latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio lost his second place standing several months ago during Romney-mentum, which was then replaced by Walker-mentum.  He's now regained second place (just barely).  Also, Christie's at an all-time low, having had quite an epic collapse.  He was above 10 as recently as December.

Up: Rubio
Down: Paul, Huckabee

Bush 33.9
Rubio 20.4
Walker 20.0
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.8
Cruz 5.3
Perry 3.4
Carson 2.8
Christie 2.1
Fiorina 2.1
Pence 2.1

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.4
Pawlenty 15.7
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 8.4
Trump 7.0
Bachmann 6.7
Palin 5.6
Huntsman 5.1
Barbour 3.4
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.0
Ryan 2.0
Johnson 1.7
Christie 1.2

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair *still* doesn't have a market listed for Kasich, but he is listed on other sites, with Totesport the latest site to offer a new share price for him.  So I'll list their Kasich price alongside all the Betfair prices for everyone else…

Up: Rubio, Fiorina
Down: Christie, Perry

Bush 33.9
Rubio 22.6
Walker 20.4
Paul 9.5
Huckabee 7.5
Cruz 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Carson 3.3
Fiorina 3.3
Pence 2.1
Ryan 1.9
Trump 1.8
Perry 1.4
Jindal 1.2
Martinez 1.2
Christie 1.1
Romney 1.1

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 23.8
Pawlenty 17.5
Daniels 13.2
Huntsman 10.0
Huckabee 8.9
Bachmann 6.0
Trump 5.2
Palin 5.1
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.9
Cain 2.0
Christie 1.4
Ryan 1.2
Johnson 0.8
Giuliani 0.7
Santorum 0.6

Those were the share prices on Intrade just after the first Republican debate.  Yes, back in 2011, we had a Republican presidential debate on May 5th.

[Mr. Morden]

Lots of volatility recently...and Walker back in 2nd place.

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Biden 10.5
Warren 7.0
Sanders 6.8

Up: Bush, Walker, Christie, Perry
Down: Rubio, Cruz

Republicans
Bush 39.4
Walker 22.2
Rubio 21.2
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.2
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Christie 3.6
Cruz 3.4
Carson 3.3
Perry 3.3
Fiorina 2.5
Ryan 1.9
Pence 1.8
Trump 1.5
Jindal 1.2
Martinez 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 25.1
Pawlenty 15.3
Huntsman 12.8
Daniels 10.5
Palin 5.6
Gingrich 4.3
Bachmann 4.0
Trump 3.8
Cain 3.7
Paul 3.2
Christie 2.6
Huckabee 2.5
Ryan 1.0
Giuliani 0.8

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 50.7
Obama 28.0
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.7
Richardson 2.1
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Bayh 0.1

Republicans
McCain 29.5
Giuliani 28.8
Romney 17.6
Thompson 14.2
Hagel 3.3
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.2
Rice 1.1
Brownback 0.5
Paul 0.5
T. Thompson
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton over 80.  Bush loses all of his recent gains.

Democrats
Clinton 82.0
Warren 6.5
Biden 5.8
Sanders 5.5
O'Malley 5.0

Up: Cruz
Down: Bush

Republicans
Bush 33.4
Walker 22.2
Rubio 21.2
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.0
Cruz 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Carson 3.3
Perry 3.3
Christie 3.1
Fiorina 2.5

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 26.0
Pawlenty 18.4
Huntsman 12.0
Daniels 10.7
Cain 6.0
Palin 5.8
Bachmann 5.7
Perry 3.7
Christie 3.1
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.7
Johnson 1.0
Ryan 1.0
Giuliani 0.7
Santorum 0.7

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 51.2
Obama 28.4
Gore 9.8
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 28.1
McCain 23.4
Romney 20.0
Thompson 16.6
Gingrich 3.7
Hagel 2.6
Huckabee 2.6
Bloomberg 1.1
Rice 1.1
Paul 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Heading into Santorum's announcement, he's trailing non-candidates who've already said they're not running, like Pence and Romney.  But at least he's slightly ahead of where he was four years ago on Intrade!  Also, Rubio again retakes second place from Walker, and still no Kasich market on Betfair Exchange for some reason.  Most recently traded Kasich share from another market is from Paddy Power.

