South Africa 2014

[ag]

In the end, ANC dominance not that different from that of a lot of other national liberation movements. We are 20 years away from the end of the White rule, which we may take as a rough equivalent of "independence". This would be 1967 in, say, India or Israel (two examples of consistent electoral democracies in newly independent states).

India 1951
INC 364 seats
CPI 16
SP 12
Every other party - less than 10 seats
Independents 37
Total 489

India 1957
INC 371 seats
CPI 27
PSP 19
...
Independents 42
Total 490

India 1962
INC 361
CPI 29
SP 18
BJS 14
PSP 12
RPI 10
...
Independents 20
Total 494

India 1967
INC 283
SP 44
BJS 35
DMK 25
CPI 23
SSP 23
CPI(M) 19
PSP 13
....
Independents 35
Total 520

20 years from independence was the first time INC started losing seats, but it was still strongly dominant.

[ag]

Israel is slightly different, because of the PR and the lack of a single liberation movement. Still, Mapai (pre-Labor) was, arguably, the independence party and Mapam (further on the left - in a way, pre-Meretz) could be viewed as coming from the same tradition. 120 seats with PR - these days 35 seats, I believe, counts as the strong success. Mapai did not drop below 40 seats in the first 20 years.

Israel 1949
Mapai (pre-Labor) 46 seats
Mapam (pre-Meretz) 19 seats
United Religious Front 16 seats
Herut (one of the pre-Likuds) 14 seats
everybody else under 10 seats each
Total 120

Israel 1951
Mapai 45
General Zionists (another pre-Likud) 20 seats
Mapam  15 seats
everybody else under 10 seats each
Total 120

Israel 1955
Mapai 40
Herut 15
General Zionists 13
National Religious Front 11
Ahdut HaAvoda (a Mapam splinter, eventually to merge with Mapai to become Labor) 10
everybody else under 10 seats each
Total 120

Israel 1959
Mapai 47
Herut 17
National Religious Party (NRP) 12
everybody else under 10 each
Total 120

Israel 1961
Mapai 42
Herut 17
Liberal Party (former General Zionists, pre-Likud) 17
NRP 12
everybody else under 10 each
total 120

Israel 1965
Alignment (Mapai merged with Ahdut HaAvoda, pre-Labor) 45
Gahal (Herut merged with Libreals, pre-Likud) 26
NRP 11
Rafi (Mapai splinter, later to remerge into Labor) 10

Israel 1969
Alignment 56
Gahal 26
NRP 12

Again, every single election during this period has the same dominant party (even if it does not get the same kind of a majority as ANC).

[ag]

Most important question is if Whites will support her or go to another alternative. Freedom Front can be weakened, as they accepted to support ANC.
And what if ANC loses majority, could South Africa see a repeat of Ireland 1948, with another parties, DA, COPE and even Malema's party joining to government?

Everything indicates that we will have to wait for a couple more election cycles for ANC to lose the majority, and even afterwards they should be able to continue stitching a ruling coalition for a bit while more. Eventually, though, they will lose it. Who will be the players in a first non-ANC government is still too early to tell.

[ag]

Unless I am miscalculating, it is just over 30 minutes before the polls close. So exciting! Will ANC get 68% or just 62% of the vote? Will DA crack 25% or fail to crack 20%?

[ag]

Results should, eventually, appear, for instance, here

http://www.news24.com/elections/news

But, so far, there seem to be none. They expect complete results over 2 days.

[ag]

So are white/coloured areas in general counted faster, or is NA preforming as well as it appears at the moment? (I imagine it's the former)

DA - not NA.

The fastest counting province is Western Cape, and DA rules there.

[ag]

29.82% reporting

ANC 58.46%
DA 27.95%
EFF 4.18%
IFP 2.05%
NFP 1.47%
VF+ 1.18%
UDM 0.99%
COPE 0.84%
ACDP 0.64%
AIC 0.56%
AGANG 0.21%
AL J 0.20%

Current forecast is that ANC lands around 63% and DA around 22%. Might not sound impressive, but could wind up being the worst performance by ANC and the best by an opposition party since the start of democracy.

[ag]

73.59% reporting

ANC 62.52%
DA 22.46%
EFF 5.30%
IFP 2.50%
NFP 1.68%
UDM 1.12%
VF+ 0.92%
COPE 0.73%
AIC 0.56%
ACDP 0.55%
AGANG 0.24%
PAC 0.20%

[ag]

Aren't these results sort of disappointing for both the DA and EFF though? I mean, the ANC will end up down, but not appreciably. The DA doesn't seem to have made substantial inroads among black voters. The 6% that EFF looks like it's going to end up with is less even than COPE got in the last election. I'd imagine that the ANC benefited from the collapse of COPE and the awfulness of IFP, but still, another 60+% victory after 20 years in power is nothing to get upset about.

