Redistricting...Ireland?

[afleitch]

Just curious when glancing at pre Free State map of Irish constituencies; I've always wondered what they would look like today (70,000 or 55,000 quotas) if Ireland remained just another home nation? I imagine they would be self contained within counties where possible. How would they vote if there were just Tories, Labour the Lib Dems and a SNP/Plaid style pro independence party?

No offence to our Irish friends It just intrigues me. Anyone willing to help draw up a map?

[jimrtex]

Just curious when glancing at pre Free State map of Irish constituencies; I've always wondered what they would look like today (70,000 or 55,000 quotas) if Ireland remained just another home nation?

The districts in SI were oversized just like they were in NI.

[Verily]

I imagine pretty much everywhere outside of the cities (especially Dublin) would vote solidly for a pro-independence bloc (SF or some equivalent) much as they currently vote vehemently in support of FF, FG and, in some places, SF itself, all of which arose from the nationalist movement. The Lib Dems would probably do very well in Dublin itself, and Labour would also have a good showing there and strong showings in the smaller cities, Cork especially. Given that most of the conservative vote would be mopped up by the pro-independence party or parties, the Conservatives would probably only win a few seats, mostly in south Dublin.

[Јas]

Depends a great deal on what happened to the home rule/independence movements and even then I couldn't say with any sort of certainty.

Pre-1918 o/c the island was strongly Nationalist with the exception of NE Ulster and the Trinity seats. IIRC, after the foundation of the Irish Parliamentary Party in 1882, Westminster elections here were effectively very simple matters with 80 something IPP MPs returned and the remaining 20-ish (?) Conservatives returned from NE Ulster and Trinity College (until the Unionists came about in 1905 when they simply took over those seats and took the Tory whip).

Pre-1982, the Home Rule League was much the same as the IPP in terms of electoral success, but had more competition from the Liberals splitting some seats allowing more Tories in. The last election when no Irish party won (or really contested I suppose) seats in Westminster was 1868, when the Liberals won comfortably. Earlier than that... I don't really know much about in electoral terms.


As for today, if the only options on the ballot were Con; Lab; and LibDem... I'd imagine Labour would do well or at least be very competitive in North Dublin; Cork City; Wicklow; Kildare; maybe Louth.
I could see plenty of LibDem votes in South Dublin, but beyond that...hard to say.
Conservatives...(assuming Nationalism not an issue) should do well in the North-West [Donegal; Cavan; Monaghan; Mayo; Leitrim...]

It's very hard to speculate. Somethings I don't really know...historically which party would do best in appealing to the rural vote - particularly small farmers and agri-labourers; how the country would react to abortion; and to involvement in another World War...

Throwing in a nationalist party and well, I can only judge on things like the previous returns for the various Nationalist parties pre-1922 (Sinn Féin; IPP; Home Rule League) which all dominated here.

It's very hard for me to imagine what Ireland would be like today without having gained independence 80 years ago; what the country would be like either as effectively devolved government - had the 3rd Home Rule Bill been implemented; or as simply just another part of the UK.

Anyhoo... population figures would be hidden around various parts of the CSO website, for example here are the current county populations; and here are the current constituency populations. I have no idea how many seats we'd have or how those additional votes would have affected the course of British and Irish history.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's very hard to speculate. Somethings I don't really know...historically which party would do best in appealing to the rural vote - particularly small farmers and agri-labourers;

Agricultural labourers mostly vote Labour and have done since the '20's (there are, o/c, a hell of a lot less of them now than used to be the case. In some areas there's a direct link between the post-war collapse of agricultural employment and big falls in the Labour vote).

In Welsh terms, I tend to associate small farmers with Plaid, but before then with the Liberals.

[Hash]

Interesting whatif, I'd be also interested in how a devolved government like those in Scotland and Wales would look like.

[Јas]

It's very hard to speculate. Somethings I don't really know...historically which party would do best in appealing to the rural vote - particularly small farmers and agri-labourers;

Agricultural labourers mostly vote Labour and have done since the '20's (there are, o/c, a hell of a lot less of them now than used to be the case. In some areas there's a direct link between the post-war collapse of agricultural employment and big falls in the Labour vote).

