The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[rob in cal]

Is a Sasse victory in Nebraska a victory for Gang of Eight style immigration reform?  He didn't sign the FAIR pledge which called for no form of amnesty and no increase in legal immigration, and Osborn did, but has he in fact said he would be in favor of a Schumer Graham Durbin Mccain type immigration reform?

[RogueBeaver]

His past history says yes but my guess is he keeps his head down there.

[RogueBeaver]

Ugh, Sasse. I'm hopeful he's more of a Jeff Flake or Pat Toomey and not another Mike Lee.

Sasse was no different than any established Republican, he just fit in with the right groups for some reason.

Indeed, per Jeff Zeleny Sasse has told friends he'll try to be another Lee.

[Miles]

Almost everything is in for WV-03. Rahall won with 66% overall, but Ojeda got 61% in Logan County.

[RogueBeaver]

Team Sasse memo.

[ElectionsGuy]

Logan County is probably the most yellow-dog dem/coal country county you can get.

Rahall's going to have a hard time in the general.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, he needs to make sure those voters come home to him in the general.

[Donerail]

Logan County is probably the most yellow-dog dem/coal country county you can get.

I'd assume the reason for how Logan voted has more to do with the fact that it's an absolutely tiny place and is Ojeda's hometown (as well as his wife's, and I'm pretty sure it's where he lives and raises his children now). I wouldn't doubt that you'd see Lincoln County as the sole outlier if he'd grown up one county over.

[Miles]

Logan County is probably the most yellow-dog dem/coal country county you can get.

I'd assume the reason for how Logan voted has more to do with the fact that it's an absolutely tiny place and is Ojeda's hometown (as well as his wife's, and I'm pretty sure it's where he lives and raises his children now). I wouldn't doubt that you'd see Lincoln County as the sole outlier if he'd grown up one county over.

Its also where Tomblin was (is) from; they call Logan County 'Tomblingrad' at RRH. He got 92% (!) there in 2011 and 79% in 2012.

[ElectionsGuy]

Logan County is probably the most yellow-dog dem/coal country county you can get.

I'd assume the reason for how Logan voted has more to do with the fact that it's an absolutely tiny place and is Ojeda's hometown (as well as his wife's, and I'm pretty sure it's where he lives and raises his children now). I wouldn't doubt that you'd see Lincoln County as the sole outlier if he'd grown up one county over.

Well, even with that, it fits into the Mingo/McDowell/Wyoming/Boone county group as particularly supporting statewide democrats (and Tomblin is also from there, oddly, as Miles said. Explains why he got >90% in 2011).

[ElectionsGuy]

Lee Terry projected winner against his challenger. Steady 54%

[RogueBeaver]

Osborn ran out of money and neither he nor Dinsdale conducted polling.

[Kevinstat]

It's interesting that Arkansas (primary this coming Tuesday, May 27), this year at least, has its (primary (the only runoff Arkansas has)) runoff (where necessary, and there are three Republicans running for the open AR-02 seat this year) only three weeks later, Tuesday, June 10.  South Carolina has only a two weeks between it's primary on June 10 and it's (primary) runoff on Tuesday, June 24, and as both dates are in June I imagine that 14-day gap is the same regardless of which of how the days of the week and dates of the year add up.

Interestingly, and I looked into this because Maine's primary is on the 2nd Tuesday in June, for any n, the nth Tuesday in June will always fall the same number of weeks before the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November (Election Day).  For the 2nd Tuesday it's 21 weeks (147 days).  The same would apply (as far as days or weeks and days goes) for a primary or primary runoff the first any other day or the week after the nth Tuesday in June (or the nth other day or the week after the first Tuesday in June).  To have that property, a day based off a day in another month would have to be based off a Friday in January, a Monday (like Election Day) in February or March, a Thursday in April, a Saturday in May (would work well for Louisiana, except for how early it is for a state where it's jungle primary can be the only election for a given office), a Thursday in July, a Sunday in August, a Wednesday in September, a Friday in October, a Monday in November (for some general election runoff from here on out), a Wednesday in December (Louisiana's runoff for congressional elections is on the first Saturday after the first Wednesday in December, always five weeks after Election Day when it's congressional jungle primaries are held), or a Saturday in the following January (Georgia's general election runoff is by law I guess 9 weeks after Election Day, but that will always be the first Tuesday after the first Saturday in January).

