would work to the Gov's advantage. Also, Quinn had to publicly attack Alexi last week over Alexi's taxes to be consistent with his criticism of Brady.

[timmer123]

Simply put it the GOP like these pundits are analysing aren't gonna win all those states in the midwest they probably gonna win Iowa and win MI or PA but winning more than that is simply unrealistic, high probability win only 2. And our senate candidates should help with electing governors in IL, WI, and PA. MI and IO are another story.

Wow, your wishful thinking is amusing.

The Republicans are favored to sweep the whole mid west.  IA and PA are almost a lock, MI and WI are clearly favoring Rep and IL is probable.

Dream on man.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once again you misinterpreted my words, I didn't sa ythat they both will both campaign together, but the state Democratic party won't hang them out to dry and will give them plenty of cash to be competetive equally in their respective races.

As far as my wishful think this is the same for all the Democrats in the midwest, the Dems are not gonna win all the races and nor the GoP at the most they will split the Senate and  Governor races. And I assure you that it won't be that landslide.

Brady and Quinn virtually margin of error
Strickland and kasich margin of error
Toomey and Sestak margin of error.