Incidentally, I wonder if at this point the ANC would actually hand over the reigns of government in the event that a coalition was able to (or looked like it would be able to) force them out of power. I somewhat doubt it.

South Africa is following the Indian pattern pretty well.  Back in 1967 INC was still pretty unbeatable. Eventually, it will sufficiently splinter to make the politics more lively. Whether they agree to go at that point is an interesting question - we will have to wait and see.

[ag]

91.84% reporting

ANC 62.72%
DA 21.93%
EFF 5.73%
IFP 2.55%
NFP 1.69%
UDM 1.07%
VF+ 0.89%
COPE 0.69%
ACDP 0.55%
AIC 0.55%
AGANG 0.25%
PAC 0.20%

[ag]

I tried to make the seat calculation - from the data a few minutes back, so it might be a tad old. It seems, we are getting (in brackets, change from 2009)

ANC 250 (-14)
DA 88 (+17 as compared to DA+ID)
EFF 24 (+24)
IFP 10 (-8)
NFP  7 (+7)
UDM 4 (nil)
VF+ 4 (nil)
COPE 3 (-27)
ACDP 3 (nil)
AIC 3 (+3)
AGANG 2 (+2)
PAC 1 (nil)
APC 1  (nil)
MF 0 (-1)
UCDP 0 (-2)
AZAPO 0 (-1)

[ag]

Western Cape Legislature seems to be

DA 26 (+2, as compared to DA+ID)
ANC 14 (nil)
EFF 1 (+1)
ACDP 1 (nil)

COPE looses its three seats.

[ag]

So, there seems to be a slight peculiarity in the allocation method. They use the largest remainder, but only for the first 5 remainders. After that, they switch to the largest average per seat. IFP just dropped to below 10 quotas - did not change their seat allocation (they, obviously, have by far the largest remainder), but it did have the effect of bumping APC out (they were the fifth remainder, and are now the sixth) - in favor of the extra seat for UDM (the fifth largest average). And then when DA got the 88th quota UMP lost its extra seat back to APC. Etc. Funny.

[ag]

Update with 99.07% of precincts reporting.

ANC 62.21% votes 249 seats (-15)
DA 22.16% votes 89 seats (+18 as compared to DA+ID)
EFF 6.29% votes 25 seats (+25)
IFP 2.42% votes 10 seats (-8)
NFP 1.58% votes 7 seats (+7)
UDM 1.01% votes 4 seats (nil)
VF+ 0.91% votes 4 seats (nil)
COPE 0.67% votes 3 seats (-27)
ACDP 0.58% votes 3 seats (nil)
AIC 0.53% votes 3 seats (+3)
AGANG 0.28% votes 2 seats (+2)
PAC 0.21% votes 1 seat (nil)
APC 0.17% votes 0 seats (-1)
AL J 0.14% votes, 0 seats (nil)
MF 0.12% votes 0 seats (-1)
UCDP 0.12% votes 0 seats (-2)
AZAPO 0.11% votes 0 seats (-1)

[ag]

With what but what seems to be a couple of dozen precincts reporting, we seem to have

ANC 62.23% votes 249 seats (-15)
DA 22.16% votes 89 seats (+18 as compared to DA+ID)
EFF 6.34% votes 25 seats (+25)
IFP 2.41% votes 10 seats (-8)
NFP 1.57% votes 6 seats (+6)
UDM 1.00% votes 4 seats (nil)
VF+ 0.90% votes 4 seats (nil)
COPE 0.67% votes 3 seats (-27)
ACDP 0.56% votes 3 seats (nil)
AIC 0.53% votes 3 seats (+3)
AGANG 0.28% votes 2 seats (+2)
PAC 0.21% votes 1 seat (nil)
APC 0.17% votes 1 seat (nil)
AL J 0.14% votes, 0 seats (nil)
MF 0.12% votes 0 seats (-1)
UCDP 0.12% votes 0 seats (-2)
AZAPO 0.11% votes 0 seats (-1)

DA has set a SA record for the vote for a single opposition party, both counted as the total number of votes (over 4 mln.) a vote share (over 22%), and the number of seats (89). ANC gets its worst vote share and the number of seats (just a tad under its 1994 result). Nothing pathbreaking - but a good position to be building from by DA.