In which case, Labour would have been competitive nationwide at least until the 60's.

Though this obviously doesn't factor in what the effects on the Irish agricultural community would have been in the absence of the Economic War with Britain in the 30's and Irish inclusion in WWII.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Very interesting thread I've been reading over here whenever I have the time spare and able to use the internets.

I'll write a long post when I get back on the 30th - I already have plently of ideas.

But I could see South Dublin being a real three-way battleground tbh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something that may be worth adding here is a little note on the appeal of the Labour Party in North Wales before it started to collapse* in the 1970's; it was largely based around the idea of economic modernisation in order to protect the traditional culture in the area. Labour M.P's (and councillers) would tend to campaign on issues like rural electrification, industrial growth or housing, while also being in favour of devolution and strict restrictions on the sale of alcohol (quite a few were high up in the dominant (in this case Calvinist Methodist) church).

*Which happend for various reasons including global economic problems (which effectively killed dead the hopes of industrial growth and economic modernisation) and the construction of the Tryweryn dam (which the party locally was strongly opposed to, but suffered from anyway. Partly because of the way Plaid cynically exploited the issue, but I digress...). It has actually recovered somewhat from it's '80's nadir though.

[afleitch]

Electorates here...roughly. I had to make a mathematical judgment when looking at the 2006 census to identify the % under 18. (Basically 40% of the 15-19 age group) Two 'quotas' are next to them it. The first is the English/post devolution Scotland quota; around 70000. The second is a quota of 55000. I would expect Ireland to have a fully functioning parliament, hence the 70000 quota at Westminster, but like Scotland it could have a 55000 quota for the devolved govt.

Dublin City and County 938,500 - 13.4/17.1
--------------
Dublin City: 418,400 - 6.0/7.6
Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown: 153,300 - 2.2/2.8
Fingal: 180,700 - 2.6/3.3
South Dublin:186,100 - 2.7/3.4

If anyone has exact figures then please do share

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I have Dublin with 18 seats; Meath with 2 and a bit which will put into Louth. Kildare with 3. Waterford and Clare are major problems though.

[afleitch]

I have Dublin with 18 seats; Meath with 2 and a bit which will put into Louth. Kildare with 3. Waterford and Clare are major problems though.

I see the need to cross county boundaries. I would imagine province boundaries would not be crossed if avoidable and, from what I remember, Northern Ireland would loose 2 seats under a 70,000 quota. As for the rest of Ulster, I don't know how that would affect things.

Good question actually - should Ireland (North and Republic) be split or treated uniformly?

[Јas]

Good question actually - should Ireland (North and Republic) be split or treated uniformly?

You know, you're not the first to ask that question...

FWIW, I'd say that it depends on the historical angle you take. If you run with the idea that no form of devolution or independence ever happened, then I'd go with uniform treatment.

If one considers devolution/independence or some other historical take which involved a split of some kind, I'd treat the border there as more significant than a county or provincial boundary but not unbreakable.

[stalkinghorse]

The Third Home Rule Bill would have to have been pased for this to have any basis. Presumibly just before the outbreak of war, with slaughters like the Somme uniting the communities as Gallipolli did in Australia.

Northern Unionists would continue to vote Tory, i believe the IPP would have moved on block to join the liberals since their reason for being was gone.

A further 60-70 seats for the Liberals throughout the 20s would have delayed the rise of the Labour party, Asquith becoming PM in 23 with Labour support, rather then vice versa in real time line.

This would potentially cause a serious alteration in British history.

i cant see Labour winning any seats outside Dublin with the straight vote and the Catholic churches anti communist sentiment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A further 60-70 seats for the Liberals throughout the 20s would have delayed the rise of the Labour party

If those 60-70 seats had been in Great Britain, yes. Don't think it would have had much of an effect on Labour's electoral rise if those seats were all in Ireland though (I'm of the opinion that the events of 1923 were, by and large, irrelevant... at least as far as Labour is concerned).

