The partisan make - up of this poll sample is D+9.
Something I noticed is that the number of independents is high and the amount of democrats and republicans is lower than in other polls. Just who are these independents? Something to keep in mind.
The partisan ID question is always an interesting one.
If you just ask the question straight out, a lot of independents who actually lean one way or the other will say their are independent, but if you push then a good chunk will express a party preference.
A baseline I think is useful this year is to use the 2008 and 2004 exit polls.
In 2004 the partisan ID of folks who actually voted was almost exactly even between Republicans and Dems - depending on which data set you use it was either even or GOP +1.
In 2008 it was Dems +7.
I think GOP +1 to Dems +7 pretty much defines the other limits of where polling should be in 2012.
I doubt ANYBODY sane will suggest Obama is in better shape now than in 2008, and I doubt we will see a GOP +1 either....
