Thread of Griping and Such Things

[Leftbehind]

Most the the rise of the far-right is from the blatent failure of the European Socialist/SOcial Democratic Parties. The only countries with a centre-left "on the up" are France, Greece, Denmark and Germany. If the left win in Spain or Portugal, it'll be a major coup.

Agreed with regards to the failure of the Left; the biggest problem for me is Right has all the populism and thus the key to reaching voters; the Left has completely emasculated themselves by accepting and then playing apologist for right-wing economics, rendering it an almost apolitical sphere - a sphere where they would traditionally draw all their populism and appeal from to counter the Right's successful social-populism. Just look at the amazing wealth of populism that could've been capitalised upon (no pun intended) with regards to bankers, and yet our 'democratic socialist' party has at times looked even softer on them than the Tories! Populism, like it or not, is a massive vote-winner (and paper seller - just compare the broadsheets to populist tabloid circulation figures here) and the mainstream left has in recent times lost it all.

[Leftbehind]

The centre-left, in Britain anyway, is too scared to venture outside their post-Thatcherite comfort zone. Terrified by the fates of Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock in 1983 (for sliding left) and 1992 (for not trying hard enough).

You can still be left-wing and not a socialist, without wearing Tory clothes, Labour just don't seem to have picked up on that quite yet.

Yep; those defeats were due to a split left and now it's united again. Labour's task is to keep it united, and ironically the one thing that'll ensure it isn't is if they're still Tory-lite. Hopefully the policy review will start the ball rolling on that - as well as a promise to reverse some of the more harmful coalition policies.

[Leftbehind]

I wouldn't even say Labour were far from winning an election; as you say, their by-election swings have rivalled '97-'01 levels, and they've been consistently ahead in every VI poll for months. The pro-coalition vote is also split between two parties. Even if they don't have the most popular leader, I don't think it'll hurt Labour electorally - there's a desire to get rid of the coalition and the Tories' centrism - which could and did win over swing voters - has been revealed to be nonsense.

The 2001 G/E was repeated recently, and a poll by the BBC/ICM showed the extent of leftists voting Liberal at the time; now if you were to assign those percentages to each parties respective 2001 G/E vote, there's at least 42% agreeing with social-democratic policies - which is where the Labour vote is at these days.

[Leftbehind]

Haha, I say that and ComRes release a poll showing the parties tied...

[Leftbehind]

Haha, I say that and ComRes release a poll showing the parties tied...

Exactly. Over-confidence, lack of media presence and an "uncool" leader is a massive problem for Labour. They haven't had all 3 of them since 1994.

Last month's Scottish election needs to be a massive, unmissable, unavoidable warning to them.

I agree and disagree.

Over-confidence: you could argue the opposite, with people itching to rid Labour of Ed Miliband even though he's improved their standing by at least double figures; and Kinnock's loss in '92 still holds a huge cloud over the party. It seems like if they're not reaching Blair-like leads (leads which will be impossible if Labour want to be on the left), something's wrong.

Lack of media presence: here I agree and disagree - firstly, given the press' inclinations, the less they mention Labour the better, but it does look bad when Miliband's nowhere to be found opposing some hard-to-stomach issues.

Uncool leader: John Smith was sailing away in the polls, despite his uncoolness pre-'94.

Scottish elections: I agree that they need to be a wake-up call; but not in the 'Ian Gray's a poor leader, we need to get rid of Ed' way, but in the sense Labour gave Scots very little reason to vote for them, whereas SNP did. Going back to the ComRes poll, the lower Labour figure seemingly comes primarily from a cross-break of Scots voting SNP rather than Labour.

I think the Scottish lesson is that when there's another social-democratic option there, Labour's lacklustre efforts make them easy evacuates. Of course, a better leader is helpful, but policies that actually inspire people to go out and vote for them is the best vote winner (Attlee etc) and I don't think the other Miliband is anywhere near Ed in willingness to visit that.