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Not in the slightest bit surprising. The Republican Party is just a domestic terrorist organization now, openly gleeful at the prospect of using the pardon power whenever they can to put murderers and felons on the street - as long as they are MAGA. trump is openly talking about doing this with all of the J6 terrorists.

Vogel lost, all is well

NV.

Polling suggests NV but given GA votes for R historically and NV is the opposite I’d go with GA here

Not that I believe the margins in most current polls, but NV has repeatedly been a disappointment for the GOP. By comparison, they did ok in GA in 2022.

The past is past; if we were simply extrapolating based off previous results rather than the considering present data as well, then this wouldn't even be a question.

If Trump wins again that will alleviate things. While things also lurching backwards, that is clearly the only time anyone cares-when almost all is pretty much already lost.

His point about polling missing in the opposite direction of conventional wisdom is nonscientific garbage.

I said this earlier, but if an error is truly an error it can’t be predicted in advance, otherwise it would and should be accounted for. True errors are random. Having the same or predictable bias is just bad science.

I would note, too, that 1) college educated suburbs are much more college educated than they were 30-40 years ago, matching the overall trend towards higher educational attainment nationally.  The number of post-baccalaureate degree holders is also growing faster than the number of baccalaureate degree holders.  30 years ago, it would not be difficult to find a state school grad and his non-degreed wife living in Evanston or Winnetka...that's probably not very true anymore.  2) White college grads have gotten substantially more secular over the past 30-40 years.   

well this begs the question - have white college grads themselves changed? Because if they voted as they once did - DuPage would probably vote republican. Is it possible that white college grads have gone from looking like this:
https://i.scdn.co/image/ab67616d0000b2732fdfd160d2803cbad91842c3


to this?
https://i.cdn.tbs.com/assets/images/big-bang-theory-628x353.jpg

I'm actually not sure if the conventional wisdom is that Trump will overperform his polls because he has twice before, or if he will underperform his polls because pollsters are overcompensating after the last 2 elections. In any case, I think Nate's "rule" is a rule of thumb at best. A more likely than not thing.

I guess it could be argued either way, so Nate can claim he was right no matter what happens.

It's hard to come up with concrete criticisms of the Democratic party as a whole.

Progressive Democrats:
wealth tax, hostility towards entrepreneurship

Dem establishment:
NIMBYism, restrictive zoning policies

Atlas D-avatars:
full federal marijuana legalization

Is there no early voting for this?

I think early voting opened up a couple weeks ago and ended last weekend

This race seems to be gaining traction among the resist lib crowd, so I'm expecting a competitive race

Oh, I'm shocked no one has done any updates. I saw GeorgiaVotes is back - is this data for the SC race? (are there other things on the ballot on 5/21 or just this race?)

https://georgiavotes.com/

I mean it's a non partisan race and the last time a GA supreme court incumbent lost was in the 1800s I believe. Not to mention Barrow is running a pro abortion campaign but was one of the most pro life Dems when he served in Congress.

Remember that Trump’s 2020 vote share increase among black voters was more because of decreased turnout among this group than people flipping from D to R (in fact, 2020 exit polls indicated that only 1% of black 2016 Clinton voters flipped to Trump in 2020). The decrease in turnout can be attributed to Democrats not reaching out to this group as much as they did before, along with the fact that most blacks have traditionally preferred Election Day voting over absentee voting (the latter of which dominated the 2020 election).

Yeah, dems didn't reach out to black voters at all in 2020 where BLM dominated the news. They definitely did not bend over backwards to win their vote