Israel general discussion

[Hnv1]

edit to that: Wurtzman did want to be sworn in and the next in line was the party CEO so Bennet decided to resume being an MK

[Hnv1]

A. midterm polls in Israel are rubbish B. Israeli polling companies are rubbish
I would take this poll with a kilogram of salt as the numbers don't really add up rationally. With regards to the comparison with Germany neither the 09 and 13 coalitions could be considered as 'Grand Coalition' by local standards but rather ordinary coalition, a Grand Coalition suggests some form of power share ala 1984\1988. Also in Germany red-green-dark red coalition is possible in Israel a Labour lead coalition with the JAL is far fetched

[Hnv1]

Could JL provide external support to a Labour coalition, or is even that off the table?

Likely but hardly from the start of a term and it really depends on 'peace process progress'. Anyway Herzog is unlikely to form a coalition and Labour don't seem to be on the road to nowhere, if Lapid forms the next government (please no) he'll never be dependent on the JAL and they're unlikely to support him.

It really seems that no party leader (bar for maybe UTJ) actually likes Bibi or would like to see him stay in politics let alone most of Likud ministers. Liberman hates him, Kachlon has a belly full of resent towards him, Lapid he's waiting for him around the corner, Deri'i would much rather not work with him, and Bennet...that goes on personal levels now.

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Why do you hate Lapid? I thought he was just an inoffensive dullard?

He's very much a dullard and a horrible one at it. The web is filled with his pathetic intellectual bloopers, he's shallow to the point it's absurd and the problem is he has no self awareness so he's certain he's the brightest kid in class. He's smooth but that's because he's a dumbed version of Bibi, a demagogue with nothing bright to say. Now if there something I dislike is shallowness in politics and intellectual deficit (hence my disliking of American politics and politicians) so I find him especially off-putting.

And on the political level, he's far from inoffensive and his remarks regarding Arabs, leftists, right wingers, religious people and such shows it. His 'centerism' is actually militant right-wing in its core and as I said I think he's a dumbed version of Bibi. Now I dislike Bibi but I'de rather him than his lackwit mini-me as a PM. In addition, he's completely a puppet, everything he writes and says now is formulated by imaging experts and powerful people in Yediot group who want their puppet in office.

David are you a civilian? I didn't know you did Aliya

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It grieves me personally to say that Yossi Sarid (75) former chairman of Meretz, Minister of Education, MK for 32 years (Maarach, Ratz, Meretz), and a prolific author and journalist has passed away tonight. He's a leading figure in my formative years of understanding politics and his run in 99 made me a follower. Later on, I met him on several occasions and found truly brilliant person. Though nowadays I align politically more with his rival Aloni's legacy I nevertheless regard him as one of the finest people we had in Israeli politics.
RIP

[Hnv1]

So Interior Minister (and Chief of the negotiation with Palestinian [which?]) Sylvan Shalom resigns due to allegations of sexual harassment. once a rising star in the Likud and almost a PM candidate, he was a senior minister until 2006 and then his career faded away. I've been a political troll from the late 90's at least and I cannot recall a single thing good or bad I can credit him with, he was always mellow at best with good friends in the media.

Next in line is Amir Ohana who is going to be the first ever gay Likud MK! (in a party that does not support gay rights), from the interview with him I read he appears social liberal but very Hawkish. After him is the third temple nutter, so I assume Bibi will try very hard to keep this lineup all the way to the next elections.
Number of LGBT MKs now: 2 - Ohana and Shmoli.

Fun fact: Bibi is now the PM, Foreign minister, Economy minister, Communications Minister, Regional Cooperation Minister, and the Interior Minister (for now at least) . L'Etat, c'est moi

[Hnv1]

Remind me, who is Shmoli?

Also, who are the two closeted ones?

Itzik Shmoli (Labour) - obnoxious politico from the Israeli National Student Union which is a nurturing home for bland politicos. On Labour's right, rode through the 2011 protests to the Knesset.

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Can some Israeli poster can say more or less or maybe send me some links about which parties Israeli Christians (Arabs, not Arabs) usually vote on? They are small minority but maybe there are some data about them? I found information about such party https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sons_of_the_New_Testament but they don't seem to be popular. I will be very grateful for the help.

Most Hadash as it was the party of the Arab intelligentsia which was mostly Christian (best Arabic schools are private church schools) so they are pretty dominant across the Christian strongholds. Lots of the younger ones vote Balad though. Some vote Meretz (at least a popular pick in Haifa) and Labour. And there is a group of Maronites who vote Likud.
Their numbers are dwindling as it is with many immigrated along the years and the demographic balance changing to a large Muslim majority.

