276: Clinton/Warren(48.3%)
262: Trump/Webb(48.8%)
Others: 2.9%
Trump's keynote Speaker, John Kasich, and the Democratic keynote speaker, Gavin Newsom, are both considered to have done great jobs. Unfortunately, I think Warren might outshine Clinton. While Trump continues to be nuanced on abortion and gay marriage, he strikes a tough tone on fair but free trade to mobilize the base. His outreach to blacks includes blaming free trade for their high unemployment.
Republicans cry foul, and while they confirm Garland, 2018 becomes a massive landslide for them. Richard Tisei holds on in Massachusetts, while they also pick up a seat in Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia when Manchin retires. Despite Johnson and Toomey losing in 2016, this gives them 57 seats. Steve Austria winning in Ohio makes it 58, Paulsen makes it 59(MN), Dent makes it 60(PA), and Tom Davis makes it 61(VA).
I'd say either Kasich or Webb wins in 2020.
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