UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[parochial boy]

The Lib Dems are going to wet themselves.

If Zac does stand again; he was a leave campaigner in the EU ref, and Richmond voted 70%-30% to stay in.

Although that will pay off against his perceived integrity in resigning now.

[parochial boy]

Will Vince Cable want to contest this seat? His neck of the woods.

The Lib Dems have nominated Sarah Olney as their candidate - apparently she's only been a member since the last General Election.

So I'm not sure if there is scope for Cable to replace Olney as candidate.

[parochial boy]

We have our first poll

GOLDSMITH (Ind) 56% (down 2 from the Con share in 2015)
OLNEY (Lib Dem) 29% (up 10 from the LD share in 2015)
LABOUR 10% (-2)
OTHER 5% (-5)

[parochial boy]

I was round Richmond Park earlier today, obviously a crap metric, but Lib Dem posters/boards outnumbering Conservative ones two to one. 18 months ago, there wasn't a single Lib Dem sign around, so if anything, they are feeling a bit more optimistic this time.

Of course, if the number of garden signs are anything to go by, the overwhelming winners are estate agents...

[parochial boy]

If Brexit is the defining issue in these by-elections these days, then Labour do have a somewhat major handicap in that no-one has a clue where they stand on Brexit. That's not down to Corbyn being a "lefty extremist" but down to him being basically clueless.

there is some signs the right of the party (Kinnock Jr., Kendall etc.) are starting to realise the potential disaster however the leadership remain blissfully unaware and are making the problem worse with their policies on immigration amongst other things. 

The policies that those sorts of people support have had more than their fair share of creating Labour's current issues - no party of the working class spends its time "reforming" the public sector and creating a "flexible" labour force.

[parochial boy]

I do wonder how bad it would have to get for him to go, or alternatively to lose the support of his hardcore.

Mostly they seem content to blame everything on "teh Media" without an introspection - I can't see that losing a couple of by-elections, even in safe seat would change that.

[parochial boy]

I saw a poll from labour leave that had UKIP(Nuttall) up by 10 over labour I don't know how serious or accurate that poll is though

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9799

Looks like
A. Tiny sample size
B. Self selected sample

So totally useless

[parochial boy]

Howling Laud Hope also has some, er, interesting views about black people.

[parochial boy]

I saw the other day the Labour were feeling increasingly confident of holding both; even if both seats seem uniquely badly suited to the state labour are currently in (Corbyn vs the nuclear power industry in Copeland; and Brexity-Brexity-Brexit in Stoke)

[parochial boy]

What exactly is Corbyn and his crowd hoping for at this point in time? I mean, it clearly ain't working; and if the polling figures Vileplume posted about the labour brand are correct, then he is doing some serious damage to the party long term.

Obviously, sticking D Milliband in charge isn't going to save things overnight, but Corbyn as at a point where he is even damaging the radical left with his incompetence.

[parochial boy]

Out of curiosity, what makes a particular CLP more "left" or "right" wing traditionally? I wouldn't have thought the kind of person joining the party would vary much from one constituency to another.

Is it just down to the profile of who is an active member / the clique in charge?

[parochial boy]

This is like trump losing western Nebraska

Not really. It's more like Trump losing Southern Illinois - it's territory he should win, but it has different roots.

Neither region Western Nebraska or Southern Illinois is well defined. Based on a persons definition of those regions, Trumps performance can vary heavily.

Crabcacke wrote a good post here about the relationship between UK and US a political geography that I think you guys might appreciate