Bush 32.9
Rubio 20.8
Walker 20.0
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 6.8
Kasich 4.8 (Paddypower)
Carson 3.4
Cruz 3.4
Fiorina 3.3
Perry 2.9
Christie 2.8
Pence 1.8
Trump 1.5
Martinez 1.2
Jindal 1.1
Romney 1.1
Ryan 1.1
Santorum 1.0

Four years ago today on Intrade:

The race continues to be dominated by Mormons, women, blacks, Minnesotans, and combinations thereof.

GOP nomination

Romney 28.3
Pawlenty 21.0
Huntsman 16.0
Palin 8.9
Cain 5.7
Bachmann 5.5
Perry 4.3
Christie 2.1
Paul 2.1
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.2
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.4
J. Bush 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Still no Kasich market on Betfair Exchange, so going with latest transaction on Ladbrokes.

Democrats
Clinton 75.8
Biden 9.1
Warren 9.1
O'Malley 7.5

Up: Cruz
Down: Bush, Huckabee, Fiorina

Republicans
Bush 31.8
Rubio 20.8
Walker 20.8
Paul 8.4
Cruz 5.0
Huckabee 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Ladbrokes)
Carson 3.1
Christie 2.5
Perry 2.4
Fiorina 2.2

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP presidential nominee:

Romney 29.4
Pawlenty 19.4
Huntsman 15.5
Palin 5.7
Perry 5.7
Bachmann 5.5
Cain 4.5
Christie 3.1
Giuliani 2.1
Paul 1.9
Gingrich 1.8
Ryan 1.3
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 25.1
Gore 10.7
Edwards 7.2
Richardson 2.3
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 24.9
Giuliani 24.4
Romney 22.0
McCain 17.0
Paul 2.9
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 0.9
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Bloomberg 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

A bunch of non-Bush Republicans (but especially Rubio) are surging.

Democrats
Clinton 79.4
Sanders 9.5
Biden 8.1
O'Malley 7.2
Warren 7.0

Up: Rubio, Walker, Paul, Fiorina
Down: Cruz

Republicans
Bush 31.4
Rubio 26.0
Walker 22.2
Paul 10.5
Huckabee 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Ladbrokes)
Cruz 3.3
Fiorina 3.3
Carson 2.9
Christie 2.1
Perry 2.1

From roughly four years ago on Intrade:

Romney 29.4
Pawlenty 18.4
Perry 13.1
Huntsman 12.6
Palin 6.0
Bachmann 5.2
Cain 3.5
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 1.9
Gingrich 1.0
Ryan 1.0
Pataki 0.8
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

A buying spree on Rubio in the past couple of days puts him over 30, and nearly caught up to Bush.

Up: Bush, Rubio, Christie
Down: Walker, Fiorina

Bush 34.5
Rubio 33.9
Walker 19.0
Paul 10.0
Huckabee 4.8
Christie 3.6
Cruz 3.3
Kasich 3.2 (32Red)
Carson 2.9
Perry 2.9
Fiorina 2.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 31.8
Pawlenty 16.0
Perry 13.3
Huntsman 11.0
Bachmann 6.3
Palin 5.1
Cain 3.7
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.2
Gingrich 1.9
Giuliani 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Santorum 0.9
Pataki 0.8

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 49.3
Obama 29.0
Gore 11.3
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 1.8
Clark 0.6
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 30.0
Giuliani 28.5
Romney 19.3
McCain 9.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.6
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.8
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Bush and Rubio both surging.  Trump gets big announcement bump...

Democrats
Clinton 80.6
Sanders 10.0
O'Malley 7.4
Biden 6.4
Warren 6.0

Up: Bush, Rubio, Trump, Kasich, Graham, Jindal
Down: Walker, Paul

Republicans
Bush 36.1
Rubio 30.5
Walker 19.6
Paul 8.1
Trump 6.5
Kasich 5.3
Huckabee 4.8
Graham 4.2
Jindal 3.4
Cruz 3.3
Carson 2.9
Perry 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 33.7
Perry 14.0
Pawlenty 13.5
Huntsman 12.1
Bachmann 8.2
Palin 4.5
Cain 3.4
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 1.9
Gingrich 1.5
Ryan 1.5
Christie 1.4
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Those numbers add up to well over 100%.

