English local elections, May 2014

[YL]

(Separate thread for Northern Ireland here.)

This year's round of local elections in England will be held on Thursday 22 May, the same day as the European elections.

Most seats up were last contested in 2010, on the same day as the General Election.  They include all seats in London boroughs (not to be confused with the London Assembly or the City of London), a third of seats in all Metropolitan Boroughs (the last time this will be the case, as Doncaster is moving to full council elections from next year), and seats in some shire districts and unitary authorities (in most cases a third of all seats, in a handful, like Oxford, a half, and all seats in some where there have been boundary changes).  Full list here.

[YL]

The Yorkshire Mets.  In all cases each ward has three councillors, and the seats being contested are those last contested in 2010; each ward also has councillors elected in 2011 and 2012.  There may be occasional cases where a vacancy has arisen in one of the seats contested in 2011 or 2012, in which case the ward will elect two councillors; the only example I'm aware of is Craven ward in Bradford.

Barnsley

Currently Lab 53 Con 5 BIG 5.  2010: Lab 17 Con 2 BIG 2.  2012: Lab 18 BIG 2 Con 1.
(BIG: Barnsley Independent Group)

Labour nearly lost control here a few years ago at the Barnsley Independent Group's peak, but that seems a long time ago and Barnsley politics looks much like it normally would be expected to.  All the Tories represent the Penistone area in the west of the borough; neither Penistone ward is exactly safe for them and Labour won West in 2012.

Bradford

Currently Lab 44 Con 22 LD 8 BrIG 5 Green 3 "The Independents" 3 QWI 2 Peace 1 Ind 1 vacant 1 (Con).  2010: Lab 16 Con 9 LD 3 BNP 1 Green 1.  2012: Lab 11 Con 9 Resp 5 LD 3 Green 1 Ind 1.
BrIG: Bradford Independent Group (ex Respect), QWI: Queensbury Ward Independents (ex BNP)

This has turned into a mess, with several different "Independent" groups on the council (almost like Stoke a few years back).  One of the groups, of course, consists of the five Respect councillors elected in 2012 in the aftermath of George Galloway's by-election win; they fell out with the party last year.  Labour only need two gains for overall control; the Peace Party seat in Heaton (where the councillor was elected as Labour) and the remaining Tory seat in Bowling & Barkerend would be the obvious targets, but I'm not going to predict anything in Bradford.

Calderdale

Currently Lab 21 Con 17 LD 11 Ind 2.  2010: LD 7 Con 4 Lab 4 Ind 2.  2012: Lab 9 Con 5 LD 3.

All three parties have areas of strength here, and it's hard for anyone to win a majority, though Labour will come close if they do as well as they did in 2012: they'd presumably have to win all of Brighouse, Calder, Luddendenfoot, Sowerby Bridge, Todmorden and Warley.  The council has a minority Labour administration.

Doncaster

Currently Lab 51 Con 8 LD 1 CG 1 IndCon 1 Ind 2 (plus Labour elected mayor).  2010: Lab 17 Con 3 LD 1.  2012: Lab 16 Con 3 LD 1 CG 1.
(CG: Community Group)

The main interest in Doncaster politics recently has been the mayoral elections; all but one of Doncaster's 21 wards have voted the same way in each of the last three council elections.  Two of the three Lib Dems elected in Bessacarr & Cantley have recently left the party.  This will be the last set of elections on these ward boundaries; Doncaster will move to full council elections on new ward boundaries from 2015.

Kirklees

Currently Lab 32 Con 18 LD 11 Green 5 Ind 3.  2010: Lab 10 Con 6 LD 5 Green 1 Ind 1.  2012: Lab 12 Con 5 LD 3 Green 2 Ind 1.

Like Calderdale, all three main parties have some strength here and so it's hard for anyone to win a majority.  Labour aren't that far off at the moment but they need three gains for overall control and would need to do very well to achieve that; the recent Lib Dem gain in a by-election in Golcar has made it harder.  As in Calderdale, the council currently has a minority Labour administration.

