Nevada: Long Gone?

[Non Swing Voter]

Republicans are really hopeful...

Nevada is like Virginia, it reached the tipping point (for Presidential elections)... on top of that, the fastest growing part of the state votes Democrat by huge margins, just like Virginia. 

Republicans can win Nevada... in a massive blowout.

[Non Swing Voter]

Nevada is already one of the least religious states (despite the Mormon presence) and the 6th most multicultural and seeing the fastest demographic change of probably any of the 50 states. I'm sure that Obama only did so (relatively) poorly there in 2012 because Nevada had by far the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Once the US economy in general - and the hardest hit states Nevada and Florida in particular - start to recover more profoundly from the mess - and there are already many signs of that, like property values increasing and stock markets soaring - I'm sure that both Nevada and Florida - but in particular Nevada - will take a heavy dive to the left. Democrats' potential is so much stronger in both of these two states.

I think the GOP vote also spiked a bit because of the Mormon presence.  The overall trend is horrible for Republicans there though.  I don't get why this is hard for our GOP friends to figure out.  If one part of the state is consistently voting 60-40 democratic, and that same part of the state is increasing as a share of the population then that state is going to trend democratic as well.  This really isn't hard.

[Non Swing Voter]

Nevada is already one of the least religious states (despite the Mormon presence) and the 6th most multicultural and seeing the fastest demographic change of probably any of the 50 states. I'm sure that Obama only did so (relatively) poorly there in 2012 because Nevada had by far the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Once the US economy in general - and the hardest hit states Nevada and Florida in particular - start to recover more profoundly from the mess - and there are already many signs of that, like property values increasing and stock markets soaring - I'm sure that both Nevada and Florida - but in particular Nevada - will take a heavy dive to the left. Democrats' potential is so much stronger in both of these two states.

I think the GOP vote also spiked a bit because of the Mormon presence.  The overall trend is horrible for Republicans there though.  I don't get why this is hard for our GOP friends to figure out.  If one part of the state is consistently voting 60-40 democratic, and that same part of the state is increasing as a share of the population then that state is going to trend democratic as well.  This really isn't hard.

Mormon presence is only in rural parts of the state and maybe a little bit in Clark County, besides that its really not religious. I understand what you're saying here, Clark County is 72% of the population and its the most democratic part of the state (going 56% for Obama, if I remember), and the population % is increasing, so that equals a democratic trend, however Clark County could vote more republican, thus trending republican. I think you assume too much that growth = more democratic vote, but that's not always the case and shouldn't be assumed as such. By the way, how much of a landslide do you think the republicans would have to get to win Nevada?

Your last point about growth =/= democratic vote per se is valid, but in this case growth DOES = more democratic vote because the growth is almost entirely from Hispanics and west coast transplants.  So it would take a political realignment for that growth to not be among democrats.

I honestly think Republicans would have to win the national popular vote by a 5 point margin to win Nevada and even then it would be really tight.  I also don't think Republicans will win the national popular vote for a while because the economy was pretty unfavorable to Obama when he ran for re-election and most of the country thought the country was on the wrong track and he still won by a fairly substantial margin by winning over his base groups (minorities + educated whites + other urban voters).  The Obama coalition is increasing as a share of the overall population and it's increasing in a bunch of swing states...

I therefore think there is a 90% chance Democrats win the White House in 2016 and a 95% chance they win Nevada in 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

Nevada is already one of the least religious states (despite the Mormon presence) and the 6th most multicultural and seeing the fastest demographic change of probably any of the 50 states. I'm sure that Obama only did so (relatively) poorly there in 2012 because Nevada had by far the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Once the US economy in general - and the hardest hit states Nevada and Florida in particular - start to recover more profoundly from the mess - and there are already many signs of that, like property values increasing and stock markets soaring - I'm sure that both Nevada and Florida - but in particular Nevada - will take a heavy dive to the left. Democrats' potential is so much stronger in both of these two states.

I think the GOP vote also spiked a bit because of the Mormon presence.  The overall trend is horrible for Republicans there though.  I don't get why this is hard for our GOP friends to figure out.  If one part of the state is consistently voting 60-40 democratic, and that same part of the state is increasing as a share of the population then that state is going to trend democratic as well.  This really isn't hard.

Mormon presence is only in rural parts of the state and maybe a little bit in Clark County, besides that its really not religious. I understand what you're saying here, Clark County is 72% of the population and its the most democratic part of the state (going 56% for Obama, if I remember), and the population % is increasing, so that equals a democratic trend, however Clark County could vote more republican, thus trending republican. I think you assume too much that growth = more democratic vote, but that's not always the case and shouldn't be assumed as such. By the way, how much of a landslide do you think the republicans would have to get to win Nevada?

