Prediction: Hillary will win Orange County CA

[Arbitrage1980]

Thus becoming the first democrat since FDR in 1936 to do so.

OC is very diverse, lot of latinos and Asians. And Trump is anathema to wealthy whites who live in places such as Newport Beach and Laguna Beach.  In 2008 Obama lost the county by just 3 points. Not sure if any OC polls have been done, but I would not be surprised at all if Hillary wins it.

[Illiniwek]

I'm buying it too

[The Advocate]

Considering the demographics of OC (large minority and educated, urban and suburban population), the odds are certainly in her favor.

[Panda Express]

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

[Badger]

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

Indeed. The way demographics and voting habits have shifted, Hillary possibly could've won OC even if Trump weren't the GOP nominee.

[Arbitrage1980]

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

In 2004 Bush got 59.7% in OC. Amazing how quickly things change.

[Arbitrage1980]

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

Indeed. The way demographics and voting habits have shifted, Hillary possibly could've won OC even if Trump weren't the GOP nominee.

Rubio, Kasich, Walker, would have played fairly well in OC.  Given how awful of a candidate Hillary is, I think any one of them would have won OC convincingly, doing better than McCain or Romney.

[Arbitrage1980]

She'll win the county as a whole for sure. As you said, the wealthy whites turned off by Trump combined with the large minority population will deliver the county to Clinton.

How do people think my home city of Newport Beach will vote?

Newport Beach, one of my favorite places in the country.  I think Hillary wins it; I know a lot of wealthy whites in southern cali and other affluent areas who think Trump is utterly insane and unqualified to be President.

[Arbitrage1980]

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

Indeed. The way demographics and voting habits have shifted, Hillary possibly could've won OC even if Trump weren't the GOP nominee.

OC is shifting rapidly. I'm a Newport Beach resident and 95% of bumper stickers I see are Sanders stickers (yesterday I saw a Bernie bumper sticker on a Porsche). I've literally only seen one Trump sticker, located on the back of a supermarket employee's car (I'm assuming it's a worker at my local supermarket as it's always parked in the same place outside of it every day)

Ok; this is shocking.  I have no idea why wealthy whites would support Bernie, but hey that's just me.  I work in finance in NYC, and bunch of my friends who voted Romney are gonna vote Hillary or Johnson.  I'm a lifelong conservative republican and will vote Johnson.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

It's going to happen eventually. Might as well be 2016.

OC will be PVI neutral by 2024.

[NOVA Green]

It's going to happen eventually. Might as well be 2016.

OC will be PVI neutral by 2024.

I'm getting the growing feeling that November will be brutal for Trump, and even down-ballot Republicans up and down the entire West Coast...

During the Dem primaries, I posted some detailed breakdowns of county and precinct level numbers, and noted the collapse of Hillary primary support from '08 to '12 in more heavily blue-collar regions of "downstate Oregon", as well as among largely industrial working-class areas in Metro-Portland.

At this point, I'm leaning towards the opinion, that not only will Republican support completely bottom-out in suburban Portland, but additionally middle and upper-middle class California retirement areas in Southern and Central Oregon will swing heavily Democrat as well (Jackson, Curry, Deschutes in particular).

Additionally, I suspect that Hillary will manage to hold downstate White-Working-Class Obama '08 voters in Coos, Columbia, Douglas, and Linn counties that voted heavily Bernie in the primaries, with minor defections to 3rd party candidates.

Furthermore, in the most heavily Republican parts of the state in Eastern Oregon, I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant Democratic swing in heavily Latino counties like Malheur and Umatilla.

[Desroko]

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

Indeed. The way demographics and voting habits have shifted, Hillary possibly could've won OC even if Trump weren't the GOP nominee.

OC is shifting rapidly. I'm a Newport Beach resident and 95% of bumper stickers I see are Sanders stickers (yesterday I saw a Bernie bumper sticker on a Porsche). I've literally only seen one Trump sticker, located on the back of a supermarket employee's car (I'm assuming it's a worker at my local supermarket as it's always parked in the same place outside of it every day)

Ok; this is shocking.  I have no idea why wealthy whites would support Bernie, but hey that's just me.  I work in finance in NYC, and bunch of my friends who voted Romney are gonna vote Hillary or Johnson.  I'm a lifelong conservative republican and will vote Johnson.

Not really - it's why you ignore complete bullsh**t like bumper stickers and lawn signs.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Probably.

[Xing]

Orange is one of several diverse Romney counties likely to go to for Hillary.

[politicallefty]

I think she'll win it too. If she wins Del Norte as well (in the far north on the Oregon border), she'd sweep the entire coast. I highly doubt she can though, unfortunately.

[evergreenarbor]

I think she'll win it too. If she wins Del Norte as well (in the far north on the Oregon border), she'd sweep the entire coast. I highly doubt she can though, unfortunately.

I would love to see that happen.

[RINO Tom]

Willard Mitt Romney only got 51.8% so yeah, it's flipping.

Indeed. The way demographics and voting habits have shifted, Hillary possibly could've won OC even if Trump weren't the GOP nominee.

Eh, I think any other Pub carries it (again).  However, I think Hillary will win it.