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I would have thought an easier (and one actually grounded in some truth; not that smears tend to be all that truthfull, so perhaps that's by-the-by) smear against Labour would have involved making much of the tendency of the party (at the time) to be dominated by people who's religious views were largely found on the more evangelical side of Protestantism.

O/c even this early there were some constituencies in Britain (in Leeds and Manchester. Maybe some other cities as well (Glasgow?) but I'm not sure) in which local Labour parties had good relations with the Catholic Church.

[afleitch]

Maybe some other cities as well (Glasgow?) but I'm not sure) in which local Labour parties had good relations with the Catholic Church.

Glasgow Catholics (Irish and later Italian and Lithuanian) had, as expected, a Liberal allegiance before WWI. Labour's commitment to Catholic schools within the state system pretty much brought them the Catholic vote. That lone issue still motivates Catholic voters in west central Scotland today - though its more about the schools high relative educational performance and 'ethos' compared to non-denominational than it is about religion.

Having said that it has creeped back in - Muslims are now the majority in some Catholic school catchment areas and schools (usually a deliberate choice over the past 20-30 years or so) and there have been calls for them to become Muslim state schools. This wasn't really perceived as a problem until it was admitted (by an SNP councillor IIRC) that specific schools had been 'targeted' intentionally to tip the numbers in their favour. It cumulated in an organised disruption/walkout during school mass with Muslim parents taking their children outside to join with vocal Muslim community activists. The parish priest complained; they backed down and it has been relatively calm ever since.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I've been using the formula that 1 HoC seat = 2 and a half or 3 Dail Seats. A Dail seat is roughly per 20,000. Ireland would still be over-represented like Scotland and Wales even with Home Rule.

I'll post more when I get back from the UK (I'm now Cumbria.. Yay! And I'm still on the internets some times as I need to check up on accomodation arrangements on Uni and e-mails from home) but I suspect that in this alternative history Ireland has two nationalist parties - One a descendant from the IPP (who would be allied with Liberals\Lib Dems) and another more radical, populist and Catholic one which would come into fruition during the great depression. Apart from these two, the tories would take the Unionist seats and do well in South Dublin. Labour would struggle especially outside Dublin and Cork - quite similiar to the problems of the NDP in Quebec actually...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(I'm now Cumbria.. Yay!

Whereabouts?

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This reminds me; it would be interesting to see how what would have been Northern Ireland would have developed politically in absense of partition and perpetual Unionist Party rule.

It might be worth mentioning that in the 1962 Stormont elections the NILP took as high a share of the vote province-wide as 25% (with the total Socialist vote being around 31% or so).
And o/c not everyone in the Unionist Party was right-wing in a conventional sense; those representing working class Belfast seats (the ones that the NILP or assorted Catholic Socialists didn't win) tended not to be and you have to wonder who their voters would have voted for in a more "normal" political situation.

Then o/c you have the Fundamentalist voters in rural Protestant areas. Why would they stick with the Tories in this scenario? After all, they eventually broke with the UUP at the start of the Troubles (after essentially threatening to do so for years).

[Јas]

The Third Home Rule Bill would have to have been pased for this to have any basis. Presumibly just before the outbreak of war, with slaughters like the Somme uniting the communities as Gallipolli did in Australia.

In which case, we get but what was it 40-something MPs in Westminster instead of 100+, and still partition is a distinct possibility.

Northern Unionists would continue to vote Tory, i believe the IPP would have moved on block to join the liberals since their reason for being was gone.

A further 60-70 seats for the Liberals throughout the 20s would have delayed the rise of the Labour party, Asquith becoming PM in 23 with Labour support, rather then vice versa in real time line.

This would potentially cause a serious alteration in British history.

i cant see Labour winning any seats outside Dublin with the straight vote and the Catholic churches anti communist sentiment.

Very hard to see any scenario whereby no Irish Party, such as Sinn Féin, don't continue to run and do very well.

