I'm going to take things in a whole new direction. I'm predicting some moderate changes in both parties in the next four years, and the departure of the most divisive President evar. The 2008 Swing States:
2004/2008 Swing states:
Maine
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Oregon
Washington
the only ones I agree with there are NH and NM. Maine was targeted this year and Kerry still took it by 8 points. We saw how much traction the Republicans got in Washington and Oregon.
The game I'm playing here is a Populist Democrat vs. a small government, big business Republican.
I have no clue what you're thinking here.
NJ + CT: The wealthy and business-friendly go for the GOP message of small government and low taxes for corporations.
CA: A return to Republican roots.
TN, AR, TX: Fight for the little guy and "true family values" strikes a chord.
SD: Remember this is essentially a more socially conservative Minnesota.
much as I hate to say it, Minnesota will not turn solid Democrat. Definate lean to Dem hopefully though. Same with Wisconsin and Michigan. I don't see why Iowa'd turn solid Dem, it'd be a swing state yet again. And how are any of these less in play than Washington, Oregon and Maine?
The Democrat candidate's commitment to "strong moral values" plays well in the Midwest. The Republican candidate's libertarian values play well in Washington, Oregon, and Maine.
To make the game even more interesting: The GOP nominates the first openly gay presidential candidate. A Log Cabinite.
Florida is still trending Dem, just more slowly. You might be right about Missouri. Colorado shifted TOWARD Kerry and is trending Dem. Nevada turned out to be basically a bellwether. I don't see how any of these would turn solid Republican.
Florida: Republicans start taking a majority of the Latino vote, and Jewish voters flock to the Elephant.
Colorado + Nevada: It's all about getting government out of their lives.
