When is the Last time an incumbent Senator lost by as much as Santorum?

[TheresNoMoney]

Rick Santorum was absolutely smoked by Bob Casey by 18%.

Has an incumbent Senator ever lost by this much before? When was the last time it happened? Anybody know?

[merseysider]

I think Jim Sasser got a real drubbing in Tennessee in '94, but I think that was more like 15-16 points.

[RBH]

Blowouts in history

1994, TN: Frist over Sasser, 57/42
1978, ME: William Cohen over William Hathaway, 57/34
1978, MN: Rudy Boschwitz over Wendell Anderson, 57/40
1948, IA: Guy Gillette over George Wilson, 58/42
1948, MN: Hubert Humphrey over Joseph Ball, 60/40

[Saxwsylvania]

The biggest defeat since George McGovern's 19-point loss to James Abdnor in 1980.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Van Der Blub is right.  Abdnor beat McGovern 58%-39% only to be defeated six years later by Tom Daschle, who, of course we all know lost very narrowly to John Thune in 2004.  That South Dakota seat is quite volatile.  If Hersheth eventually challenged Thune in 2010, who knows...but I digress. 

[bullmoose88]

I think Van Der Blub is right.  Abdnor beat McGovern 58%-39% only to be defeated six years later by Tom Daschle, who, of course we all know lost very narrowly to John Thune in 2004.  That South Dakota seat is quite volatile.  If Hersheth eventually challenged Thune in 2010, who knows...but I digress. 

Thune seems pretty popular in SD (at least to me, someone from the outside, so take it for what its worth), Perhaps Herseth is better off hoping Johnson decides to not run again, or that she makes a primary challenge?

It'd be a shame to possibly waste her star power against a guy like Thune (who could probably fend her off in a typical year)...

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Van Der Blub is right.  Abdnor beat McGovern 58%-39% only to be defeated six years later by Tom Daschle, who, of course we all know lost very narrowly to John Thune in 2004.  That South Dakota seat is quite volatile.  If Hersheth eventually challenged Thune in 2010, who knows...but I digress. 

Thune seems pretty popular in SD (at least to me, someone from the outside, so take it for what its worth), Perhaps Herseth is better off hoping Johnson decides to not run again, or that she makes a primary challenge?

It'd be a shame to possibly waste her star power against a guy like Thune (who could probably fend her off in a typical year)...

Well from a preliminary perspective 2010 will be a midterm election with a Democrat in the White House so perhaps Hersheth should sit out that one.  She could also run for Governor that year.  I don't think a primary challenge to Johnson is very likely.  The South Dakota delagation is close and the Democrats would probably lose the statewide House seat.  That is the other thing to mention; in South Dakota, North Dakota, Wyoming, Montana and Vermont the Representative is just as well known as the Senators as they represent the entire state and are just as well known.  So 69% of South Dakotans already voted for Hersheth. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What about non-incumbent party pickups? Obama beat Keyes 70-27. As for governor's races, Spitzer won 69-29.

[Deano963]

What about non-incumbent party pickups? Obama beat Keyes 70-27. As for governor's races, Spitzer won 69-29.

There are at least a couple governors this year who won with bigger margins than Spitzer.

Lynch won with 74% and Heineman did as well. Freudenthal captured 70% in Wyoming (which is AMAZING by the way). Richardson also captured 69%.

[nclib]

Spitzer and Strickland were the only non-incumbent Governors to crack 60%. Sanders was the only non-incumbent Senator to crack 60%.

[minionofmidas]

The biggest margin an incumbent member of the House lost by was Hostettler's 22 points. When was the last time an incumbent lost by more in the House? (Not counting Jim Traficant.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The biggest margin an incumbent member of the House lost by was Hostettler's 22 points. When was the last time an incumbent lost by more in the House? (Not counting Jim Traficant.)

Some Georgia Democrat lost by 30pts in 1994 IIRC

[WalterMitty]

What about non-incumbent party pickups? Obama beat Keyes 70-27.

that shouldnt count.

OMFG HE SHOULD RUN FOR PREZ111111.  HE HAS THE AUDASITY OF HOPE LOZL!11

[Ben.]

OMFG HE SHOULD RUN FOR PREZ111111.  HE HAS THE AUDASITY OF HOPE LOZL!11

Harsh... true, but still Harsh, funny though

I've got a soft spot for Obama, but he nowhere near ready for a national election, four years in the senate, some good retoric and a moderate to liberal voting record and that's all you've got... he much better than Edwards, but that's not saying a whole lot.

[TheresNoMoney]

OMFG HE SHOULD RUN FOR PREZ111111.  HE HAS THE AUDASITY OF HOPE LOZL!11

Given your horrendous track record at making predictions, Obama will be our president in 2008.

[WalterMitty]

OMFG HE SHOULD RUN FOR PREZ111111.  HE HAS THE AUDASITY OF HOPE LOZL!11

Given your horrendous track record at making predictions, Obama will be our president in 2008.

that doesnt mean he *should* or *deserves* to be president.

[Nym90]

If special elections and appointed incumbents are counted, one cannot forget Bob Kreuger's 67-33 defeat at the hands of Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas in 1993. But as I said, that was a special election and Kreuger had been appointed to replace Lloyd Bentsen.

So Santorum had the worst defeat by an incumbent elected Senator since George McGovern. Not exactly good company to be in.

[socaldem]

OMFG HE SHOULD RUN FOR PREZ111111.  HE HAS THE AUDASITY OF HOPE LOZL!11

Given your horrendous track record at making predictions, Obama will be our president in 2008.

that doesnt mean he *should* or *deserves* to be president.

It doesn't matter who *deserves* to be president... All that matters is that you have the political skills to win--just ask Al Gore.