NC: CDs 1 & 12 struck down

[Miles]

Here's the ruling. The three-judge Middle NC USDC struck down CD1 and CD12 as racial gerrymanders.

[Miles]

^ Yeah, Brunswick County doesn't vote for any Democrats anymore, but Robeson and Cumberland outweigh it (and both swung to Obama in 2012).

[Miles]

^ From what I'm hearing, any Democratic gains will be minimal.

[Miles]

And we have a map:

[Miles]

^ 12 is the Dem sink. 9 has all of Union County, which is basically a Republican anchor.

The new 13th is basically an open seat. Ellmers and Holding probably both run in CD2.

Yeah, I'm not sure what Adams does, as she's from Greensboro.

[Miles]

^ It should be the same 10-3 barring a wave.

Here's the partisan data. Hagan's best Republican district was CD13, which she lost 52/44.

[Miles]

^Downballot primaries will probably be delayed, but its ambiguous as to when.

[Miles]

The legislators really wanted to get rid of Holding - there were any number of ways that they could have dealt him a better hand. For instance, keeping all of Johnston in CD7 and giving Wayne to CD2 would have helped both Rouzer and Holding.

Ellmers is in surprisingly good shape. Yes, she'll presumably be running against another incumbent, but her primary opponent Jeff Duncan (from Chatham County) now lives in the Triad-centric CD6. Ellmers also represented Johnston, Nash and Franklin counties in the district that she originally won.

[Miles]

^ No, I'm not finding any in the reports.

[Miles]

Yeah, jimrtex, I agree - the split of Bladen County is one the aesthetic points that bugs me the most (putting aside partisan considerations).

The lone Iredell County precinct thats in CD10 is also annoying.

So is that for sure the new map? Also, it would be interesting to see what a map would look like when we gain a CD in 2020.

Assuming the SCOTUS doesn't issue a stay, it should be.

My guess is that in 2020, they add a Democratic seat either in the Triad or by combining the eastern parts of the new CDs 8 and 9 (Fayetteville-Lumberton area). I think with this map in mind, though, the former seems more likely (which would be good news for Alma Adams, who stands to be booted out now).

[Miles]

The SCOTUS refused to stay the case. These are the new maps.

[Miles]

^ State Sen. Malcolm Graham gave up his Senate seat to run for NC-12 in 2014. He carried the Mecklenburg part of the district pretty easily.

[Miles]

Do you have any information on the candidate filing deadline?

According to Politics1, the Congressional filing deadline is March 25.

[Miles]

^ The legislature's data actually has Perdue winning CD6 by 1%, but McCrory won CD13 by 2%. That said, I think Perdue has appeal in the VA border counties, Rockingham especially, that will be hard to replicate in non-wave years.


The plaintiffs have until Monday to file any objections they have with the new map.