Yeah, volume is still low…

[Mr. Morden]

That big Rubio bubble that had him over 30 fades...now back down to just below 25.

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 9.1
O'Malley 6.4
Biden 5.8
Warren 3.4

Republicans
Bush 35.0
Rubio 24.8
Walker 18.6
Paul 10.5
Huckabee 4.5
Carson 4.2
Trump 3.7
Perry 3.4
Christie 3.3
Cruz 3.3
Fiorina 2.5
Kasich 1.8

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 32.1
Perry 19.9
Huntsman 10.6
Pawlenty 10.0
Bachmann 7.0
Palin 4.5
Paul 2.7
Cain 2.4
Christie 1.6
Giuliani 1.6
Gingrich 1.3
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 29.7
Gore 10.7
Edwards 5.0
Richardson 1.8
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.2

Republicans
Thompson 31.5
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 20.6
McCain 8.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.8
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

Yes, McCain at only 8.5.  Remember the Summer 2007 implosion of his campaign?

[Mr. Morden]

Trump up to 5th place.  Jindal at 3.1 on the eve of his announcement.

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 10.0
Biden 5.7
O'Malley 5.0

Republicans
Bush 34.7
Rubio 25.4
Walker 17.7
Paul 8.4
Trump 4.2
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 3.4
Jindal 3.1
Perry 3.1
Cruz 2.9

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nominee

Romney 36.1
Perry 17.0
Huntsman 9.4
Bachmann 9.1
Pawlenty 8.5
Palin 5.3
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.0
Gingrich 2.0
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.8
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.4

Dem. nominee

Obama 93.9
Clinton 3.0
Biden 1.6

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 49.5
Obama 30.6
Gore 9.3
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 32.5
Thompson 30.4
Romney 23.2
McCain 8.9
Paul 2.6
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich's on the move….back up to 5.0 and 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 83.3
Sanders 10.5
Biden 4.5
O'Malley 4.3

Republicans
Bush 35.5
Rubio 24.8
Walker 17.7
Paul 10.5
Kasich 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Carson 3.4
Trump 3.4
Christie 3.1
Cruz 2.9
Perry 2.6
Fiorina 2.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 33.9
Bachmann 13.8
Perry 13.0
Pawlenty 8.4
Huntsman 8.0
Palin 5.4
Paul 2.4
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.9
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Ryan 1.0
Pataki 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 33.3
Gore 8.5
Edwards 5.1
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 35.0 (way ahead of both his bid & offer for some reason)
Thompson 34.0
Romney 22.4
McCain 7.8
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 85.5
Sanders 13.1

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Rubio 23.1
Walker 17.4
Paul 8.1
Huckabee 5.0
Carson 4.3
Trump 4.3
Christie 4.2
Graham 3.8
Cruz 3.3
Kasich 2.6

Roughly four years ago at this point on Intrade:

Romney 34.0
Bachmann 15.6
Perry 15.4
Pawlenty 8.7
Palin 7.1
Huntsman 6.6
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.7
Cain 1.5
Ryan 1.1
McCotter 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Pataki 0.5

Roughly eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 45.7
Obama 34.6
Gore 9.2
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 2.3
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 36.0
Thompson 35.5
Romney 18.6
McCain 4.6
Paul 3.3
Gingrich 2.4
Huckabee 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Rice 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 37.5
Rubio 22.6
Walker 17.4
Paul 10.0
Huckabee 6.2
Trump 4.0
Christie 3.8
Carson 2.9
Graham 2.8
Kasich 2.8
Santorum 2.8
Cruz 2.1

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 33.9
Bachmann 15.0
Perry 15.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Huntsman 7.8
Palin 5.3
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Giuliani 1.6
Cain 1.4
Ryan 0.9
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Pataki 0.4

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 38.0
Gore 6.0
Edwards 5.5
Richardson 1.9
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
Thompson 35.5
Romney 18.0
McCain 4.0
Paul 2.6
Gingrich 2.3
Huckabee 1.4
Hagel 0.7
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Cheney 0.3
Rice 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Brownback 0.1

Yes, McCain was at 4.0 at this point 8 years ago, after having been at ~50 just after the 2006 midterms.  Remember that?

