latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

After much volatility in the last ~36 hours, we're currently at:

Up: Rubio
Down: Bush, Walker, Cruz

Bush 41.8
Walker 17.7
Rubio 15.8
Trump 9.1
Fiorina 6.8
Huckabee 6.2
Kasich 5.7
Paul 5.3
Cruz 4.0
Carson 3.8
Christie 3.3

So yes, Fiorina has passed Huckabee, and is now up to 5th place.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush drifts a bit further down, may soon drop below 40.  Fiorina off of her big post-debate gains (still way up compared to her pre-debate #s though).  Kasich back up to 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 78.7
Sanders 13.8
Biden 7.8

Republicans
Bush 40.3
Walker 16.8
Rubio 14.5
Trump 7.5
Kasich 6.2
Huckabee 5.0
Carson 4.2
Fiorina 4.2
Cruz 4.0
Paul 4.0
Christie 3.3

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2986870#msg2986870

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1261358#msg1261358

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[Mr. Morden]

The markets continue to be turbulent....

Bush back below 40, Trump back above 10, Cruz passes Kasich for 5th place, and Paul has lost half his value from two weeks ago.

Up: Trump, Cruz, Fiorina
Down: Bush

Bush 38.2
Walker 16.3
Rubio 15.4
Trump 11.4
Cruz 6.2
Kasich 6.0
Fiorina 5.8
Huckabee 5.0
Carson 4.0
Paul 3.4
Christie 3.3

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio moves ahead of Walker to take 2nd place.

Up: Rubio, Fiorina
Down: Bush, Trump

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 13.1
Biden 10.5

Republicans
Bush 36.1
Rubio 16.8
Walker 15.8
Trump 8.4
Fiorina 7.0
Kasich 5.7
Cruz 5.3
Huckabee 4.2
Carson 4.0
Paul 4.0
Christie 2.9

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2988439#msg2988439

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1263154#msg1263154

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[Mr. Morden]

Kasich back up to 5th place.

Up: Bush
Down: Fiorina

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 16.3

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 16.3
Walker 14.9
Trump 7.8
Kasich 6.5
Fiorina 5.8
Cruz 5.3
Huckabee 4.2
Carson 4.0
Paul 4.0

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2990488#msg2990488

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Eight year ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1265021#msg1265021

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[Mr. Morden]

Clinton and Sanders drop as Biden gains.  Walker sinks further.  On June 11th, he was at 22.  Now down to just under 13.

Democrats
Clinton 75.2
Sanders 14.1
Biden 12.2

Republicans
Bush 38.8
Rubio 15.8
Walker 12.8
Trump 8.1
Kasich 6.2
Fiorina 5.0
Cruz 4.8
Huckabee 4.8
Carson 4.0
Paul 4.0

Four years ago today on Intrade (note how high Ryan was back then--that's because of this story):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2993865#msg2993865

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1267852#msg1267852

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[Mr. Morden]

Up: Clinton, Walker, Trump
Down: Biden, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 76.9
Sanders 13.8
Biden 10.0

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Rubio 15.8
Walker 14.1
Trump 9.5
Kasich 6.2
Cruz 4.8
Fiorina 4.8
Huckabee 4.5
Carson 4.0
Paul 3.7

Four years ago at roughly this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2996022#msg2996022

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1268745#msg1268745

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[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Sanders 13.1
Biden 10.0

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 15.8
Walker 13.8
Trump 11.9
Kasich 6.0
Fiorina 4.8
Huckabee 4.8
Cruz 4.5
Carson 4.0
Paul 4.0

Four years ago at roughly this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2997907#msg2997907

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1270213#msg1270213

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Will Sanders manage to get as high as the 18.3 that Obama was at on Intrade 8 years ago today?

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton dropping like a rock; Trump surging into third place, now beating Walker.

Democrats
Clinton 71.9
Sanders 12.8
Biden 11.1
O’Malley 2.6

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 15.4
Trump 14.5
Walker 13.4
Kasich 6.5
Cruz 4.5
Huckabee 4.5
Fiorina 4.2
Carson 4.0
Paul 3.1

Winning Individual
Clinton 46.3
Bush 18.0
Biden 7.5
Trump 6.8
Rubio 5.8
Sanders 5.8
Walker 4.0
Kasich 3.4
Huckabee 2.2

[Mr. Morden]

On June 27th, Trump was at 3.4, while Paul was at 10.5.  That was less than two months ago.  Still plenty of time before Iowa for plenty of other candidates to get their turn either crashing and burning or shooting way up.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump has moved up to a tie with Rubio for 2nd place.  Clinton’s dropping at just the point in the cycle when she was rising eight years ago.

