2013 Elections in Germany

[jaichind]

Still a chance for CDU/CSU government.  As I recall historically projections tends to get more friendly for CDU/CSU over time.

[Silent Hunter]

Either way, things have just gotten sehr interessant in the Bundesrepublik...

[jaichind]

Was out shopping this morning. So glad I pressured my wife to get back in time to watch this election.  This is going to be long but fun.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The FDP being eliminated would be quite a delightful silver lining...

[Silent Hunter]

And a warning for the LibDems...

[minionofmidas]

http://vis.uell.net/btw/13/atlas.html

Pretty nice 2009 results and some structural data (and once they come in, 2013 results) visualization.

[Tender Branson]

If the AfD voters already lied in the pre-election polls (3-4%), then I guess they also lied to the exit pollsters in a way that puts them at 5.1%

[Kevinstat]

Does Germany still have overhang seats?  If only the top four parties get in, it seems that could decide whether CDU/CSU has a majority (it could potentially pull them above or below 50%+1 seat perhaps).

[Tender Branson]

Atlas of the Federal Election Authority:

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/wahlatlas/start_wahlatlas.html

[Lief 🗽]

SPD, Greens and the Left should go for a hilariously unworkable bare majority coalition. It's not like they can fall much lower at this point.

[minionofmidas]

If the AfD voters already lied in the pre-election polls (3-4%), then I guess they also lied to the exit pollsters

It's not that people lie (though they also do that), it's that no pollster is actually capable of contacting a representative sample of the population - except in an exit poll, where you CAN get a representative sample of those who actually vote fairly easily.
Though a new party that doesn't simply take over the extant base of another but instead represents a new specific section of the electorate can be hard to model, and there's certainly no reason to believe one thing or the other regarding the AfD so far.
Note that 18:00 projections are always rounded to half percent points... except at 5.0%, where pollsters do release their hunch on whether it's above or below that.

[minionofmidas]

Does Germany still have overhang seats?  If only the top four parties get in, it seems that could decide whether CDU/CSU has a majority (it could potentially pull them above or below 50%+1 seat perhaps).

We now have complete equalization.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Is there any place to watch coverage in English?

[minionofmidas]

Is there some place to watch coverage in English?

Yes Don, this thread.

[Tender Branson]

Is there any place to watch coverage in English?

Yes:

http://mediacenter.dw.de/english/live/

[SPQR]

Here's hoping that FDP and AFD stay below 5%...doubt it though.

[Kevinstat]

Does Germany still have overhang seats?  If only the top four parties get in, it seems that could decide whether CDU/CSU has a majority (it could potentially pull them above or below 50%+1 seat perhaps).

We now have complete equalization.

Is the total number of seats flexible though?  That could make a difference as to whether the CDU/CSU has exactly half the seats or one more/less (or 1/2 seat more or less than half in the case of an odd number of seats).

What is the seat allocation method among parties making the threshold?

[RogueBeaver]

Greens say they want talks with Merkel.

[Silent Hunter]

DW now have CDU on 299; Grand Coalition only possible government.

[ZuWo]

Here's hoping that FDP and AFD stay below 5%...doubt it though.

If this happens Merkel has a real chance of winning an absolute majority of seats. If I were you I would hope the AfD gets in.

[Beezer]

SPD now below 26%.

[freek]

What is the seat allocation method among parties making the threshold?

Sainte-Laguë method

[Tender Branson]

Censursula von der Leyen giving an interview in English on DW.

[minionofmidas]

New ARD numbers have the CDU at 42.1, tied with redredgreen. AfD still at 4.9, FDP at 4.7.

[minionofmidas]

Greens say they want talks with Merkel.

Who said that?