MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[GeorgiaModerate]

I insist that we resist and persist by assisting Quist who will hopefully deport the Gianfort. (I had to leave off the e from his name otherwise it would not have worked as well. Surely if people can corrupt it to Pianoforte, I can just drop an e...)

Desist!

[The Other Castro]

I'll guess Gravis has G+5.

[The Other Castro]

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https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/653200?unlock=SOV8HJ4QZYZGD2I1

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

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https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/653200?unlock=SOV8HJ4QZYZGD2I1

While that's definitely true, I think the media generally underestimate how much of the pro-Trump vote was really anti-Clinton

[MT Treasurer]

Quist currently at a 34% chance on PredictIt: https://www.predictit.org/Market/2961/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Montana

How many predictIt users are intimately familiar with Montana politics?

Judging from the comment section, not many.

Yeah, this sort of thing leads me to be deeply skeptical of betting markets. Are they good for assessing the cosmopolitan elite's conventional wisdom? Yes. Is that vaguely influential on world events? Yes. Does that mean that they're strongly predictive? No.

Yeah. I mean, I always had this race in the Toss-up column (even when these junk Gravis polls showed Gianforte up 10 or something like that) so I'm glad that I was proven right. The overreactions are hilarious though, and it looks like some people are intent on making stuff up (like that "Republican" who thinks Quist will win in a landslide "based on evidence he is seeing on the ground"). Unfortunately, some idiots are deliberately spreading misinformation in order to cause confusion - there is a guy who says that the Gravis poll will show a Tie, but I'm not sure what to make of it.

Like I said before, it's probably the best to ignore most, if not all of this hype. After 2016, we shouldn't overract to this stuff anymore.

Btw: Even that National Journal article points out that Quist really isn't a better candidate than Gianforte: "Quist is an even worse can­did­ate. His pop­u­list charm is an as­set in a state will­ing to elect work­ing-class Demo­crats, but that’s about all he has go­ing for him." I agree with this assessment (except for the "working-class Democrats" nonsense), and laying all the blame on Gianforte would be ridiculous. Let's be clear here: If the Republicans lose this race, it will be pretty devastating for the Montana GOP, which just recently swept all statewide offices except Governor. I'm not saying that this necessarily tells us anything about the Senate race in 2018, but the party needs to get its act together.

But like you said, a lot of the Trump vote was really just against Clinton.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Are we gonna get our polling from Gravis in anytime soon now?

[mattocaster6]

Are we gonna get our polling from Gravis in anytime soon now?

Should be out any minute now.

[Brittain33]

5PM EST = 6PM EDT.

[heatcharger]

5PM EST = 6PM EDT.

Gravis is such a joke.

[cinyc]

5PM EST = 6PM EDT.

Gravis is such a joke.

Let's wait to see if they polled the non-existent Green candidate again before definitively calling them a joke.

They're just late.  But they said around 5 Est, not 5PM on the dot.  It takes time to write up their analysis.  Note that the server for their website's Blog and Poll results has been down since at least yesterday.

[mattocaster6]

5PM EST = 6PM EDT.

Gravis is such a joke.

Let's wait to see if they polled the non-existent Green candidate again before definitively calling them a joke.

They're just late.  But they said around 5 Est, not 5PM on the dot.  It takes time to write up their analysis.  Note that the server for their website's Blog and Poll results has been down since at least yesterday.

Can you give us some hints from your google poll, is it close so far or is one candidate far ahead?

[heatcharger]

5PM EST = 6PM EDT.

Gravis is such a joke.

Let's wait to see if they polled the non-existent Green candidate again before definitively calling them a joke.

They're just late.  But they said around 5 Est, not 5PM on the dot.  It takes time to write up their analysis.  Note that the server for their website's Blog and Poll results has been down since at least yesterday.

This fits into the pattern of them being a completely unprofessional pollster. They spell candidates names wrong, include candidates who aren't on the ballot, copy other pollsters publishing formats, all in addition to being a totally unreliable polling outfit, which is the least they could do.

Also, Matt, relax.

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti‏ @gdebenedetti  
Some R operatives breathing small sighs of relief that Comey won't testify Wed, just before MT votes: may not've hurt, def wouldn't help.

Josh Barro @jbarro
Josh Barro Retweeted Gabriel Debenedetti
Leaves the newscycle unobstructed for the CBO score saying what the AHCA will do to healthcare

Ben Jacobs‏ @Bencjacobs
Ben Jacobs Retweeted Josh Barro
Which is a much bigger deal in Montana

[cinyc]

Can you give us some hints from your google poll, is it close so far or is one candidate far ahead?

Sorry.  I don't want to say much about the poll until it is done.  I don't think I've commented much on the last 5 Google Surveys I've done before before they were done - and would like to keep that policy.  Early results aren't necessarily representative (though we're probably getting to that stage now).  It's at 390/567, so we're probably looking at it being complete some time tomorrow unless the speed picks up.  And I've never been sure that these Google Surveys are worth anything, anyway, even when complete.

[Fubart Solman]

Gabriel Debenedetti‏ @gdebenedetti  
Some R operatives breathing small sighs of relief that Comey won't testify Wed, just before MT votes: may not've hurt, def wouldn't help.

Josh Barro @jbarro
Josh Barro Retweeted Gabriel Debenedetti
Leaves the newscycle unobstructed for the CBO score saying what the AHCA will do to healthcare

Ben Jacobs‏ @Bencjacobs
Ben Jacobs Retweeted Josh Barro
Which is a much bigger deal in Montana

A lot of votes will probably be cemented before this comes out. It could sway day-of voters who are still on the fence though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is even pathetic for Gravis. The poll should have been released forever ago.

[_]

2 hours later

[Maxwell]

Final Prediction:
50% Gianforte
47% Quist

[MT Treasurer]

This is even pathetic for Gravis. The poll should have been released forever ago.

Yeah, embarrassing.

[_]

Literally 2 hours later

[The Other Castro]

To be fair, they said in response to a tweet that they would "hopefully" have it out at the stated time. That's by no means a promise, and they probably aren't even aware that many people are carefully watching for the exact timing of its update.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/866794001948700672

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lol

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Anyone who defends Gravis for something like this, (plus on top of that we will probably get crap results like tomorrow), probably has stockholm syndrome or something.

[Adam Griffin]

They're obviously having to do some last-minute crosstab fudging before it's ready.

[GlobeSoc]

They're obviously having to do some last-minute crosstab fudging before it's ready.

They could be just that incompetent