Georgia has that same 9-week gap between it's primary and primary runoff.  It's primary is always 24 weeks before Election Day (the first/third Tuesday after the third/first Saturday in May, or simply the last Tuesday in May, it turns out (that's being based off the first Tuesday in June)), and it's general election is the 15 weeks before Election Day (the first/third Tuesday after the third/first Thursday in July).  Texas has a 12-week gap, this year at least, although I'm not sure if that's a constant or not.  North Carolina (this year at least) and South Dakota each have a 10-week gap, although the 35% a candidate needs to get to avoid a runoff in South Dakota is even lower than North Carolina's 40%.  The wording here suggests that South Dakota's runoff provisions only extend to primaries for Governor and both houses of Congress, and South Dakota doesn't seem to have the political culture (or the multiple congressional districts) that would lead to a primary winner's vote percentage for one of these races to fall below the 35% threshold often.  Oklahoma has the same 9-week gap as Georgia (this year at least), although without Georgia's provision for a general election runoff.  Alabama has a six-week gap (this year at least), while Mississippi has the same the same three-week gap as Arkansas, and as Mississippi has both its primary and (primary) runoff elections in June I imagine there's the same gap election year to election year.

[Kevinstat]

A link to the current page of the equivalent thread on the Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections board: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=188582.150

[Tender Branson]

May 20 primary results:

AR

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/AR_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

GA

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/GA_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

ID:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/ID_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

KY:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/KY_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

OR:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/OR_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

PA:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2014/by_state/PA_Page_0520.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[nclib]

The NC map looks more regional than ideological. Is there a good place to find all the primary maps?

[Tender Branson]

My predictions:

GA: 33% Perdue, 21% Kingston, 20% Handel, 13% Gingrey, 12% Broun, 1% Others

KY: 62% McConnell, 36% Bevin, 2% Others

[Miles]

The NC map looks more regional than ideological. Is there a good place to find all the primary maps?

The new state website is awful, but the News & Observer has a good page for maps.

I'll have the Senate maps entered into the Election Info section here; I'm just waiting to make sure all the county canvasses are done.

[Maxwell]

If Bevin can hold McConnell under 60, I think it's a victory for him. As of now, I don't think that's the case:

Kentucky - 62 McConnell, 37 Bevin, 1 Others
Georgia - 30 Perdue, 22 Handel, 19 Kingston, 12 Broun, 10 Gingrey, 5 Grayson, 2 Gardner

[nolesfan2011]

Kentucky-still thinking Bevin gets 40%+ Georgia-% are hard to predict but Perdue and Kingston 1 and 2 and they make the runoff. Handel a semi distant third, Broun could finish third but I have him in fourth, then Gingrey, Grayson and Gardner.

[ShadowRocket]

I think McConnell crosses 60% in KY.

In GA, Perdue comes out on top, followed by Handel in second place. Then Kingston, Broun, and Gingrey in that order.

 

[Del Tachi]

KY:  McConnell wins 63/35 over Bevin.

GA:  Perdue and Kingston head to the runoff. 

[bballrox4717]

KY: McConnell takes it 55-41.

GA: Handel surprises everybody and narrowly beats Perdue as they head to the run-off.
26 Handel, 25 Perdue, 19 Kingston, 15 Broun, 12 Gingrey

PA: Wolf takes it with over 50 percent of the vote.

[tmthforu94]

My guess is that McConnell gets roughly 65% of the vote in Kentucky. In Georgia, David Perdue beats Karen Handel by 4-5%, followed by Kingston who is a point or two behind Handel.

[ElectionsGuy]

Polls closed 14 minutes ago in eastern Kentucky, results should start trickling in, slowly.