FiveThirtyEight's "Way-Too-Early 2020 Democratic Primary Draft"

[TheLeftwardTide]

Sherrod Brown is criminally underrated in this draft.

Agreed

Remember, Jim Webb is the anti-Hillary.

Unlike Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb would have won a national election.

Absolutely. Alot of conservatives and moderates would have voted for him

And the progressive base might've gone to Jill Stein in resignation and flipped places such as Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Florida instead of The Rust Belt

Yeah, that’s one thing that tends to get lost when people talk about the merits of [INSERT CENTRIST CANDIDATE HERE]. If you run someone that’s too moderate, the more ideological flank of the party might go third party or stay home.

When people think of a "centrist democrat", they usually think of a "fiscally conservative socially liberal" candidate. Jim Webb is pretty much the opposite of that. There are a plethora of "fiscally conservative socially liberal" Democrats, but there are very few that are built in the opposite mold. John Bel Edwards is the only one that comes to the top of my head.

Personally, I would definitely vote for Jim Webb in a general election. I don't think it's the progressive base that wouldn't turn out for Webb, but rather the socially liberal part (mostly suburbanites) who would consider his positions on things like the Confederacy inexcusable. However, there is definitely quite a bit of overlap between the two.

The real question is, how much would this drop in support hurt Webb in a general election? This would be very dependent on how much he would be able to "reverse" the GOP southern strategy.

[Rjjr77]

Cuomo is easily a top tier contender with his name, his base and his donor connections. Depending on how it shakes out hes actually my preferred odds bet to win the nomination

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Cuomo is easily a top tier contender with his name, his base and his donor connections. Depending on how it shakes out hes actually my preferred odds bet to win the nomination

Cuomo has a strong whiff of corruption about him that can easily explode.

And if you're looking for a candidate who could plausibly win the nomination yet get the far left to do anything but vote D, Cuomo is your man.

[Bull Moose Base]

I can only go as far as 20.

I agree with their top 4 and order.

1. Warren
2. Sanders
3. Biden
4. Harris

Then I'll do another 5 who seems likely to run, would appeal to a key demographic.

5. Garcetti
6. Booker
7. Gillibrand
8. Klobuchar
9. Castro

After that, I do think perception of electability will be an advantage, particularly if 2020 is looking tough for Democrats so another 5 on that count.

10.Bullock
11.Brown
12.Kander
13.Moulton
14.Ryan

Then a few who are unlikely to run but would do well if they do or else likely to run but hard to see doing well

15.Franken
16.Cuomo
17.Merkley

And rounding out the top 20, I just put 3 together to form a single Irish-sounding person.

18.Patrick
19.Murphy
20.O'Malley

[Mr. Morden]

I can only go as far as 20.

I agree with their top 4 and order.

1. Warren
2. Sanders
3. Biden
4. Harris

Then I'll do another 5 who seems likely to run, would appeal to a key demographic.

5. Garcetti
6. Booker
7. Gillibrand
8. Klobuchar
9. Castro

After that, I do think perception of electability will be an advantage, particularly if 2020 is looking tough for Democrats so another 5 on that count.

10.Bullock
11.Brown
12.Kander
13.Moulton
14.Ryan

Then a few who are unlikely to run but would do well if they do or else likely to run but hard to see doing well

15.Franken
16.Cuomo
17.Merkley

And rounding out the top 20, I just put 3 together to form a single Irish-sounding person.

18.Patrick
19.Murphy
20.O'Malley

All right, you've prompted me to make my own list, which is closer to your list than the 538 list:

1) Warren
2) Sanders
3) Harris
4) Biden
5) Booker
6) Gillibrand
7) Garcetti
8 ) Klobuchar
9) Franken
10) Brown
11) Bullock
12) Castro
13) Patrick
14) Cuomo
15) Moulton
16) Merkley
17) Gabbard
18) Murphy
19) Kander
20) Clinton
21) Ryan
22) O’Malley
23) de Blasio
24) Hickenlooper
25) McAuliffe

That said, I wrote that in a hurry, and could probably be talked into moving many of the names around if anyone wants to give a compelling argument.  It's tough when you get into the 20s.  I mean, at #25, McAuliffe has no more than about a 1% chance of being the nominee.  How do you distinguish between a 1% probability event vs. a 2% event vs. a one half % event?  It's pretty much a shot in the dark.

[Mr. Morden]

5. Garcetti

You think? I'd like this, but could it happen?

I can't speak for BMB, but I definitely think it could.  Garcetti seems like a skilled pol, and it sounds like he's interested in a presidential run, so why not?  I wouldn’t put him in the top 5 like BMB did, but after Warren, Sanders, Harris, Biden, Booker, Gillibrand, who are the top 6 on my list, who else is there?  If you exclude those six, then Garcetti seems as likely as anyone.  Brown and Franken would (IMHO) be more likely to win the nomination than Garcetti if they were to actually run, but since it sounds like he’s more interested in running than they are, I’ve got him ahead of them.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Hm, I'll try to make my own list, but at this point it really is a shot in the dark.

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Sanders
4. Biden
5. Gillibrand
6. Booker
7. Klobucher
8. Brown
9. Franken
10. Murphy
11. Bullock
12. Merkley
13. Garcetti
14. Castro
15. McAuliffe
16. Moulton
17. Patrick
18. Cuomo
19. Kander
20. Gore
21. Gabbard
22. Kander
23. O'Malley
24. de Blasio
25. Ryan
26. Baldwin
27. Duckworth
28. Hickenlooper
29. Clinton
30. Feingold

[Mr. Morden]

19. Kander
20. Gore
21. Gabbard
22. Kander

Kander is both more and less likely than Gore and Gabbard.