I feel sorry for those people who bought while McCain was at 50 in December 2006.




Nah, I really don't.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump surge:

Bush 38.2
Rubio 21.7
Walker 15.8
Paul 8.4
Trump 8.4
Huckabee 5.8
Christie 3.7
Carson 3.4
Graham 2.8
Santorum 2.8
Kasich 2.6
Cruz 2.1

Roughly four years ago at this point on Intrade:

Romney 34.6
Perry 18.2
Bachmann 13.3
Huntsman 8.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Palin 6.1
Paul 2.1
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Cain 1.4
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.5

Roughly eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 44.1
Obama 38.0
Gore 6.3
Edwards 5.7
Richardson 1.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 39.0
Thompson 33.9
Romney 16.4
McCain 5.0
Paul 2.8
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.7
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Cheney 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.1
Hunter 0.1
Brownback 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Bush breaks 40…

Dems

Clinton 84.0
Sanders 13.4

GOP

Bush 40.7
Rubio 20.4
Walker 16.3
Paul 8.4
Huckabee 5.5
Trump 5.3
Carson 3.4
Christie 3.3

[Mr. Morden]

Walker back up to second place, as Rubio drops....

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 12.2

Republicans
Bush 42.9
Walker 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 6.8
Trump 6.5
Huckabee 5.8
Carson 4.3
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 2.6

Roughly four years ago at this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2964703#msg2964703

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1248322#msg1248322

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio crash continues.  Has lost about half his value since June 24th.  Trump passes Paul for fourth place.

Bush 42.2
Walker 16.3
Rubio 12.8
Trump 7.8
Paul 6.8
Huckabee 5.5
Christie 4.2
Carson 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 3.1

Four years ago at roughly this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2973381#msg2973381

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1250941#msg1250941

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[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee passes Paul for 5th place.  Trump rapidly narrowing the gap on Rubio, and could soon be in third place.  Bush keeps gaining.

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 13.4

Republicans
Bush 43.3
Walker 15.8
Rubio 10.5
Trump 10.0
Huckabee 5.5
Paul 5.3
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.0
Carson 3.3
Kasich 3.1

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio collapse continues...
Up: Walker
Down: Rubio, Trump

Bush 43.3
Walker 18.0
Rubio 8.8
Trump 8.4
Huckabee 5.9
Paul 5.3
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.2
Kasich 3.4
Carson 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2976524#msg2976524

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1255735#msg1255735

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio was just above 25 as recently as June 24th.  Anyone who bought at that price has now lost almost 2/3rds of their money, were they to sell now.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Union Leader forum / Pre-Fox debate update.....
Trump passes Rubio for 3rd place, while Kasich moves up to 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 11.6
Biden 7.2
O'Malley 2.1

Republicans
Bush 45.0
Walker 19.3
Trump 10.0
Rubio 8.8
Kasich 5.3
Paul 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.8
Carson 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade....Perry and Romney were tied:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2979995#msg2979995

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1257958#msg1257958

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[Mr. Morden]

How funny does it seem after eight years the fact that Giuliani and Fred Thompson were the Republican frontrunners only five months before the Iowa caucuses.

They were the frontrunners in the betting markets (and national polls) though, IIRC, many of us on this forum were already moving onto the Romney train at that point, because of his strength in IA and NH polls.

But no one was counting on McCain at that point.  His campaign appeared to be dead.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update:

Rubio retakes 3rd place form Trump, and Fiorina quadruples her share price within a few hours.

Bush 44.4
Walker 20.0
Rubio 13.1
Trump 9.5
Huckabee 6.8
Fiorina 6.5
Cruz 5.3
Paul 5.3
Kasich 5.0
Christie 4.2
Carson 4.0

Four years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2980962#msg2980962

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1259202#msg1259202

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