Leeds

Currently Lab 63 Con 18 LD 10 MBI 5 Green 2 Ind 1.  2010: Lab 20 Con 6 LD 5 MBI 2.  2012: Lab 21 Con 6 LD 3 MBI 2 Green 1.
(MBI: Morley Borough Independents)

Leeds had a Con/Lib Dem coalition for several years but Labour have dominated the last three elections and so now have a substantial majority.  The Tory strength is mostly in the north of the council area, to a large extent outside the city proper.  (I can never understand what Wetherby is doing in Leeds city council's area.)

Rotherham

Currently Lab 57 Con 4 UKIP 1 Ind 1.  2010: Lab 19 Con 2.  2012: Lab 19 Con 1 Ind 1.

This has been a very safe Labour council; even in 2008 Labour won two thirds of the wards here.  However, if UKIP are going to have much of an impact in the Yorkshire Mets I'd expect it to be here, both because of relatively good organisation dating back a few years and because the Council and local Labour party have had some problems recently, with UKIP (who won a by-election in Rawmarsh last year) seeming the most likely to benefit.  Rotherham may also be TUSC's best chance of winning a ward (not saying much!) as they won a Town Council seat in Maltby.  The Tories are largely restricted to two wards (Sitwell and Hellaby); the Lib Dems are basically as irrelevant as their eighth place in the parliamentary by-election suggests.

Sheffield

Currently Lab 60 LD 22 Green 2.  2010: Lab 16 LD 12.  2012: Lab 21 LD 6 Green 1.

From the mid 1990s until 2010, Sheffield was closely fought between Labour and the Lib Dems, but Labour gained a lot of seats in both 2011 and 2012 and control of the Council now seems safely in their hands for the foreseeable future.  Labour may well lose their last seat in Central ward to the Greens, and the Greens will also be hoping to win Broomhill for the first time after beating the Lib Dems (who will be defending the seat) into third last year.  Proposed changes to library services may hurt Labour in some wards; certainly they seem to be main topic in Lib Dem leaflets (well, other than bar charts).  However in most places I'd expect similar results to 2011 and 2012, with the Lib Dems holding most or all of the Hallam wards and Labour winning most of the wards elsewhere in the city.

Wakefield

Currently Lab 52 Con 11.  2010: Lab 14 Con 7.  2012: Lab 20 Con 1

The Tories were doing quite well here in the later years of the Blair/Brown governments, with some hyping of the possibility that they might take control.  But since then Labour have returned to dominating the borough, winning all but three wards in 2011 and all but Wakefield South in 2012.  The Lib Dems used to win Ossett ward but last did so in 2007.

[YL]

Merseyside

Knowsley

Currently Lab 63. 2010: Lab 22 (including a double vacancy). 2012: Lab 21

I don't think any further comment is necessary.

Liverpool

Currently Lab 75 LD 9 Lib 3 Green 2 Ind 2 (plus Labour mayor).  2010: Lab 20 LD 9 Lib 1.  2012: Lab 27 LD 1 Lib 1 Green 1.

Things have gone horribly wrong here for the Lib Dems, who actually controlled the Council until 2010.  The Coalition hasn't helped, but there have been problems in the local party too.  Anyway, they won Church ward by enough last time that they probably won't fail to win a single seat.  The Liberal strength is based around Steve Radford and is entirely in Tuebrook ward.  The Greens will be trying to win the third seat in St. Michael's.

St. Helen's

Currently Lab 40 LD 5 Con 3.  2010: Lab 12 LD 3 Con 1.  2012: Lab 14 LD 1 Con 1.

Another council where Labour lost control for a few years but regained a majority in 2010 and are now dominant.  In 2011 and 2012 the Lib Dems and Tories have won just one ward each (Eccleston and Rainford respectively).