Your last point about growth =/= democratic vote per se is valid, but in this case growth DOES = more democratic vote because the growth is almost entirely from Hispanics and west coast transplants.  So it would take a political realignment for that growth to not be among democrats.

I honestly think Republicans would have to win the national popular vote by a 5 point margin to win Nevada and even then it would be really tight.  I also don't think Republicans will win the national popular vote for a while because the economy was pretty unfavorable to Obama when he ran for re-election and most of the country thought the country was on the wrong track and he still won by a fairly substantial margin by winning over his base groups (minorities + educated whites + other urban voters).  The Obama coalition is increasing as a share of the overall population and it's increasing in a bunch of swing states...

I therefore think there is a 90% chance Democrats win the White House in 2016 and a 95% chance they win Nevada in 2016.

OK, the thing here is that your assuming all the positive democratic trends right now will always continue into the future and therefore democrats will always do good. It's a nice formula, and its comfortable and easy to assume, but what most democrats don't realize is that whites are moving in a republican direction, which seems unlikely to most democrats, but Hispanic voters are moving left, and that's extra emphasized and obvious. We assume that the current numbers right now will just stay the same or get better for democrats, and because population of those numbers and statistics are increasing, it can only mean better for democrats.

I usually try to be non-partisan and fair to both sides when it comes to election trends, but this has got me pessimistic lately. If your so confident about a democratic white house in 2016, when will republicans ever do good? Will they ever do good? Is their brand just dead? Or are you being too confident? Whats the point of having a two party system if one party is always better than the other?

Note: According the 2012 election, a republican would have to win by 3 points nationally to win Nevada, assuming it swings with the nation, but it never does. According the 2008 election, a republican would have to win by 5 points nationally to win Nevada. Your in the right ballpark, but its way to unpredictable, not to mention Nevada is an elastic state.

So you take issue with the fact that I assume certain trend lines but then you assume whites will continue to trend Republican... OK...

I disagree with the notion that Republicans will just continue doing better and better among whites as some kind of reaction to minorities voting Democrat.  What you guys fail to realize is that whites who vote Democrat are the most liberal and loyal part of the coalition.  Republicans don't even do that well among whites outside of the South.  Furthermore, there is a base of white voters that I do not think will vote Republican anytime soon regardless of trends... If you factor in Jewish voters, Gay voters, Atheists, Feminists, and Liberal whites, you probably get about 1/3 of the white population right there.  These people aren't going to start voting Republican.  Additionally, white voters are actually more liberal on certain issues than the general population... for instance, gay marriage.

Yes, I do think the Republican brand in its current form is dead... absolutely.  They cannot run on disenfranchising minority voters, not allowing gay marriage, and talking about legitimate rape and remain a viable party.  That formula saw its last breaths in 2000/2004 when Bush won and he barely won...

There is a reason why democrats have won the popular vote 5/6 times in the last 6 elections.

So think about what you just said... a Republican would have to win the popular vote by 3-5 points nationally to win Nevada (assuming the state doesn't trend at all)... now think about the fact that Republicans have only won the popular vote once in the last 6 elections and that was an incumbent who won by less than a 3 point margin...

[Non Swing Voter]

Nevada is already one of the least religious states (despite the Mormon presence) and the 6th most multicultural and seeing the fastest demographic change of probably any of the 50 states. I'm sure that Obama only did so (relatively) poorly there in 2012 because Nevada had by far the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Once the US economy in general - and the hardest hit states Nevada and Florida in particular - start to recover more profoundly from the mess - and there are already many signs of that, like property values increasing and stock markets soaring - I'm sure that both Nevada and Florida - but in particular Nevada - will take a heavy dive to the left. Democrats' potential is so much stronger in both of these two states.

I think the GOP vote also spiked a bit because of the Mormon presence.  The overall trend is horrible for Republicans there though.  I don't get why this is hard for our GOP friends to figure out.  If one part of the state is consistently voting 60-40 democratic, and that same part of the state is increasing as a share of the population then that state is going to trend democratic as well.  This really isn't hard.

Mormon presence is only in rural parts of the state and maybe a little bit in Clark County, besides that its really not religious. I understand what you're saying here, Clark County is 72% of the population and its the most democratic part of the state (going 56% for Obama, if I remember), and the population % is increasing, so that equals a democratic trend, however Clark County could vote more republican, thus trending republican. I think you assume too much that growth = more democratic vote, but that's not always the case and shouldn't be assumed as such. By the way, how much of a landslide do you think the republicans would have to get to win Nevada?

Your last point about growth =/= democratic vote per se is valid, but in this case growth DOES = more democratic vote because the growth is almost entirely from Hispanics and west coast transplants.  So it would take a political realignment for that growth to not be among democrats.