[ag]

SA currently has 8, so called, metropolitan municipalities. Their current names notwithstanding, they are better known as (in order of decreasing population) Johannesburg, Cape Town, Durban, East Rand (East of Johannesburg), Pretoria, Port Elizabeth, East London and Bloemfontein (in every case with suburbs). Two of these (East London and Bloemfontein) are relatively smallish (under 1 mln. residents) and have only existed in their current boundaries since 2011, so the proper comparison would require time. In addition, just eye-balling, very little happened there between 2009 and 2014 - same ANC dominance and splintered opposition. It is more interesting in the other (bigger) six, so I decided to take a look.

Here is what happened in the 6 biggest South African metros - national vote - this time (for comparison, change from 2009, with DA/ID vote for that year taken together).

Johannesburg, Gauteng
ANC 53.58% (-9.57%)
DA 29.92% (+8.15%)
EFF 10.00% (+10.00%)
IFP 1.33% (-1.00%)
UDM 0.64% (+0.21%)
ACDP 0.62% (-0.23%)
AGANG 0.61% (+0.61%)
NFP 0.61% (+0.61%)
COPE 0.55% (-8.94%)
VF+ 0.45% (-0.02%)
AIC 0.42% (+0.42%)

Tshwane/Pretoria (Gauteng)
ANC 51.09% (-10.02%)
DA 31.19% (+5.93%)
EFF 11.44% (+11.44%)
VF+ 2.51% (-0.39%)
ACDP 0.83%  (-0.28%)
AGANG 0.59% (+0.59%)
COPE 0.44% (-7.31%)
AIC 0.42% (+0.42%)
UDM 0.38% (+0.18%)

Ekurhuleni/East Rand (Gauteng)
ANC 56.41% (-11.11%)
DA 26.88% (+6.07%)
EFF 10.65% (+10.65%)
VF+ 1.02% (+0.03%)
IFP 0.99% (-0.87%)
NFP 0.83% (+0.83%)
ACDP 0.67% (-0.21%)
UDM 0.49% (nil)
COPE 0.44%(-5.78%)
AIC 0.41% (+0.41%)
AGANG 0.30% (+0.30%)

At least in urban Gauteng it does seem like COPE vote has shifted to DA (though, of course, one would have to check precinct by precinct to make sure). Also, the urban numbers start looking competitive. Hey, GOP could only dream of these in NYC and DC 

[ag]

Cape Town, Western Cape
DA 59.31% (+5.63%)
ANC 32.41% (-0.25%)
EFF 2.72% (+2.72%)
ACDP 1.26% (-0.48%)
AL J 0.76% (+0.07%)
UDM 0.71% (-0.13%)
VF+ 0.65% (+0.1%)
AGANG 0.56% (+0.56%)
COPE 0.46% (-8.23%)

Of course, Western Cape is the opposite of the rest of the country. In addition, EFF did not take off here - and so ANC vote was stable (but it is already low). The bulk of the COPE vote went DA here as well. Again, that gain of 5.6% is in addition to the incorporation of the 2.8% ID had in Cape Town back in 2009. Last time DA alone barely got 50% - now it is almost at 60%.

[ag]

eThekwini/Durban, KwaZulu/Natal

ANC 65.39% (-2.13%)
DA 22.95% (+4.58%)
IFP 3.17% (-3.64%)
EFF 2.60% (+2.60%)
NFP 2.32% (+2.32%)
MF 1.11% (-1.39%)
ACDP 0.58% (-0.24%)
AIC 0.49% (+0.49%)
UDM 0.23% (-0.02%)
COPE 0.20% (-2.37%)

Even accounting for the split between IFP and NFP, there is a definite Zulu party erosion in Durban - but, in any case, these are not very urban. ANC still dominant (EFF has not done well)  - but opposition is clearly consolidating, with, as elsewhere, the (smallish) COPE vote going to DA (note also the collapse of the Minority Front, of which DA is the likely beneficiary).

[ag]

Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth (Eastern Cape)
ANC 49.17% (-0.97%)
DA 40.16% (+10.56%)
EFF 4.30% (+4.30%)
COPE 1.79% (-15.23%)
UDM 1.30% (+0.66%)
VF+ 0.73% (+0.26%)
ACDP 0.57% (-0.11%)
AIC 0.55% (+0.55%)

Port Elizabeth has been and remains a weak link for ANC. The consolidation of opposition vote with DA is the bad news for them here - yes, the next municipals will, once again, be interesting.

