The Wisconsin Cheese Showdown

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If only these protesters had dressed up in 18th century garb and held signs with horrible spelling about how Obama is simultaneously a Muslim, Socialist and Nazi. Then they would be true American patriots.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good Midwest progressives.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Really with the way this is played, this is just going to really bite Walker and the Republicans in the ass. As noted most people know at least one public sector and know how ridiculous the "overpaid" nonsense is, especially with teachers. I have a tough time seeing Wisconsin being to the right of North Dakota on this where the vast majority of people would find that claim rather comical.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Would that be possible without the cooperation of the local government of Madison though? Because they obviously wouldn't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And there you have another reason why Walker isn't messing with police unions.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Exactly. Fix the issue by repealing what Walker did.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The closed schools are in MADISON. People in Madison aren't going to vote Republican over that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow. I actually respect something about the Packers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I bet that the vast majority of Walker-supporters out there think Joe McCarthy was one of the state's best Senators.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Damn snowstorm.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I remember a fuss here when some Republicans in the State House switched sides to override Pawlenty's gas tax veto. The one who was primaried was from a suburban more liberal district which Obama ended up winning solidly. At least one of the others was from a very conservative rural district, and they won with no problems. Please note this was 2008 as well.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The bit about younger voters being more pro-union is kind of notable, now most people would say it's not surprising that youngs have more liberal views, but unionization is something people tend to association with olds as unions were far more relevant back then.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, when even Rasmussen is showing numbers like that, you know the jig is up.

The Pubbies cannot afford to back down, and won't.

One already has, and we just need two more. There have to be at least two recently elected from marginal districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There are three Republicans who barely won last time who are recall-eligible, one whose district is based around Oshkosh with some more conservative areas, one who has a district based around La Crosse and some Democratic rural areas and one who must be a really lousy politician as her seat is mostly northern Milwaukee suburbs (part goes very close to the city though so it's probably more swing than it appears at a casual glance.) The La Crosse one strikes me as the best target even though he won by the widest margin. The Oshkosh one who won by about a hundred votes is obviously a very ripe target as well. Of course if these two fold, it might save their jobs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The difference is that all the Democrats remaining are in pretty safe districts. And there's not much you can do to shore up the La Crosse-based seat, even all the rural areas around it are Democratic.

God I hate talking about or hearing about La Crosse.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There's 33 districts. You need about 170k people per district. And Senate districts aren't drawn themselves, they are made by combining three Assembly districts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not that I know of. But this is the current seat and because of that you can't split La Crosse as they wouldn't want a 67% Obama city making up half of two Assembly districts. So you could add it to some "marginal" territory perhaps, but probably the absolute best you're getting in that area is like 57% Obama or so. It doesn't help that most of that "marginal" territory already belongs to another Republican State Senator (granted he is the one who has already caved, but he's also been in a long time so I don't see him being thrown under the bus for an attempt to save someone which may not work anyway.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The thing with Wisconsin is because of the way the state can swing you just can't draw a wave-proof map (for either party). And the GOP certainly can't assume all elections will be 2010 (though with the arrogance I'm hearing it sounds like they will), and with the current status of support for Walker and his policies and the way Obama looks in the state for 2012 against opposition it's clearly 2012 probably isn't going to be that.

Now they might manage to save a few seats via gerrymandering but you simply can't draw a solid GOP seat around La Crosse, period. So if the situation continues with support for Walker there being no doubt what it is, that seat is going to be lost. The guy might flip to try to save himself like his neighbor, but there's really simply no way to lock him up.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually in a rather Orwellian twist the Republicans are arguing that Walker rather has the SUPPORT of the people. Just check out the Gubernatorial board, it's full of spin about how these numbers aren't "that bad" for Walker. Even one Republicans has flat out argued the difference between health care reform and what Walker is pushing is Walker has the majority support...though the polls show more support for HCR. This is even more ridiculous than some of the arguments I heard from die-hard Hillary idiots about how Obama was "selected, not elected" by the superdelegates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So much for the "treacherous" Democrats being less popular than Walker:

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[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yeah there are signs that two more Republicans might fall. I'm comfortable predicting there is no way the guy from La Crosse gets re-elected unless he flips on this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No matter how this went, the result was going to be the same, Republicans have stepped in it in Wisconsin. Next election, they are going to have zero credibility for overreaching and swing voters aren't going to be perceptive to them. What reason would they have to be?

Because they acted like adults and fixed the state's fiscal mess without raising taxes?

The next scheduled state election is over a year and a half away.  That's an eternity in politics.  Things that are important today may be forgotten.  Or not.

Remember - recalls work both ways, too.

Oh yes because there are so many Senate Democrats in Wisconsin in such vulnerable seats.

Say goodbye to that piece of sh!t asshole representing La Crosse. I'd bet anything he is done.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh yes I'm sure the total of two Democrats in the class of 2010 who represent Janesville and inner-city Milwaukee are soooooooooo vulnerable.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The polls were already against the Republicans.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The polls were already against the Republicans.

They were also already against the Democrats - an inconvenient fact missed by many partisans.

With majority favorable opinion of teacher's unions and 57% disapproval for Walker?