I honestly think Republicans would have to win the national popular vote by a 5 point margin to win Nevada and even then it would be really tight.  I also don't think Republicans will win the national popular vote for a while because the economy was pretty unfavorable to Obama when he ran for re-election and most of the country thought the country was on the wrong track and he still won by a fairly substantial margin by winning over his base groups (minorities + educated whites + other urban voters).  The Obama coalition is increasing as a share of the overall population and it's increasing in a bunch of swing states...

I therefore think there is a 90% chance Democrats win the White House in 2016 and a 95% chance they win Nevada in 2016.

OK, the thing here is that your assuming all the positive democratic trends right now will always continue into the future and therefore democrats will always do good. It's a nice formula, and its comfortable and easy to assume, but what most democrats don't realize is that whites are moving in a republican direction, which seems unlikely to most democrats, but Hispanic voters are moving left, and that's extra emphasized and obvious. We assume that the current numbers right now will just stay the same or get better for democrats, and because population of those numbers and statistics are increasing, it can only mean better for democrats.

I usually try to be non-partisan and fair to both sides when it comes to election trends, but this has got me pessimistic lately. If your so confident about a democratic white house in 2016, when will republicans ever do good? Will they ever do good? Is their brand just dead? Or are you being too confident? Whats the point of having a two party system if one party is always better than the other?

Note: According the 2012 election, a republican would have to win by 3 points nationally to win Nevada, assuming it swings with the nation, but it never does. According the 2008 election, a republican would have to win by 5 points nationally to win Nevada. Your in the right ballpark, but its way to unpredictable, not to mention Nevada is an elastic state.

So you take issue with the fact that I assume certain trend lines but then you assume whites will continue to trend Republican... OK...

I disagree with the notion that Republicans will just continue doing better and better among whites as some kind of reaction to minorities voting Democrat.  What you guys fail to realize is that whites who vote Democrat are the most liberal and loyal part of the coalition.  Republicans don't even do that well among whites outside of the South.  Furthermore, there is a base of white voters that I do not think will vote Republican anytime soon regardless of trends... If you factor in Jewish voters, Gay voters, Atheists, Feminists, and Liberal whites, you probably get about 1/3 of the white population right there.  These people aren't going to start voting Republican.  Additionally, white voters are actually more liberal on certain issues than the general population... for instance, gay marriage.

Yes, I do think the Republican brand in its current form is dead... absolutely.  They cannot run on disenfranchising minority voters, not allowing gay marriage, and talking about legitimate rape and remain a viable party.  That formula saw its last breaths in 2000/2004 when Bush won and he barely won...

There is a reason why democrats have won the popular vote 5/6 times in the last 6 elections.

So think about what you just said... a Republican would have to win the popular vote by 3-5 points nationally to win Nevada (assuming the state doesn't trend at all)... now think about the fact that Republicans have only won the popular vote once in the last 6 elections and that was an incumbent who won by less than a 3 point margin...

First of all, I never assumed whites would trend more republican, I simply stated that they have trended more republican over the years. I would be biased if I assumed that. Second, why is is that blacks, Hispanic, minorities, etc. can get more democratic, but whites can't get more republican simply because the democratic whites are more "loyal" and "liberal". Hispanic and Black republicans aren't loyal and conservative to their party? With your set of stats, can anything get more republican?

Now, taking this from a clear and non-biased way, I can only assume your being way too overconfident about democratic potential in the future. From 1968-1988. The republican won the popular vote 5/6 times, and this period was even more republican dominated than this democratic period now. They thought they had a "lock" on the electoral college with the South and the Rocky West. They also thought republicans would dominate the presidency for years and years. Same situation here, except this time its the democrats turn, and they are over confident and cocky about the future just like republicans were in the 80's. The republicans thought trends would never come back to the democrats, and look, they did. You can show the facts all you want, its the same situation reversed, this is just history repeating itself in a nutshell. Enjoy this time of democratic dominance.

Actually... you did assume whites are trending more republican... your own words:

"but what most democrats don't realize is that whites are moving in a republican direction"

You are beyond reasoning with so I won't respond past that clearly erroneous point you made.  Enjoy watching the next several Presidential election results, and I hope someone bumps this Nevada thread in 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why do you feel Nevada's trend will continue in the same manner it's been going and why do you feel it's out of reach? It's not Vermont, or even California.

Demographics, bb.

So trending demographics make it out of reach for Republicans?

umm... yes...?

If a group of voters consistently votes for one party (and is even aligning further with that party) and that group is increasing as a share of the overall vote, then the state itself will favor that party unless there is a countervailing force... which there really isn't... rural counties are going further to the right but they are sparsely populated.  This is basically the exact same situation as Virginia and Colorado.  Maryland is another state where this is happening, nobody really cares though because it was already out of reach for Republicans.