EG's State Senate Thread

[JerryArkansas]

Telling you this now before you get to Arkansas, it can be hard on judging the ratings of each district.  If you wish, can you send them to me and I could tell you what I think the rating would be.

[JerryArkansas]

Arkansas:



8: 71.8% McCain, 25.4% Obama
16: 62.5% McCain, 35.1% Obama
17: 61.4% McCain, 36.7% Obama
18: 67.3% McCain, 29.4% Obama
19: 55.8% McCain, 41.6% Obama
21: 67.1% McCain, 30.0% Obama
22: 59.7% Obama, 38.8% McCain
24: 62.1% McCain, 35.3% Obama
29: 64.5% McCain, 32.5% Obama
30: 68.9% McCain, 27.8% Obama
31: 63.9% McCain, 32.4% Obama
32: 66.3% McCain, 30.3% Obama
33: 63.7% McCain, 33.1% Obama
34: 58.1% McCain, 37.7% Obama
35: 64.9% McCain, 32.0% Obama

Northwest Close-Up:



1: 68.5% McCain, 29.4% Obama
2: 63.6% McCain, 34.1% Obama
3: 68.4% McCain, 29.7% Obama
4: 53.0% Obama, 45.1% McCain
5: 64.3% McCain, 33.6% Obama
6: 69.8% McCain, 27.2% Obama
7: 61.0% McCain, 37.1% Obama

Little Rock Inner Close-Up:



9: 79.8% Obama, 18.8% McCain
10: 72.3% Obama, 26.5% McCain
11: 50.8% McCain, 47.7% Obama
12: 61.6% McCain, 36.7% Obama
13: 64.1% McCain, 33.9% Obama
27: 56.6% McCain, 41.5% Obama

Little Rock Outer Close-Up:



14: 60.7% McCain, 37.0% Obama
15: 62.5% Obama, 35.4% McCain
20: 66.7% McCain, 31.3% Obama
25: 75.6% McCain, 22.2% Obama

Northeast Close-Up:



23: 52.0% Obama, 45.9% McCain
26: 60.5% McCain, 37.2% Obama
28: 60.2% McCain, 36.6% Obama

I'll let Jerry assess this.

All districts bolded I would expect to be won by the democratic candidate.  That would bring the partisan breakdown to 19/16 Democratic.  Districts I have labeled in Brown will by 2020 become competitive due to Hispanic growth.  I expect that map makers in 2020 will have to draw a Hispanic Majority Senate district and 2 House districts by then due to the growth.

[JerryArkansas]

Jerry, you've always been too generous to democrats in Arkansas. You do realize the state senate currently is 22/13 and getting more republican every couple of years? I expect democrats to win some of those McCain districts for sure, but not many of those going >60%. Southern and Northeastern Arkansas have old democratic roots, but as demonstrated by the recent special election, another one of those red democratic seat holders is now gone (something like the 26 on my map). There is a clear trend here, and I don't think its just because of Obama.

Anyway, I would just take away 18, 21, 24, 31, 12, and maybe 16 from your list of democratic seats. I suppose I'll settle the % and partisan control a bit later.

18 keep, that one is almost the same as a current district which is already in the camber, that is why I have it for dems.  I will concede the others except for the 16th.  I do realize how Republican it is at the moment, but the democratic party still exists and until the old generation dies, they will be competive.

[JerryArkansas]

How much to Latinos in NW Arkansas vote? In 2020, AR may prefer to draw one heavily Latino district that will for sure elect a candidate of choice.

They hardly vote at all.  I drew a senate district which was 40% Hispanic and it was 65% McCain.  So, they are either not voting, or are very Republican, and the former is more likely.

[JerryArkansas]

How much to Latinos in NW Arkansas vote? In 2020, AR may prefer to draw one heavily Latino district that will for sure elect a candidate of choice.

They hardly vote at all.  I drew a senate district which was 40% Hispanic and it was 65% McCain.  So, they are either not voting, or are very Republican, and the former is more likely.

Yeah, they'll probably want to pack it to be very Latino then, to insulate them from a legal challenge.

If Republicans are in control, then yes they will.