RI's 2016 Precinct Map Thread

[RI]

Anybody have New Hampshire or Maine?

New Hampshire by precinct doesn't get you much more than a town map does:


Swing:

[RI]

Indiana:


Swing (approximate):

[RI]

It would be extremely interesting to see the '08 Pres GE number for Indiana and the '08 > '16 swings, but this is data this is likely virtually impossible to obtain, unless someone like yourself or Alcon generated a map back in '08 to give us an idea...

2008 data is actually some of the easiest to get. All I can say is to have a bit of patience... Good things are coming.

[RI]

Has any headway been made on the Missouri map?

Missouri, and thus the national map, is a handful of counties from being completed.

[RI]

Colorado:

[RI]

Do you have the swing map for CA?

I had one, but I realized I made some errors when I created it. I haven't gotten around to remaking it yet, but I probably will do so some time this week.

[RI]

Colorado swing map:


I'm seeing a trend in a lot of these western swing maps: the areas swinging toward Hillary tend to be more white while the areas that are more Hispanic tend to be swinging toward Trump. Not that it proves anything, but still.

[RI]

On Mississippi's map:

Could it be a mistake in Hinds County located in Jackson (West) where there is a lonely blue dot in a sea of red?

It appears the City of Jackson slightly renumbered their precincts in 2013. I'll fix it.

EDIT: Here's the corrected version:

[RI]

Arizona, please?  I'd love to see the swing map.

I've already posted the 2016 AZ results. As far as swing goes, AZ's rough because there have been a lot of precinct changes and consolidations in the rural areas between 2012 and 2016. I'm not sure how well it will work, but I can give it a shot.

[RI]

Here's my AZ swing attempt. It appears the story here is a bit more nuanced than in Colorado. The Hispanic areas of Phoenix and Tucson swung slightly one way or the other but not by that much while the big Dem gains were in the white suburbs west of Phoenix and north of Tucson. However, the Dems did make big gains in many of the heavily Hispanic parts of Santa Cruz and Yuma Counties along the Mexican border, but not really in Cochise County along the border. Perhaps this is due to higher levels of immigration as opposed to swings? I'm not sure.

[RI]

Is anyone working on Florida?

I'm real curious.

There's a map of Florida on page 4.

[RI]

Now plz put together a US-wide precinct map of all the states you did so far ...

This and more is coming soon. Very soon.

[RI]

Now plz put together a US-wide precinct map of all the states you did so far ...

This and more is coming soon. Very soon.

Better interest-grabber than Maddow's tweet. I look forward to it.

Looks like Tuesday's going to be a big day.

In regards to South Boston, 56.6% have less than high school degree, so it's still a working class seat by in large, why did it swing to Clinton so heavily?

Uh, all the areas near and in Boston with lower than average education levels swung toward Trump. The actual neighborhood of South Boston has been thoroughly gentrified by young, educated professionals and actually pretty well off now.

[RI]

Sadly, it looks like the great unveiling has been bumped to tomorrow. Not my decision. Sorry.

[RI]

Sadly, it looks like the great unveiling has been bumped to tomorrow. Not my decision. Sorry.

Way to keep us in suspense....

Looking forward to the final product, as with all of your awesome projects....  

It's out of my hands. I'm hoping a certain third party will get back to me today; that's the last hurdle to get over. If it were up to me, I'd have posted the maps already.

[RI]

Missing are:

Arkansas, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Missouri, Vermont; Miles&others have made NC&SC, LA and AK.

They aren't "missing" as much as I haven't bothered posting them.

Sadly, it looks like the great unveiling has been bumped to tomorrow. Not my decision. Sorry.

Way to keep us in suspense....

Looking forward to the final product, as with all of your awesome projects.... 

It's out of my hands. I'm hoping a certain third party will get back to me today; that's the last hurdle to get over. If it were up to me, I'd have posted the maps already.

So is it coming out today or tomorrow? I'm confused right now xD

Ok, here's the deal: Right before I finished the national map(s), I made a deal with a website so that I'd let them host the maps initially in exchange for money and them paying to host interactive versions of the maps. It was meant to go live last week, but another (much larger) website who might also license the data from me expressed interest at the last minute . We've given them a deadline of today to get back to us before we press on and go live. If they don't respond, it goes live tomorrow. If they do respond, it might delay things another day or two. I should know by the end of today.

[RI]

The full map goes live tomorrow morning, and I'm 99.99999999999% sure there won't be any more delays.

[RI]

Here it is. Per my agreement with them, I'll wait to post the Atlas-colored maps until Saturday.

EDIT: Looks like we crashed the interactive. Sad.

[RI]

Got a couple of short #analysis pieces from this coming today, too. Here's the first: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/education-best-explains-the-presidential-swing-map/

[RI]

Wondering why Kansas' swing map is so speckled. Perhaps just Hispanic influx? Idk it doesn't look like Nebraska, even close to the state border...

Kansas has much smaller precincts than any of its surrounding states, which allows for more variation. Don't know why.

Edit: Also, Kansas had some Brownback blowback.

[RI]

My second article: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/hispanic-heterogeneity-in-the-2016-election/

[RI]

My second article: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/hispanic-heterogeneity-in-the-2016-election/

Latino Decisions called my article "fake news." lol

[RI]

This was before Carto.com, though - and I never tried putting a similar map up there.  I imagine Carto.com would charge an arm and a leg and/or crash under the server load were you to put a similar map with DDHQ-driven (instead of just Atlas or RRH-driven) traffic up there.

Carto said they'd charge $6000 a month to host the map given the traffic and detail. We had 75,000+ views in the first 20 minutes before the interactive crashed.

[RI]

This is a pretty specific question, but does anybody know what's up with that one strong democrat rural precinct in Illinois on the Indiana border up north right east of Kankakee?

That's Pembroke Township, which is 80% Black.

[RI]

An insane amount of people online think that election maps are "misleading" because ... the country is not uniform in population density.

They would be misleading if they were used not to look at geographic patterns but instead to tell who won more total votes. But, good news, we've got Arabic numerals for that.

What's worse is that precinct maps actually do visually demonstrate population density through the density of precincts.