2013 Elections in Germany

[Zanas]

New Brandenburg poll by Forsa for the MAZ:


State

36% [+3] SPD
24%  [-3] Left
22% [+2] CDU
  7% [+1] Greens
  3%  [-4] FDP
  2% [+2] Pirates
  6%  [-1] Others

What kind of coalition does that make ? Incumbent Red-red or previous Red-black ?

[Zanas]

It's back to 72-72 tie on ZDF. I don't quite get in which circumstances there are extra-seats allocated.

[Zanas]

Well that's reassuring...

[Zanas]

I wouldn't trust an electoral system where you elect a Parliament that can end up plus or minus 10 members depending on outcome...

[Zanas]

I love European elections sometimes.

[Zanas]

Yup. That's why we're flooded with Dutch students.

My sincere condolences...

[Zanas]

So I can see a situation a year and half  from now where SPD will be in every Lander government execpt Bavaria.  Quite an accomplishment. 

Quite an accomplishment indeed of having absolutely no political values, beliefs, agenda or anything... It's deeply pathetic if you ask me.

[Zanas]

So razor-thin upset defeats happen for the right as well once in a while!

Fixed there for ya.

[Zanas]

What kind of incentive could the SPD offer die Linke or the Greens, or even Pirate-ish guy, to withdraw from second round and endorse them instead ? Since I recall you telling the city council was in any case made up of members of every party in proportion of what they got ?

[Zanas]

Which would instantly give him -12 on this grid...

[Zanas]

The Left swings left

http://www.thelocal.de/politics/20130201-47703.html

In other news, they aren't aware than Berlin Wall fell yet.

You know it has been 94% in the US and even 99.25% in the UK during a previous crisis, aka World War 2. That seems like a totally reasonable measure to me.

[Zanas]

Actually, it's kind of more the other way around : SPD has moved so much to the right that they are way more comfortable working with CDU than with die Linke. But yes there are also frequentability issues for die Linke acused by history.

But it's SPD, not Linke, that refuses a Rot-Rot coalition more.

[Zanas]

Eww, that's Groß...

[Zanas]

Do you have some kind of litmus test for one of your candidates that'll help you choose in these 5 months ?

[Zanas]

The "Party of Reason" will most likely get results comparable to the Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany, the Party of Bible-abiding Christians, the Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany and many others. Funny names have been good to attract a handful of voters, but not more.

There are many potential protest parties competing, why should anyone vote for the PdV? Additionally it is not the only party competing for tea bag votes (cf. AfD).

Of course among these parties, the Marxist-Leninist one is not just a funny name for the sake of fun, it's at least historically relevant, how funny as you can find it now.

[Zanas]

Is it just me or this poll seems... late ? ^^

Anyway, French PS has a record low of 16% in recent years, Jospin in the first round of 2002, and the EP elections in 2009, and they were very very close to being topped by Greens in the latter. Granted, this was an EP election... But who knows ? So it seems it's their floor.

My guess is SPD can go as low as 19%, but I cannot see them fall behind the Greens federally. There is a DDR after all...

[Zanas]

Is AfD polling above the threshold already a thing in Germany ? Are they expected to poll even more ? Will they have a parabolic curve like the Pirates, and in that case, where on it do you think they will be come the election ?

[Zanas]

AfD doesn't seem to be getting much momentum federally after all...

[Zanas]

To a Parisian trotskyist, the fact that the Hessian section of the Fourth International is called the PSG is quite amusing...

[Zanas]

No, he's voting for My Little Pony in the Bundestag ! Way to go, Franknburger !

[Zanas]

You should translate it "Keep calm and vote for the Chancellor", otherwise you don't get the meme right.

[Zanas]

"Each family is different. And of special importance to us" (CDU - together successful).

Doesn't look like a very 'different' family to me.

It's different. The man cooks! How he dares not leaving all the household chores to his woman, as any traditionnal man?

Came here to post exactly that. \(^.^)/

[Zanas]

As if the German election couldn't get anymore depressing, FDP look set to get in alongside AfD, and the only party on the Left progressing is the party that least deserves to - and even then only to a point where they can't govern (unless you class propping up the Right as that).

Well it seems to me the Left has been gaining a bit also lately. Granted, it's not very much better than SPD by our standards, especially in the East, but I'll still take it.

[Zanas]

Grünen is a trainwreck in the end of this campaign. We now have signs that they could well end up 4th behind Linke, and who knows, if there are a high number of FDP loan votes like in Lower Saxony earlier this year and the Grünen are reduced to their core, we could see something like Linke 8.5%, FDP 7.5% and Grünen 7%, don't you think ?

[Zanas]

It's still depressing to see that inside the "left" the SPD has actually gained nearly 3 points, whereas the Greens, who are in my opinion the only ones to actually have true new progressive ideas at times, and the Linke, who are the only ones who come close to being somewhat "left-wing", both lost, 3 and 2 points respectively. Very depressing.

Also, on the Bundeswahlleiter site, the count with 254 out of 299 constituencies counted has die Linke at 7.9 and Grünen at 8.2, FDP at 4.8 and AfD at only 4.6. I guess the projections we see on TV take into account that the remaining constituencies lean a bit more Linke and AfD, is that it ?