I'd agree that there would be very serious consequences for British history - though what the ramifications would be

As to whether the Liberals or Labour would gain, one unusual but particularly interesting place to examine in this regard is the seat of Liverpool Scotland which returned TP O'Connor as an Irish Nationalist from 1885 right through to 1929 when he dies. Labour took and held that seat quite easily. Across the sea and all but still interesting nonetheless.

Welcome to the forum, btw!

[Јas]

This reminds me; it would be interesting to see how what would have been Northern Ireland would have developed politically in absense of partition and perpetual Unionist Party rule.

Without partition but with a unified devolved governement here within the UK - very, very hard to say. The key factor may be how strong the moves in the rest of the island would have been to seek full independence, I'd suggest.

If we had partition still, but with the South remaining in the UK, I'd imagine it would have been much more difficult for the British government to get away with turning a blind eye to the same extent as they did - that's assuming that the Unionists still tried to create their own little fiefdom to the same extent. Whatever the partisan make-up of the Southern bloc in Westminster, their would have to have been a fairly united and considerable pressure on any London administration to get involved much earlier than they did.

It might be worth mentioning that in the 1962 Stormont elections the NILP took as high a share of the vote province-wide as 25% (with the total Socialist vote being around 31% or so).
And o/c not everyone in the Unionist Party was right-wing in a conventional sense; those representing working class Belfast seats (the ones that the NILP or assorted Catholic Socialists didn't win) tended not to be and you have to wonder who their voters would have voted for in a more "normal" political situation.

If a normal UK system is applied, then Belfast and Derry would almost certainly be strongly Labour (South Belfast might be a 3-way marginal actually, I'd suggest the LibDems might have an edge there). Beyond that, I'd speculate that East of the Bann, the Conservatives would pick up most of the rest, while I'd be much less sure what would happen west of the Bann in Fermanagh; Tyrone; Co. Derry, etc.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I was in Keswick when I first posted that, now Carlisle. Glasgah tomorrow.

Under this scenario I suppose the Easter Rising would have to not happen somehow and thus Sinn Fein would be yet another forgetten nationalist party which would disband upon the death of it's relatively obscure leader Arthur Griffith in 1922. Or perhaps he would be replaced by the similiarly obscure William T. Cosgrave.. it wouldn't matter anyway, SF never winning anything outside Dublin Corporation seats and the name "Sinn Fein" would just fade away.

In my scenario btw, I have the politics of both north and south remaining somewhat together. Even though I'm imagining two seperate parliaments (as put under the Goverment of Ireland Act (1920)).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was in Keswick when I first posted that,

Ah, I know Keswick. Nice town (if a little touristy in parts), strange politics.

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I know Carlisle as well. I quite like it, though some don't. Nothing even slightly odd about its politics though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The local Conservative club is outside my hostel as a matter of fact, it seems to be sponsored by some bitter or others (are all political party clubs in the UK sponspored by Alcohol.. It was like that in Lincoln too iirc.)

Carlisle is nice but dead after six o'clock. The rest of Cumbria.. not a fan now, the English tourist board does a very good show of making it into a chocolate-boxy view of England. And too many BLOODY TOURISTS!!11.. (And I'm not one for scenery either... what's so strange about Keswick politics btw?)

[minionofmidas]

The local Conservative club is outside my hostel as a matter of fact, it seems to be sponsored by some bitter or others (are all political party clubs in the UK sponspored by Alcohol.. It was like that in Lincoln too iirc.)

Carlisle is nice but dead after six o'clock.

Liverpool is dead after six o'clock. The shopping area, anyways.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The local Conservative club is outside my hostel as a matter of fact, it seems to be sponsored by some bitter or others (are all political party clubs in the UK sponspored by Alcohol.. It was like that in Lincoln too iirc.)

Labour Clubs, Conservative Clubs and so on don't usually have all that much to do with the political parties themselves, at least not directly.
One old joke is that more people in South Wales drink in Conservative Clubs than vote Tory.

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It's (usually) evenly divided between the three main parties to an absurd extent (controlling for personal votes anyway). They've even given up running candidates against each other at district and town level.