Was 2016 closer to 1968, or 1980?
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  Was 2016 closer to 1968, or 1980?
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Author Topic: Was 2016 closer to 1968, or 1980?  (Read 363 times)
TDantuono
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« on: November 16, 2016, 01:47:59 AM »

Both 1968 and 1980 saw an 'outsider' Republican make in roads into typically safe Democratic areas and voting blocs, and both represented a time of wilderness for the Democratic Party, wherein the party was left to rediscover and redefine itself.

Both '68 and '80's results can also be seen as a pushback against the leftist movements of the two eras: 1968 saw Nixon winning on a 'law and order' stance, with voters electing him to push back against the lawlessness and rioting which populated the late 1960s. Reagan's victory in 1980 was a symbolic blow to the concept of 'big government' and marked a return to a more 1950s era value system, in response to the wild changes of the '60s and '70s.

'68's results left the Democrats without a real direction for over a decade; Reagan's results were seen as the death knell for the New Deal coalition.

The question is, was 2016 a similar referendum on the Democratic Party embracing a two far left stance? Will the 2020s be conservative like the '80s were? Will the Democratic Party recapture the White House by 2020, as they did in 1976? Or will they be left in the wilderness for a prolonged period, like after 1980?
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2016, 09:30:33 AM »

1976/shortened 1920.

In both cases, the minority party is very close to becoming the majority party. The last gasp of the majority party is heard in 1976 (Carter) and 1920 (Harding).

Trump is the regionalizing of the GOP, the transformation of the GOP from a broad national party to a regional sectional party. There is a reason he did not win the popular vote and he crucially won because of winning very similar states in the Midwest.

The Trump coalition is very uniform, homogeneous, and economically similar. The Democratic coalition is looking a lot more diverse, bigger, and more national.
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Deblano
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« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2016, 09:50:28 AM »

I saw it as a slightly toned down 1968.

Clinton was the Herbert Humphrey-esque figure, Bernie Sanders was like Eugene McCarthy, and Trump was an ungodly mix between Richard Nixon and George Wallace.
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Clarence Boddicker
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« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2016, 10:40:34 AM »

1968, if Wallace had won.
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Mr. Reactionary
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2016, 11:40:56 AM »

68.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2016, 11:57:13 AM »

The question is, was 2016 a similar referendum on the Democratic Party embracing a two far left stance?

No. This was not much of a policy election. There were no spirited debates on things like trickle down economics or plausible ways forward on healthcare. This election mostly centered around a few other things, mostly character, as each candidate sought to make the other unacceptable to voters (Trump = unfit, Hillary = corrupt, etc). When it did come to policy, the main topics were mostly trade and immigration.

I'd say the overall theme was globalization and multiculturalism, which trade and immigration represented. Trade and immigration are one thing that the establishment wings of both parties have largely seen eye-to-eye on. However, there is an important caveat to what may look like a rejection of these issues: The young vs the old. Young people (18 - 44) basically voted overwhelmingly in favor of multiculturalism, but where trade mattered most, they did not (rustbelt). Older people (45+) resisted both.



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Nope. In fact, Trump ended up adopting some policy from Democrats. Indifference on gay marriage, supports large infrastructure spending, leaving popular social programs alone, child care.

I think it's important to remember that Trump absolutely bombed among the 18 - 44 electorate, with the worst losses being among the youngest voters. He lost among almost every substantial growing part of the electorate while consolidating support among the shrinking parts. The thing about Reagan is that he helped sell a new brand of conservatism to over a generation's worth of voters, including the young, Trump essentially energized the existing elderly GOP coalition and picked up some Democrat WCWs.

I would have to ask - what happens in 10 years, when conservatives/Republicans lose an entire decade's worth of their most stalwart supporters, and Democrats/liberals come to command the support of the entire 18 - 50 age bloc? I think there is little doubt that the GOP is the nation's current majority party in terms of who holds the most power, but the GOP coalition is still aging and dying off much faster than Democrats, and I have a feeling the GOP has already hit it's peak and the descent will be faster than the ascent.


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In my opinion, Trump's win this year is reminiscent of Carter in 1976, in that the previously-dominant party had its last hurrah as it currently existed. After Carter, Democrats had to change to begin winning again. And like that, Republicans need to change to win again. They have resisted significantly so far and because of that, they are bringing in less new voters than Democrats. I think the effect of this has shown itself for over a generation. Since 1992, the GOP has not won a presidential election by more than 2.5%. In fact, in this time, they has lost the popular vote in all but 1 presidential election. Both Bush and Trump were first elected against the will of the majority of America.

You could argue their power at the state level, but Democrats were also dominant like that up until 1994, and then it all came crashing down as generations of increasingly Republican voters overwhelmed Democrats and their dominance in the South began crumbling.


Personally I believe that, like now, Trump will continue to be an unpopular figure and in all likelihood will cost Republicans substantial representation in 2018 and 2020, leading up to redistricting, resulting in the GOP no longer being able to inflict maximum pain via gerrymandering on Democrats. Thus, in my opinion, the 2020s will not be friendly to the GOP by any means.
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hopper
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« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2016, 01:57:18 PM »

The question is, was 2016 a similar referendum on the Democratic Party embracing a two far left stance?


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In my opinion, Trump's win this year is reminiscent of Carter in 1976, in that the previously-dominant party had its last hurrah as it currently existed. After Carter, Democrats had to change to begin winning again. And like that, Republicans need to change to win again. They have resisted significantly so far and because of that, they are bringing in less new voters than Democrats. I think the effect of this has shown itself for over a generation. Since 1992, the GOP has not won a presidential election by more than 2.5%. In fact, in this time, they has lost the popular vote in all but 1 presidential election. Both Bush and Trump were first elected against the will of the majority of America.

You could argue their power at the state level, but Democrats were also dominant like that up until 1994, and then it all came crashing down as generations of increasingly Republican voters overwhelmed Democrats and their dominance in the South began crumbling.


The popular vote was still close in both 2000 and 2016 even though the Republican Candidates lost the popular vote overall. It was "Hillary's Campaigns Team Fault in WI, and MI for not putting enough emphasis(i.e. campaigning) in those 2 states. I think she did spend time in Pennsylvania but she still lost the state.
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hopper
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« Reply #7 on: November 16, 2016, 02:41:29 PM »

I don't know I think '76. I don't like agreeing with Virginia(the poster) politically but I think she is right on this one!
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