Putin Has Won

[bballrox4717]

No, Russia has already lost. Rather than have former Warsaw Pact countries be neutral, they are all part of the EU and NATO, which has entered former Soviet territory in the Baltics. Russia is angry because NATO is essentially treating it like Cold War era Germany: a dismembered state that should not be allowed to regain its former power. It can't project any national power when its borders are essentially what it was after the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which was completely humiliating to Russia. The only reason why Russia is even remotely threatening to the U.S. is because of its missiles and nuclear power.

Russians completely resent this. It's why Putin is so popular. He stands up to the western consensus on cultural issues and stands up to the west when they go further into Soviet territory by trying to add Ukraine to the EU and NATO.  I don't think people quite understand that Putin is essentially using Hitler's political tactics to gain power without the crazy Nazi ideology. It's why he's so dangerous. Putin is a good enough politician to gain international and domestic favor for his actions, yet is a cold enough rational actor to realize there are lines he can't cross.

I just hope western leaders find a political solution to this before Putin is able to divide the EU and NATO enough that he can start pseudo-invading NATO countries like the Baltics. Because if international leaders cannot coordinate a quick response, they are going to have to choose between war and appeasement. We seriously cannot let it get to that point, because Putin will actually start winning.

[bballrox4717]

I'd be very, very surprised if Russian involvement in the Baltics didn't lead to war. If the west just allowed it to happen, then the whole point of NATO is lost, and the EU is proved to be weak.

Nobody wants to go to war, but they absolutely would if there were Russian tanks rolling into Tallinn.

Your first point is literally exactly what Putin wants: he seeks to politically play EU countries and the US against each other to the point that nobody sees the worth in defending the Baltic countries. If NATO cannot guarantee the safety of every country in it, then it will collapse, which allows Russia to pursue a much more aggressive foreign policy.

No, Russia has already lost. Rather than have former Warsaw Pact countries be neutral, they are all part of the EU and NATO, which has entered former Soviet territory in the Baltics.

right.  that's why Putin referred to the collapse of the USSR as "a great geopolitical catastrophe."  what you and I call "EU" and "NATO", Russia calls it Western aggression.  (remember, Russia has been demolished by Western European invasions 3 times since 1805).  Putin is on a mission to get at least some of that "buffer" territory back.

It's not even about buffer territory at this point. Buffer territories are pointless with modern warfare. Putin, like many non-western leaders, see the US as a tyrannical, unipolar world power. They despise the fact that the US will act in a major power's sphere of influence without any real consequence. They think to themselves, what business does the US have in making Slavic, Middle Eastern, or Asian countries liberal democracies? To Russia (and also the Chinese), it insults their very sovereignty.

The real goal of Russia (and once again, China, even if they're off topic on this subject), is undo the current global order so that they don't have to suffer the embarrassment of foreign interference with their policies. It's a revanchist movement at heart, where the actual goals mean nothing towards the actual strength of the state.