Italy 2013: The official thread

[SPQR]

Storace is going to lose by a lot,way more than thirteen points.

Also,today's poll at Ballarò showed a lead for the center-left of more than 12 points.

Yeah,sure,"the comeback"...

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I wonder how much support would jump from IBC to Ingroia/De Magistris out of protest for aligning with the "evil austerity" regime.

None.
They get their votes from people who don't vote as of now,and especially from left-leaning Grillo voters.

[SPQR]

Pathetic.

This.

Like Pannella.

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Pannella won't be allied with Storace for "technical reasons".

[SPQR]

Last Corriere della Sera poll had Veneto within 3%.

[SPQR]

The center-left is still ahead nationally by around 9%,and at last there are polls showing it ahead also in Lombardy and Sicily, which would grant it an absolute majority in the Senate.
If,come election day,the lead nationally will have become 6% instead of 9%,nobody really gives a damn,as long as the swing hasn't been in the Senate swing regions.

So,saying that "Berlusconi is coming back" is pure nonsense.

[SPQR]

The Senate polls in Lombardy and Sicily show both as toss ups though. I wouldn't say there is a consistent lead for either side.

And some polls show the national lead well lower than 9% unless you're saying they're total junk polls (which you and a few others would know better than the rest of us).

The only polls showing a lead well lower than 9% are Euromedia,which is Berlusconi's pollster,and SpinCon which is junk (online polls!)

[SPQR]

Euromedia regional polls

Lombardia: Berlusconi 35.4 Bersani 35.2 Monti 13.6 Grillo 10.4 Ingroia 3.6
Veneto: Berlusconi 48.7 Bersani 32.6 Monti 11 Grillo 5 Ingroia 1.2
Campania: Bersani 34.7 Berlusconi 32.4 Monti 12.8 Grillo 10.3 Ingroia 7.5
Sicily: Berlusconi 31.6 Bersani 31.4 Monti 14.7 Grillo 13.8 Ingroia 6.1

Their Lombardia, Campania and Sicilia polls are in line with IPSO and IPR. Their national polls look a bit strange given these regional polls...except for Veneto. Veneto is a bit bizarre with both Grillo and Ingroia very low.

This Veneto poll seems more like a prediction based on past results and recent trends than a real poll.

[SPQR]

Exactly one month to go. An eight point lead and Silvio hasn't ramped up campaigning yet. Just saying.

Don't get wet,ex-Silvio hater.

[SPQR]

Supporting Fratelli d'Italia = supporting Silvio,btw.

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"Mussolini was a great leader except for the laws against Jews".

Berlusconi,today.

[SPQR]

He's obviously trying to attract more right-leaning voters,but they'd probably vote for him anyway since The Right and Fratelli d'Italia are already in the coalition.

At the same time,he's pissing off everyone else who is not a Berlusconi hack.
So,pretty much,losing Jews,gaining neo-fascists. Won't lose many votes,he just lost another bit of dignity and integrity (if he had any left).

[SPQR]

Particularly amusing as he did actually have a chance to make some sort of breakthrough. Not much of one, but it was there. lol.

He never had any chance to compete for the first place.
His only chance is a hung Senate,and an alliance with PD.

[SPQR]

ISPO poll on Sicily: 33 Bersani, 32 Berlusconi

[SPQR]

Given national swing,Friuli and Piedmont are both lean-Bersani.

[SPQR]

Accusations against Bersani or PD are ridicolous.

The bank was controlled (55% of shares,now only 33% after an increase in capital) by a Foundation,and 13 of the 16 administrators of the Foundation were chosen by both the Province and the City of Siena,as established by a law from the '90s.
Since PD won both,then the local members had to choose the 16 administrators,but to think that the national secretary is in any way responsible of the management choices of a bank,or of documents which the Bank of Italy itself could not find during its controls on the bank,since they were hidden,is absolutely ridicolous.

Also,the mayor of Siena (PD) lost a confidence vote (through a political maneveur of a former PD councillor and current Scelta Civica candidate) because he wanted to change some administrators of the Foundation.

[SPQR]

Today there were no public buses in Naples because of a lack of gasoline...De Magistris is quicly losing popularity,and that's what's affecting Ingroia's numbers in Campania.


As for Montepaschi: I partly explained why it's "political" above.
The scandal exploded because in 2007 they bought a bank for 9 billions,when that same bank had been bought for 6 billions only a few months before.
At the time it was a discussed operation,even though they got the go-ahead from the Banca d'Italia (central bank).
Afterwards there was the financial crisis but Montepaschi performed way worse than all other banks,and now,with a change of management of last year,it's been found that there were weird and probably illegal operations,which tried to cover up losses through derivative instruments, and there might well be bribes as well.

What's really disturbing is that the president of Montepaschi at the time of the operation,Mussari,was,until last week,the president of the Italian Banking Association.

[SPQR]

From the Transparency International 2012 Corruption Perception Index

Uruguay:                  Rank 20, score 72
Spain                        Rank 30, Score 65
Italy:                        Rank 72, score 42
Argentina                  Rank 102, score 35

For reference:
USA                         Rank 19, score 73
Ghana                      Rank 65, score 45
India                        Rank 94, score 36

Oh, and by the way - I hate censorship, and just start to wonder whether I mad a mistake in my moderator rating.

Thanks.

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At least Berlusconi didn't steal money from its own party.

He organised some parties with cute women....oh, the horror!

Hey,look,the average italian voter!

[SPQR]

All pollsters except Euromedia and SpinCon are at the same (decent) level of accuracy.

[SPQR]

The Champions League game between AC Milan and Barcelona on Feb. 20 should be interesting.

Do you think a win by Milan will lead to a Right win in Lombardy, or will a win by Milan have nothing to do with a potential Right wing a few days later ?

Oh my...please stop overestimating football's impact on elections.

[SPQR]

Anyway,Finmeccanica's president, who was arrested this week,claimed last year that he "owes literally everything to Maroni",who is the Lega North secretary...

[SPQR]

Great... Another useless retarded "polemic"...

On what?

[SPQR]

Great... Another useless retarded "polemic"...

On what?

The Napolitano-Obama meeting.

Ah lol, that's just the center-right whining as usual.
99% of italians don't even know that meeting happened.

[SPQR]

Polls which are leaking through the internet show a center-left lead between 5 and 8%...no news about the Senate though.

[SPQR]

Polls which are leaking through the internet show a center-left lead between 5 and 8%...no news about the Senate though.

Are these reliable polls made by the usual pollsters or amateur/internet polls?

Should be reliable,but obviously they can't say which pollster made it,since it's illegal to publish polls now.

BTW,Prodi has been the best Italian PM of the last...20?30? years.