I'm guessing Palin runs as an independent an peels off diehard pro-lifers, and Pataki's kind of conservatism helps him win in New England. I think Pataki would also probably be doing well in Washington and Oregon too.
There's really no reason whatsoever to think Pataki would have any special appeal in New England. He'd be lucky to finish in the low 30s in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Being pro-abortion will lose him plenty of conservative votes and certainly isn't going to cause some great GOP swing among the Catholic Democrats who dominate those states. Maine and Connecticut are slightly less absurd, but still quite a stretch. Pataki wouldn't win those unless he's already winning a nationwide landslide. Same for New Jersey and Delaware.
Washington and Oregon aren't going to vote GOP if a conservative third-party candidate is siphoning off lots of Republican votes in the eastern parts of the states. Republicans in those states are quite conservative.
Why wouldn't Pataki do relatively well in New Jersey? New Jersey is D+4 (leaning Democratic but hardly overwhelmingly so). But that's with pro-life Republican nominees. If Pataki is at 50% nationwide but underperforming in a lot of socially conservative states, he has to be overperforming somewhere and New Jersey seems like the most logical place.
