AZ-08 special election: Primary 4/17, General 6/12

[Miles]

I like your style

Way to change the subject by digging up old posts. I don't claim to be right about everything every single time. Anyway, this is not about NV-2, it's about AZ-8. PPP nailed the margins almost exactly for CA-36 and OR-1, both which were touted to be much closer than they turned out to be. There is too much accuracy to keep complaining the PPP is wrong all the time.

I would also add NY-26.

[krazen1211]

GOP turnout in Pima County has surged. Of course Kelly doesn't actually need to win Pima County this time.

http://www.maranaweeklynews.com/v2_news_articles.php?heading=0&page=72&story_id=3410

Democratic 66,947 ballots mailed 47,065 ballots verified 70 percent

Republican 72,745 ballots mailed 50,980 ballots verified 70 percent

[Meeker]

Those would be concerning numbers if the poll didn't show Barber doing much better amongst Republicans than Kelly is doing amongst Democrats. Also if the poll didn't show Barber crushing amongst Independents. But it does show all that, so...

[smoltchanov]

Rooting for Baber. Kelly is disgusting candidate. Hope to see his political "career" finished.

[Miles]

Rooting for Baber. Kelly is disgusting candidate. Hope to see his political "career" finished.

Likewise.

In terms of favorability, Jesse Kelly (37/59) is in a league with Joe Miller (36/59) and Christine O'Donnell (29/50).

[Sbane]

Well, let them think that I guess.

The Pubs keep running social conservatives of mediocre talent in a CD that needs someone considerably more supple.  Kelly's 59% disapproval tells the tale, even if the poll has too many Dems in it. I am surprised by the margin though. I had this CD tilt Dem for the special, and lean Dem for the General. I guess Kelly is even more of a beta than I thought. It looks like it needs to be moved to likely Dem for both elections - maybe safe for the General.

Kelly got 49% in this district just 2 years ago, and more importantly, in this election more Republicans have voted than Democrats. I believe 5% more last time I checked.

Registration in the new AZ-02 is only 34.7 R, 34.2 D, 31.1 I. The new district, of course (your favorite phrase), is very similar to the old one.

The new district is 3 points more Dem actually. AZ has a quite skillful Dem gerrymander.

You know all this complaining about this district takes away attention from the real gerrymandering that went on in the Phoenix area. I know the commission didn't follow your plan to crack Tucson liberals, and thus you are pissed, but the real shenanigans went on in Phoenix in the 9th district and also with the 1st distict, with Sedona somehow ending up in it in the final cut. Tucson is a fast growing area with a substantial Democrat voting population. Why should it have a Republican leaning district instead of the swing district that it is currently? And why should it have Cochise when more than a district can fit into Pima County?

Anyways, this election will be a test for PPP. I think they have oversampled Democrats for this poll. Obama won by 6 in this sample when in reality he lost the district. I think the Democrat still wins but only by 5 or 6.

[Miles]

This was posted on Facebook; I think its nice:

[ajc0918]

That's cute..

[Lief 🗽]

Polls have been closed for 40 minutes and no votes are in yet, what is this.

[DrScholl]

Polls don't close until the next hour, in less than 20 minutes.

[Lief 🗽]

Oh, stupid Arizona not observing daylight savings.

[RogueBeaver]

35 minutes in and still no results. AZ reported pretty quickly during the February primary IIRC, so what's up?

[Incipimus iterum]

where the Blazes are those guy reporting the votes

[Brittain33]

Pima County announced they're not posting anything until 8:20 PM at the earliest.

Explanation:

http://www.maranaweeklynews.com/v2_news_articles.php?heading=0&page=72&story_id=3416

[RogueBeaver]

where the Blazes are those guy reporting the votes

Apparently they'll only start reporting in 20-25 minutes or so. No idea why.

[Lief 🗽]

Arizona is awful. It's been more than an hour!

[Miles]

DKE says Barber is running 6 points ahead of Obama with the results that have trickled in so far.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Will there be a link for the live results?

[xavier110]

http://www.pima.gov/elections/results1.htm

[Miles]

According to the AZ SoS Barber is up 53-44 with 37/352 precincts in.

Not very far off from PPP; lets see if it holds...

[Miles]

So far, Barber is performing 7% better than Obama.

From DKE:

The counties are playing out as follows (Barber's vote share relative to Obama's):
Cochise: Barber +7.5
Pima: Barber +7.4
Pinal: Barber +4.5
Santa Cruz: Barber +6.3

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like an easy D win.

[Lief 🗽]

LOL krazen

[Incipimus iterum]

from Politioco
AZ 8: 10.5% in
Barber- 53.1
Kelly- 44.4

[DrScholl]

Looks like PPP wasn't so wrong after all.