MO-SUSA: McCaskill leads Graves by 4

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'd say McCaskill has somewhat lower odds of winning than some might think.

Higher than Carnahan, though.

Actually, going in, Carnahan's odds were much better.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No one here is counting McCaskil out. On the contrary, we are pushing back against those who are "counting her in".

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Graves getting 21% of the black vote? Good luck with that.....

Remember, the cross tabs are tiny so they have a high margin of error.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Graves getting 21% of the black vote? Good luck with that.....

Remember, the cross tabs are tiny so they have a high margin of error.

I realize that (and wondered how long it would take someone to say it---2 minutes 10 seconds, congratulations Yank. ), but the final poll results are still based on 21% of MO's 10% African-American vote going Republican. With Obama at the top of the ballot no less (and narrowly carrying MO ). I have no doubt the numbers are off with small cross tab sample sizes, but my point is that makes these numbers look a bit better for McCaskill.

Not as much as you might think. And the overall sample is large enough to be reasonably accurate to the extent that is possible this far out.