Redistricting...Ireland?

[afleitch]

Just curious when glancing at pre Free State map of Irish constituencies; I've always wondered what they would look like today (70,000 or 55,000 quotas) if Ireland remained just another home nation? I imagine they would be self contained within counties where possible. How would they vote if there were just Tories, Labour the Lib Dems and a SNP/Plaid style pro independence party?

No offence to our Irish friends It just intrigues me. Anyone willing to help draw up a map?

[afleitch]

Electorates here...roughly. I had to make a mathematical judgment when looking at the 2006 census to identify the % under 18. (Basically 40% of the 15-19 age group) Two 'quotas' are next to them it. The first is the English/post devolution Scotland quota; around 70000. The second is a quota of 55000. I would expect Ireland to have a fully functioning parliament, hence the 70000 quota at Westminster, but like Scotland it could have a 55000 quota for the devolved govt.

Dublin City and County 938,500 - 13.4/17.1
--------------
Dublin City: 418,400 - 6.0/7.6
Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown: 153,300 - 2.2/2.8
Fingal: 180,700 - 2.6/3.3
South Dublin:186,100 - 2.7/3.4

If anyone has exact figures then please do share

[afleitch]

I have Dublin with 18 seats; Meath with 2 and a bit which will put into Louth. Kildare with 3. Waterford and Clare are major problems though.

I see the need to cross county boundaries. I would imagine province boundaries would not be crossed if avoidable and, from what I remember, Northern Ireland would loose 2 seats under a 70,000 quota. As for the rest of Ulster, I don't know how that would affect things.

Good question actually - should Ireland (North and Republic) be split or treated uniformly?

[afleitch]

Maybe some other cities as well (Glasgow?) but I'm not sure) in which local Labour parties had good relations with the Catholic Church.

Glasgow Catholics (Irish and later Italian and Lithuanian) had, as expected, a Liberal allegiance before WWI. Labour's commitment to Catholic schools within the state system pretty much brought them the Catholic vote. That lone issue still motivates Catholic voters in west central Scotland today - though its more about the schools high relative educational performance and 'ethos' compared to non-denominational than it is about religion.

Having said that it has creeped back in - Muslims are now the majority in some Catholic school catchment areas and schools (usually a deliberate choice over the past 20-30 years or so) and there have been calls for them to become Muslim state schools. This wasn't really perceived as a problem until it was admitted (by an SNP councillor IIRC) that specific schools had been 'targeted' intentionally to tip the numbers in their favour. It cumulated in an organised disruption/walkout during school mass with Muslim parents taking their children outside to join with vocal Muslim community activists. The parish priest complained; they backed down and it has been relatively calm ever since.

[afleitch]

Oh my. What have a I started! Seriously - Gully, Al, impressive stuff.

[afleitch]

Drew up a quick map here. Completed areas in grey

Followed your directions as close as I could Gully, using rivers and contours to define some boundaries (Liffey for part of the boundary between CW Kildare and S Kildare for example)



And as for South Kildare I could bet my house (if I owned one) that someone would stand for the 'Monasterevan Loony Party'

[afleitch]

No worries - ill post the blank county map (UK constituencies in Northern Ireland) in the gallery

[afleitch]

Ere we go



Spot the missing pixel

[afleitch]

Kevin, its not a constituency map; an attempt at that was made before. It's simply a blank map for people to use with the Irish counties, except in Northern Ireland with the current UK constituencies.

[afleitch]

Slight detour here

How would a nationalistic, but devolved Ireland  have an effect on Scottish nationalism? First off, Scotland would have had it's own parliament decades before we actually did and would likely be established at around the same time as the Irish parliament had the Home Rule Bill been successful. Modern nationalism, which had it's roots in academic circles in the 30's but didn't achieve any success until after the war and beyond, would have become a stronger political force in Scotland. I can imagine two nationalist parties operating in Scotland on either side of the left/right economic divide. Again, has the Home Rule Bill passed in say 1914, before the war, this would have had a significant effect on the growth of the Labour Party and the transferance of allegiance from the Liberals to Labour on Clydeside.

Scotland in the 1930's had far more diversity in local politics than national politics. The Conservatives were not a force (which would ultimately seal their downfall in the 60's) operating instead as bands of Moderates, Progressives and Independents from landowners, to businessmen to 'ladies of leisure.' Unfortunately Scotland also had a very nasty sectarian streak. The Church of Scotland in the 30's actively called for the repatriation of Irish, Italian and Lithuanian Catholics. Various Protestant 'action groups' and other local bodies established in Glasgow and Edinburgh and made small but significant inroads into local politics. Some were bordering on the violent, paramilitary and proto-fascist. While local poltics offered tham an outlet, had a Scottish Assembly existed as a 'middle tier' it is likely that at least one, most likely in Edinburgh would be elected. There was also, in the late 30's (but cut short by the war) a growing 'clerical' element within Italian Catholics and Irish Catholics in some areas of Glasgow that may have produced a counter-political movement given time. The possibility of both a  Catholic and a Protestant nationalist (as opposed to a unionist) party developing had an Assembly existed is quite possible. Left to it's own devices so to speak, Scotland could have become more fragmented along sectarian lines.

[afleitch]

(Applause)

Bloody well put together. You put in alot of time, effort and analysis I'll complete the map too if I can.