Up: Sanders, Trump
Down: Clinton, Bush, Carson, Huckabee

Democrats
Clinton 70.9
Sanders 14.9
Biden 11.6
O’Malley 2.6

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Rubio 15.8
Trump 15.8
Walker 13.4
Kasich 6.5
Cruz 4.8
Fiorina 4.5
Carson 2.6
Huckabee 2.6
Paul 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2999030#msg2999030

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1271681#msg1271681

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Bush’s 36.6 right now is similar to frontrunners Perry in 2011 (34.5) and Giuliani in 2007 (37.0).  Neither of them ended up winning a single primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 70.9
Sanders 13.8
Biden 12.8

Republicans
Bush 37.2
Rubio 15.3
Trump 15.3
Walker 13.4
Kasich 5.5
Cruz 5.0
Fiorina 4.3
Carson 3.3
Christie 2.6
Huckabee 2.6
Paul 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3000001#msg3000001

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1272568#msg1272568

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[Mr. Morden]

Big surge for Trump, who is now alone in second place in the GOP nomination market.

Democrats
Clinton 70.4
Sanders 13.4
Biden 12.8

Republicans
Bush 36.9
Trump 17.4
Rubio 14.9
Walker 13.4
Kasich 6.5
Cruz 5.3
Carson 4.0
Fiorina 4.0
Huckabee 3.4
Christie 2.6
Paul 2.6

Winning Individual
Clinton 44.8
Bush 19.0
Biden 7.2
Trump 6.2
Rubio 6.0
Sanders 5.8
Walker 4.3
Kasich 2.8

[Mr. Morden]

Biden now in 2nd place on the Dem. side.  Rubio retakes 2nd place on the GOP side.

Democrats
Clinton 72.5
Biden 14.1
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 38.5
Rubio 14.9
Trump 14.5
Walker 12.5
Kasich 6.5
Cruz 4.3
Carson 4.0
Huckabee 4.0
Fiorina 3.8
Christie 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3003588#msg3003588

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1273885#msg1273885

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden surge continues, as does Walker crash…

Democrats
Clinton 71.9
Biden 15.4
Sanders 12.8

Republicans
Bush 38.2
Rubio 15.4
Trump 14.5
Walker 10.7
Kasich 7.0
Huckabee 5.0
Cruz 4.5
Carson 4.0
Fiorina 4.0
Paul 3.1

Winning Individual
Clinton 44.1
Bush 19.3
Biden 8.1
Trump 6.5
Sanders 6.2
Rubio 6.0
Walker 3.8
Kasich 3.3
Huckabee 2.6

[Mr. Morden]

Sanders back in second place.

Democrats
Clinton 70.4
Sanders 13.4
Biden 12.8
O’Malley 2.5

Republicans
Bush 39.1
Rubio 15.4
Trump 14.5
Walker 10.5
Kasich 7.2
Carson 5.0
Cruz 3.6
Huckabee 3.4
Fiorina 2.6
Paul 2.6
Christie 2.4

Four years ago at about this time:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3009958#msg3009958

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1279869#msg1279869

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[Mr. Morden]

Biden and Sanders now tied. Trump back in 2nd place on the GOP side.  Walker down to 10.  Big Fiorina rebound.

Up: Clinton, Trump, Fiorina
Down: Bush, Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 71.9
Biden 13.1
Sanders 13.1

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Trump 16.3
Rubio 13.4
Walker 10.0
Kasich 7.8
Fiorina 6.5
Carson 5.8
Cruz 4.2
Huckabee 4.2
Paul 3.4

Winning individual
Clinton 43.3
Bush 18.6
Trump 7.5
Biden 6.8
Rubio 5.8
Sanders 5.8
Walker 3.7
Kasich 3.3
Carson 2.2
Huckabee 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

Walker below 10.  Carson has more than doubled in the past two weeks…

Up: Rubio
Down: Bush

Democrats
Clinton 72.5
Biden 13.1
Sanders 12.8

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Trump 15.4
Rubio 14.9
Walker 9.1
Kasich 7.5
Carson 6.5
Fiorina 6.5
Cruz 4.2
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 3.3

