2013 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Seriously? Where did you see that?

Voting was brisk in my low-turnoutish precinct at noon (before the usual rush hour, but not so very long before) - I actually had to wait a few seconds.

[minionofmidas]

Brüderle wants "at least the second vote"?

[Tender Branson]

Seriously? Where did you see that?

Voting was brisk in my low-turnoutish precinct at noon (before the usual rush hour, but not so very long before) - I actually had to wait a few seconds.

From the Landeswahlleiter pages and news reports.

It varies though: Turnout is up in the Eastern states, plus more significantly in Hamburg.

Turnout is lagging in Bavaria though so far and similar to 2009 in Lower Saxony.

No information from other big population states like NRW or BW so far.

[minionofmidas]

CDU/CSU 38.8% SPD 26% GRN 9.8% LINKE 9.1% FDP 6.3% AfD 3.7% Pirates 2.5%

was the average of some tipping competition... exchange the Green and Left figures and it looks feasible to me.

(All I'd found was something from MDR saying that turnout in the East is so far higher than last time.)

[minionofmidas]

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU 38.8% SPD 26% GRN 9.8% LINKE 9.1% FDP 6.3% AfD 3.7% Pirates 2.5%

was the average of some tipping competition... exchange the Green and Left figures and it looks feasible to me.

(All I'd found was something from MDR saying that turnout in the East is so far higher than last time.)

As long as we don't get any official info from NRW, BAY, BW and HE - it's all just guessing.

Just because turnout is up in the (less populated) East, it doesn't really mean it's up overall.

[Tender Branson]

A likely reason why Bayern turnout is lagging:



Weather here and in Bayern is pretty good today, at least here there are hardly any clouds, while in the other German regions it's more cloudy.

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt had (in a sample of precincts) 23.9% til 12, which is down 0.2 on 2009.

And yes, the sun is shining here. and it's over 20 degrees.

[Tender Branson]

Better map:

[Tender Branson]

Maybe some CDU/CSU voters in the South remain home ...

[Tender Branson]

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The federal election agency will release 2pm turnout from "selected precincts" by 3.30pm

[Franknburger]

Went to a birthday party in Hamburg last night, where, of course, the election was discussed as well. A few, completely subjective takeaways:
1. The "energy grid" referendum is a hot issue in Hamburg, and should boost turnout. It is expected to go around 50-50, probably with the "No" vote slightly having the upper hand. It should lead quite a number of otherwise loyal SPD voters to defect to the Greens and the Linke.
2. Disappointment with the Green federal campaign and leadership is quite universal. However, after having contemplated other voting options for quite some time, traditional Green voters will finally come home (with the decision in many cases just made yesterday). Expect the Greens to overperform the polls by at least 1-2%.

So, here is my guess on the outcome:

CDU            35.5 (last-minute defection to AfD, FDP loan voting)
FDP              7.5 (get some 3% CDU loan votes)
CDU & FDP  43.0

SPD            24.9
Greens        11.3  (disaffected voters coming home at the expense of SPD and Pirates)
Linke            9.5
Subtotal      45.7

AfD              5.2
Pirates         1.8
NPD, REP     1.6
Others         3.7

P.S: Midas, there is one big mistake in the election guide you have posted: For the CSU, it needs to read " I drive a Benz BMW and hate Austrians on my motorway".

[minionofmidas]

2. Disappointment with the Green federal campaign and leadership is quite universal. However, after having contemplated other voting options for quite some time, traditional Green voters will finally come home (with the decision in many cases just made yesterday). Expect the Greens to overperform the polls by at least 1-2%.

That's me!

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Point taken. I didn't make it though. (It also should have read "Mutti" instead of "Angie".)

[minionofmidas]

Seriously? Where did you see that?

Voting was brisk in my low-turnoutish precinct at noon (before the usual rush hour, but not so very long before) - I actually had to wait a few seconds.

From the Landeswahlleiter pages and news reports.

It varies though: Turnout is up in the Eastern states, plus more significantly in Hamburg.

Turnout is lagging in Bavaria though so far and similar to 2009 in Lower Saxony.

No information from other big population states like NRW or BW so far.

NRW said to be up two points at 1pm.