Non Arabic Christians living here who are also citizens (most are missionary and such) are scarce. Can't say there's enough of them to really talk about allegiance nor to talk of any group mentality. There's the Messianic Jews ("Jews who believe in Jesus") don't think they have a specific affiliation.  

You should note that most Arab Christians are far from devout and are mostly secular, they have very different denominations but I don't think any of those are "radical" (as 'Christian right') and of the Arabic society they are probably the most Liberal (surprisingly I'd rate the Druze last)

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Glad to see Amir Ohana get a chance to be in the Knesset. Likud continues to outclass the American Right with it's tolerance of LGBT.

Very depressed to see Shalom go. I hope he is innocent because of his long service in politics, but his wife interfering with an investigation is not a good sign.

Long service? He's seriously one of the dullest politicians we had, also one who always seemed firmly committed to advancing his reputation with no "agenda\ideology" to advance. I was trying to think of a single memorable decent thing he did and I cannot think of anything. Heck I couldn't even determine his stance on anything!

I'm happy he's gone, he was from the post Yom Kippor generation who brought us nothing but corruption and self preservation (Olmmert, Ramon, and others as well).

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A fringe charecter recently shot by a Palestinian for his third temple activities. would fit better in right of JH, can't see Bibi letting him (he's also a political ally of Feiglin)

[Hnv1]

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Jerusalem-mayor-Nir-Barkat-joins-the-Likud-calls-on-supporters-to-do-the-same-438030

Nir Barkat is officially a Likud member. Not a surprise to anyone, but great news nonetheless for people like me. Whenever the next election is, and if Bibi retires, I'll be starting a #DraftBarkat4PMMovement

Word is Likud primaries will be in 2 months so Barkat won't compete.
Hazan isn't going to resign unless he's really under criminal investigation...his parent have too much at stake to let their stock fall...

[Hnv1]

So Likud leadership elections will most likely be held in February and Gideon Saar a pretender to the crown announced he is not going to participate in Bibi's circus so to say. With him out I really don't see any strong challenger from inside.

[Hnv1]

Interesting things here:
JH merger with Tkuma will probably not last, Bennet and Ariel\Smoterich are not "clicking" at the moment at all
The Khanist were never a part of Gush Emunim or the national religious movement and here most of those arrested are sons of leading Rabbis and leaders of that sector, just to show are right wing the young settlers generation is.
Bennet, JH, and associated NGOs have been waging a facebook battle (in Israel facebook is where internet politics happen not twitter) against parts of their own electorate, the Jewish imagination had spread ridiculous rumors about the Shin Bet techniques, Bennet checked and found it's a pile of BS

[Hnv1]

I'll likely support Barkat, if he runs, which won't be while Bibi is still leader, but my preferred and unrealistic choices would be Regev or Hotovely.

Say what now? this the first I ever heard anyone saying he'd like to see her in charge, not even by her erhmm "electorate" ...are you having a laugh?

[Hnv1]

Likud leadership primaries to be held in late Feb. Bibi is going to win and secure his leadership until 2023 (yes I know shocking).
MK Haim Katz was elected Party Convention Chairman, but Bibi pretty much drained that post out of power.
no word yet regarding Labour leadership primaries

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A Jewish state should treat Jews in a Jewish way. That might include harsh sentencing after a fair process, but it does not include stripping away someone's rights and torturing them in order to make them confess.

What's a "Jewish" way? death penalty for fornicating with a married women, gay sex, or not respecting the sabbath as the Halcha requires?
 
A modern state should treat its citizens in a humane way.

I don't think they were tortured, they had a rough investigation which I opposed (as they were not an imminent threat) as I oppose most of those rough methods when they are conducted toward Palestinians. "Torture" is a strong word, you wanna see torture you should check American methods.

As to taking their attorneys word for it...I would rather believe The Sun.