Winning individual
Clinton 43.7
Bush 18.3
Trump 7.8
Biden 7.0
Sanders 6.4
Rubio 5.8
Fiorina 4.0
Walker 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Walker below 10.  Carson has more than doubled in the past two weeks…

Up: Rubio
Down: Bush

Democrats
Clinton 72.5
Biden 13.1
Sanders 12.8

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Trump 15.4
Rubio 14.9
Walker 9.1
Kasich 7.5
Carson 6.5
Fiorina 6.5
Cruz 4.2
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 3.3

Winning individual
Clinton 43.7
Bush 18.3
Trump 7.8
Biden 7.0
Sanders 6.4
Rubio 5.8
Fiorina 4.0
Walker 4.0

Apparently dudeabides runs Betfair these days.

Bush peaked at 45 on August 5th.  Since then, he’s come down to the 35-40 range, but he hasn’t been below 35 since June.

All of the other betting sites agree.  On some of them, he’s still up at ~40.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson-mentum continues: He’s now up to 5th place.  May well soon pass Walker for fourth, given the rate at which he’s climbing.  Rubio's back in second.  Clinton now at roughly the same share price she was at on Intrade eight years ago.

Up: Biden, Sanders, Bush, Carson
Down: Clinton

Democrats
Clinton 69.4
Biden 16.3
Sanders 15.4

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 15.8
Trump 14.9
Walker 9.1
Carson 8.1
Kasich 7.0
Fiorina 6.0
Huckabee 4.2
Cruz 3.8
Paul 3.1

Four years ago today on Intrade was the day that Romney retook the #1 spot from Perry:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3016211#msg3016211

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1287219#msg1287219

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[Mr. Morden]

Clinton down to 68, so she’s now (slightly) below her share price on Intrade 8 years ago.  On the GOP side, Carson moves into a tie with Walker for fourth place.

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Sanders 15.4
Biden 14.9
O’Malley 1.6

Republicans
Bush 36.1
Rubio 15.8
Trump 15.4
Carson 8.1
Walker 8.1
Kasich 7.0
Fiorina 6.4
Cruz 3.8
Huckabee 3.4
Paul 2.4

Winning Individual
Clinton 39.7
Bush 18.6
Biden 8.8
Trump 8.4
Sanders 6.8
Rubio 6.0
Kasich 3.4
Walker 3.3
Carson 2.6
Fiorina 2.1

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder what would Biden's share price look like if he announced today that he was running.

[Mr. Morden]

The New York Times story on Kerry has generated some betting action on him.  Though he doesn’t have a market on Betfair, I list the Betway share price for him.

Meanwhile, I guess brokered convention dreams are causing betters to imagine a Romney nomination on the GOP side.

Up: Bush, Walker, Kasich
Down: Fiorina

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 14.5
Sanders 14.5
Kerry 2.0 (Betway)
O’Malley 1.6

Republicans
Bush 37.7
Rubio 15.8
Trump 15.4
Walker 9.5
Kasich 8.4
Carson 7.5
Fiorina 5.4
Cruz 3.6
Huckabee 3.4
Romney 3.3

Four years ago at roughly this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3019107#msg3019107

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1287778#msg1287778

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[Mr. Morden]

Up: Biden, Fiorina, Huckabee
Down: Bush, Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Biden 17.4
Sanders 15.4

Republicans
Bush 36.1
Rubio 15.4
Trump 14.9
Walker 9.1
Carson 7.2
Kasich 7.2
Fiorina 6.2
Huckabee 4.2
Cruz 4.0
Christie 2.2
Paul 2.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3020686#msg3020686

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1291903#msg1291903

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[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update: Carson on fire, now over 10.0 and up to fourth place.

Up: Sanders, Trump, Carson
Down: Biden

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Sanders 16.8
Biden 16.3

Republicans
Bush 35.8
Trump 16.3
Rubio 14.9
Carson 11.1
Walker 9.5
Kasich 6.9
Fiorina 5.5
Huckabee 4.2
Cruz 4.0
Romney 2.2

Winning Individual
Clinton 40.3
Bush 16.8
Biden 8.4
Sanders 8.1
Trump 8.1
Rubio 5.8
Walker 3.4
Kasich 3.3
Carson 3.1
Fiorina 1.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3024430#msg3024430

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