[jaichind]

Any recommended links for results? This includes TV channels.

[minionofmidas]

0.9 points behind in Frankfurt at 2.

Any recommended links for results? This includes TV channels.

Depends what you want. "Results as they come in" is really only available at the constituency level, and only once the constituencies are wholly in - and then while available all over the net is probably best at bundeswahlleiter.de (unless you want it to be in flashy graphs. Though I cannot imagine that any internet user wants that.) The big serious tv channels are zdf.de and ard.de.
Really, if the election outcome is not really in doubt based on the 6pm prognosis, one of those at 6 (local time) and the federal results site somewhere about midnight will be quite enough. If it's close... we'll be trying to find detailed results at numerous city and district websites to see how the precinct results are shaping up.
In which case, this thread may be the best place to watch results.

[Franknburger]

Seriously? Where did you see that?

Voting was brisk in my low-turnoutish precinct at noon (before the usual rush hour, but not so very long before) - I actually had to wait a few seconds.

From the Landeswahlleiter pages and news reports.

It varies though: Turnout is up in the Eastern states, plus more significantly in Hamburg.

Turnout is lagging in Bavaria though so far and similar to 2009 in Lower Saxony.

No information from other big population states like NRW or BW so far.

NRW said to be up two points at 1pm.

• Hamburg up 3.6% (!) at 11:00
• Berlin up 0.3% at 12:00
• Schleswig-Holstein down 1.7% at 11:00
• No cumulated figures for Baden-Würtemberg yet, but city-level data suggests a slight decline so far. However, a record 23.3%, 4% more than in 2009, have already voted by mail in the state.
• The city of Mainz reports 2.6% increase at 14:00. Remember - the city's central railway station had to be closed during summer for some weeks for shortage of network supervisory staff
• Munich and Nuremberg are each down by some 2% (12:00)
• Sachsen-Anhalt up 2.5% at 12:00
• Saxony up 3.3% at 12:00, participation especially strong in Dresden and Leipzig

Overall, not a good sign for CDU/CSU, and quite encouraging for the Greens (Hamburg, Berlin, Dresden, Leipzig are all Green strongholds). Might also indicate some AfD appeal to people that have traditionally abstained from voting.

[Franknburger]

According to a statement by the Federal Election Commissioner (Bundeswahlleiter), at 14:00, 41.4% of eligible voters had voted in person (+5.3 % compared to 2009). Vote-by-mail is not considered in the above figures, but seems to have gone up as well.

[minionofmidas]

Huh. That'd be quite the increase.

That said, modelling turnout / selecting the right precincts to ask seems to be harder than getting the party percentages right in exit polls. Early turnout estimates, even after six, are not infrequently several percentage points off (but were spot on in Bavaria last week.)

Down 1.6 in Frankfurt at 4pm, up 0.2 in Cologne.

[Franknburger]

Just voted together with our daughter (my wife is having an excursion today and already voted in the morning). Participation here is pretty high, more than 300 out of 480 registered voters have already voted.

[Franknburger]

Just for fun: I checked out a few blogs to get an idea on vote participation and general mood, and came upon this nice story on schwatzgelb.de (no, it is not what you would think about first):

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"[Our election precinct was so crowded that] we even had to designate election booths to voters in order to keep things going effectively. I messed it up a bit, and was almost removed from my supervisory duties:
For a short moment, everything was vacant, and an elder lady didn't know where to go. I said: 'Everything is free, but you should go for the Left.'  The assembled CDU leaders started to get mad on me, until I reminded them that I am presiding the local SPD chapter..."

[minionofmidas]

Do not take this seriously. But this is a rumour reported over there (the parties have a 'partial result' of the exit poll by now, so it's not necessarily an invention. Though, of course, your money should be on it being one.)

Union 41 #SPD 26 #FDP 4,8 #AFD 5 #Grüne 10 #Linke 9

[minionofmidas]

"Damn, I misvoted" - Steinbrück's last gaffe.

[Franknburger]

Some update on vote participation:
Saxony +1.9% (16:00)
Lower Saxony +1.7% (16:30)
Baden-Würtemberg +0.5 (14:00)
Schleswig-Holstein + 0.6 (14:00)

[minionofmidas]

That sounds realistic.