[ag]

Provincial vote (top 5 parties in 2014, DA/ID together for 2009)

Limpopo
ANC 78.60% (-6.28%)
EFF 10.74% (+10.74%)
DA 6.48%  (+2.91%)
COPE 0.86% (-6.67%)
VF+ 0.69% (+0.08%)

Mpumalanga
ANC 78.22% (-7.33%)
DA 10.40% (+2.79%)
EFF 6.25% (+6.25%)
BRA 1.15% (+1.15%)
VF+ 0.82% (-0.07%)

Northwest
ANC 67.39% (-5.50%)
EFF 13.20% (+13.20%)
DA 12.59% (+3.88%)
VF+ 1.72% (-0.09%)
UCDP 1.18% (-4.09%)

Whatever you say, but DA has made inroads where it was almost absent before - and these have to be the blacks (note, VF+ is very stable). Too little, for the moment, but US Republicans would, actually, be happy with such a swing in their favor, wouldn't they?

[ag]

Gauteng
ANC 53.64% (-10.40%)
DA 30.74% (+8.27%)
EFF 10.30% (+10.30%)
VF+ 1.19% (-0.44%)
IFP 0.78% (-0.71%)

This is getting to be interesting. It is no longer inconceivable that Gauteng will be competitive in the future. And, of course, the DA pick-up of the COPE vote is remarkable.

KwaZulu/Natal
ANC 64.52% (+1.57%)
DA 12.76% (+3.41%)
IFP 10.86% (-11.54%)
NFP 7.31% (+7.31%)
EFF 1.85% (+1.85%)

There is more to DA becoming the official opposition here than merely IFP split. ANC, actually gains - well, Zuma is, at least, quite popular at home. EFF barely makes it ahead the (sharply reduced) Minority Front.

[ag]

Free State
ANC 69.85% (-1.25%)
DA 16.23% (+4.48%)
EFF 8.15% (EFF +8.15%)
VF+ 2.10% (+0.09%)
COPE 1.63% (-9.98%)

Eastern Cape
ANC 70.09% (+1.27%)
DA 16.20% (+4.75%)
UDM 6.16% (+2.03%)
EFF 3.48% (+3.48%)
COPE 1.20% (-12.47%)

Other than COPE collapse, little of interest, it seems, happening here. Still, DA emergence as the undisputed opposition and UDM rebound in its backyard are both notable.

[ag]

Northern Cape
ANC 64.40% (+3.65%)
DA 23.89% (+2.27%)
EFF 4.96% (+4.96%)
COPE 3.60% (-13.07%)
VF+ 1.09% (-0.13%)

Hm. The one place where DA gained less than ANC! Seems like the local COPE folk mostly went back to ANC (and quite a few, actually stayed with COPE), rather than to DA. Wonder why.

Western Cape
DA 59.38% (+3.24%)
ANC 32.89% (+1.44%)
EFF 2.11% (+2.11%)
ACDP 1.02% (-0.45%)
AL J 0.62% (+0.16%)

DA solidifies. Merger with ID is well-digested by now and additional electorate (a bit less than half the COPE vote) is attracted. At this point, DA is the natural party of government here, no question of that. ANC is not doing too badly, even slightly improving, but still it is the opposition, and, likely, for a long time. Everybody else is all but negligible.

[ag]

Too little, for the moment, but US Republicans would, actually, be happy with such a swing in their favor, wouldn't they?

Well, for comparison, Bush got ~15% of the black vote in 2004, which was the best in decades.

Well, DA is, still, probably, not at 15% of the black vote - definitely not in Limpopo. But it has improved.

More importantly, at this point the proportion of its electorate that is black is no longer very small. We will start seeing more and more black DA politicians and voters - simply because there ARE many more now.

[ag]

Seems like this is the final (though still provisional) result

ANC 62.15% votes (-3.75%) 249 seats (-15)
DA 22.23% votes (+4.65% as compared to DA+ID) 89 seats (+18 as compared to DA+ID)
EFF 6.35% votes (+6.35%) 25 seats (+25)
IFP 2.40% votes (-2.15%) 10 seats (-8)
NFP 1.57% votes (+1.57%) 6 seats (+6)
UDM 1.00% votes (+0.15%) 4 seats (nil)
VF+ 0.90% votes (+0.07%) 4 seats (nil)
COPE 0.67% votes (-6.75%) 3 seats (-27)
ACDP 0.57% votes (-0.24%) 3 seats (nil)
AIC 0.53% votes (+0.53%) 3 seats (+3)
AGANG 0.28% votes (+0.28%) 2 seats (+2)
PAC 0.21% votes (-0.06%) 1 seat (nil)
APC 0.17% votes (-0.03%) 1 seat (nil)
AL J 0.14% votes (-0.01%) 0 seats (nil)
MF 0.12% votes (-0.13%) 0 seats (-1)
UCDP 0.12% votes (-0.25%) 0 seats (-2)
AZAPO 0.11% votes (-0.11%) 0 seats (-1)

Everybody else is less than 0.1% each.