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I never practiced human rights law here (private law is my domain), but I know the constitutional and legal framework and those claims are absurd.
A. The methods they claimed used aren't even used on Hamas men who are a "ticking bomb" hence I would doubt their use here (on Jews).
B. They do not appear to be a part of SB known repertoire which is suspicious.
C. Unlikely SB interrogators would use them considering the legal status of "torture investigations since SCoJ case 5100\94
D. I can't be considered a supporter of friend of Bennet or Religious Zionism, but he looked into it and found most of those claims to be bogus

[Hnv1]

First post-election poll I'm seeing today at Yediot. Take with a kg of salt and also calculate a integral bias toward Lapid and against Bibi

Likud - 25
ZU - 18
YA - 18
JAL - 13
JH - 12
YB - 8
UTJ - 7
Kulanu - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 6

With Gideon Saar joining Kulanu:
Likud - 21
ZU - 18
YA - 18
JAL - 13
Kulanu - 12
JH - 11
YB - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 6

[Hnv1]

Kachlon his going to resign as MK so Akram Hasson could be made an MK. Akram Hasson is the head of Kadima btw and also ran in the JH primaries...so yeah Druze politicians at it again

Labour leadership run off will be at August. Shelly most likely competing, Herzog receiving quite a lot of fire in recent days for his break to the the right ('2 states not viable) with MK bar caught on tape mocking him

[Hnv1]

two polls from today (yeah get your salt ready)
Likud - 30
ZU - 18
Lapid - 18
JAL - 13
Liberman - 9
JH - 9
Shas -8
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
Kulano - 4
_______________________________________________________

Likud - 23
Lapid - 20
ZU - 16
JH - 13
JAL - 12
Kulano - 9
Liberman - 8
Meretz -7
UTJ - 6
Shas - 6

[Hnv1]

OK, this may be a stupid question, but why couldn't there be a single state of Israel and Palestine, with both peoples having equal rights... and getting along?

why can't there be a Utopian one state with a  functioning liberal democracy? well:
A. in any scenario leading up to such state rivers of bloodshed will be poured
B. neither side is yet willing to respect the other's self-determination to the required extent that a parliament of such state could function (or most "average Joes" in each side cannot cope with the notion of a single state where his side does not have the upper hand
C. I'm developing B, Israel hardly has a solid liberal section that can maintain liberal-democratic values in Israel itself (and as it seems their numbers are shrinking by the day), Palestinian society definitely doesn't have the required secular-liberal mass. The one state with liberal values will be fighting an uphill battle from its inception

[Hnv1]

K maybe this board need a different Israel-Palestine thread where everybody can post and be right all the time with their flawless geopolitical analysis and in this thread we could discuss Israeli politics?

[Hnv1]

It was recently revealed that Bernie Sanders volunteered at Kibbutz Sha'ar Ha'amakim in his youth, so I thought I would check their voting in the last election:
ZU: 55.3%
Meretz: 34.2%
Yesh Atid: 6.7%
Kulanu: 1.4%
Green Leaf: 0.9%
Likud: 0.7%

Yeah, not very surprising.

It was actually once a "capital" kibbutz for Hashomer Hatzair and Mapam and a strong Meretz voting hub. But like many Kibutzim of Mapam it drifted strongly toward Labour. There are still some very left wing Mapam Kibutzim out there but the general trend had been toward Labour. During the 60's though...it was hard to the left and they still held strong Marxist-Leninist views and USSR links.

Also, since this was revealed it caused quite a stir. The Sanders campaign did some tremendous efforts to conceal the identity of the Kibutz he was in (and his brother even flat out lied). Many conspiracy theories sprung as Sanders also divorced his first wife after they left...some suggested checking to see who was born some 9 months later

[Hnv1]

A Poll of Israelis about the US presidential election:
Clinton: 41%
Trump: 14%
Cruz: 7%
Sanders: 5%
Rubio: 4%
No Opinion: 29%

obviously, it's mostly about name recognition at this point.

This. The average Israeli is very ignorant of American politics and he gets his info from Yediot or Israel Hayom. Yediot with their Haim Saban ties are very pro Clinton, and Israel Hayom like Sheldon Adelson is undecided yet. Trump is a populist and anti-muslim like some Israelis like, Clinton is very familiar and Bill was very popular here.
Sanders on the other hand gets mentioned only in Haaretz (though not to fondly) and is supported by facebook left wing dorks.

But my bet is Bibi would like either Rubio or Clinton to win with the former of course the first preference.

[Hnv1]

But my bet is Bibi would like either Rubio or Clinton to win with the former of course the first preference.

Bibi would obviously prefer Cruz over Clinton as well.

I'm not sure about it. Clinton is not going to cause him any problems regarding the Palestinian issue and will provide a stronger shield than what a Cruz regime could muster around the world. Clinton could block off European initiatives Cruz couldn't.

The interesting question is who would he least prefer Trump or Sanders.

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inter election polls in Israel are only good to spot trends and the only clear ones here is Herzog's fall and Liberman's relative revival. Like always before a GE all sorts of gimmicks occur and we get a different electoral map.

Doubt Zehut will poll more than 2-3