NJ-3: Adler Announces Against Saxton

[Conan]

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-27/119031896985290.xml&storylist=jersey

That means there can possibly be a second exciting race her in NJ for Congress. The other, obviously is the Stender-Ferguson rematch. Adler is a top tier candidate. If he is able to raise near what Saxton has, I'd say there's a great chance he will win. The district is about half GOP and half dem. The dem nominee will do better than Kerry in 08 so I'd says it's not far off to say the democrat nominee for pres will carry this district.

Adler has $200,000
Saxton has $1,200,000

[Conan]

This is really Saxton's first big challenge. He was a nobody in 1990. If he does lose, it wont be by more than 7-10%. Last year's challenger wasn't well known or even known of before he challenged Saxton. Despite all of the gloom already handed down to Adler here, I think you're underestimating the numbers in the district (it's a swing district, could go either way for pres) and Adler. If I were to say he will lose, i'd say it will be:

Saxton - 52-4%
Adler - 46-8%

[Conan]

This is really Saxton's first big challenge. He was a nobody in 1990. If he does lose, it wont be by more than 7-10%. Last year's challenger wasn't well known or even known of before he challenged Saxton. Despite all of the gloom already handed down to Adler here, I think you're underestimating the numbers in the district (it's a swing district, could go either way for pres) and Adler. If I were to say he will lose, i'd say it will be:

Saxton - 52-4%
Adler - 46-8%

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.  It may be a "swing" district, but no matter—Saxton is an institution here.

If Saxton does lose, it won't be by more than 1 or 2%—but like I said, there's not much chance of him losing here.

I believe this is a far superior challenge. National democrats now control congress and completely own the fundraising. NJ is more democratic and less republican. Republicans are in the tank nationally (and in the state) and won't have anyone popular or known running for senate. This is how today is different than 2000. The two are really incomparable. As of this moment, I agree that Saxton will probably win reelection and if he does lose, it's definitely not going to be by more than what you said. I just think youre being a little over dismissive.

[Conan]

According to PoliticsNJ,
Adler will be at a Rangel Sponsored "meet and greet" this wednesday along with 6 other House Candidates.

[Conan]

[Conan]

In this case, "Top Priority" means "Second Priority."  Notice the absence of the real top tier congressional challengers like Linda Stender.  John Unger?  Gary Trauner?  Christine Jennings?  Pffft, good luck.

The DCCC makes these at the end of every fundraising quarter. Linda Stender was in the last one.