Sefton

Currently Lab 36 LD 20 Con 8 IndCon 2.  2010: Lab 9 LD 9 Con 4.  2012: Lab 15 LD 6 Con 1

Sefton used to be thought of as a permanently hung council, with the south (essentially Bootle) voting Labour, the north (essentially Southport) voting Lib Dem or Tory, and the area in between (Crosby, Formby, Maghull) being mixed but not helping any party enough for them to take overall control.  However, this middle area has been  trending to Labour, the Sefton Tories seem to have fallen apart, and in 2012 Labour became the first party to have overall control of Sefton, winning in some quite surprising places (though one was a fluke caused by a Tory/UKIP split).  It's hard to see them losing it in 2014.

Wirral

Currently Lab 36 Con 22 LD 6 Ind 1 vacant 1(Lab).  2010: Lab 12 Con 8 LD 3 (including one double vacancy).  2012: Lab 13 Con 7 LD 2

Labour gained control here in 2012 for the first time on the current ward boundaries.  However, by Merseyside standards the Tories are reasonably healthy here; they win most of the seats on the western, Dee estuary, side of the peninsula and actually gained a seat off Labour in a by-election recently.  Still, Labour ought to keep control but might not increase their majority.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Any chance of a UKIP break through in Knowsley? Seems like the sort of Labour area they'd target.

Anyway, it seems like both my student address in Sheffield and home address in Enfield are up for grabs. Both are pretty much safe seats (Lib Dem and Tory respectively), so I won't bother commuting down to London to vote and just vote here


btw thanks for these updates!

[joevsimp]

Any chance of a UKIP break through in Knowsley? Seems like the sort of Labour area they'd target.

Anyway, it seems like both my student address in Sheffield and home address in Enfield are up for grabs. Both are pretty much safe seats (Lib Dem and Tory respectively), so I won't bother commuting down to London to vote and just vote here


btw thanks for these updates!

a certain Mr Kilroy-silk was MP for Knowsley North back in the 80's, of course he's not still with UKIP anymore but that could've been interesting

[ObserverIE]

Any chance of a UKIP break through in Knowsley? Seems like the sort of Labour area they'd target.

Unless there's a hidden residual Orange vote in Knowsley, it would actually strike me as being fairly unpromising territory for them. Wythenshawe except more so.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Any chance of a UKIP break through in Knowsley? Seems like the sort of Labour area they'd target.

Ummmm... no.

[YL]

SELNEC (plus Saddleworth), hoping that Andrew Teale will fill in the details a bit.

Bolton

Currently Lab 41 Con 16 LD 3.  2010: Lab 13 Con 6 LD 1, 2012: Lab 14 Con 7 (including triple vacancy) LD 1.

Bolton was under no overall control from 2003 until 2011, but as with many councils now has a healthy-looking Labour majority.  The 2010, 2011 and 2012 results were all quite similar in terms of wards won, with the Lib Dems winning Andrew Teale's Duchy of Smithills, the Tories winning a few wards in the north and west of the borough, and Labour winning the rest.

Bury

Currently Lab 35 Con 13 LD 2 Ind 1.  2010: Lab 9 Con 7 (including double vacancy) LD 2, 2012: Lab 14 Con 3.

This was Tory controlled from 2008 to 2010, but Labour took control in 2011 and the Tories had a nightmare in 2012, which explains the current large Labour majority.  The recent Ramsbottom by-election suggests the Tories have recovered a bit.  In a pattern repeated elsewhere in Greater Manchester, the Lib Dems last won seats here in 2010, so could be heading for wipeout.

Manchester

Currently Lab 86 LD 9 IndLab 1.  2010: Lab 23 LD 9, 2012: Lab 32.

Labour had clean sweeps here in both 2011 and 2012.  However one Labour councillor has left the party and is sitting as an independent so there should still be an opposition of sorts.  The 2012 margins were over 10% in all wards (Withington being the closest) so the Lib Dems look to have an uphill struggle to avoid wipeout.

Oldham

Currently Lab 44 LD 14 Con 2.  2010: Lab 13 LD 7, 2012: Lab 15 LD 4 Con 1.

Labour regained overall control here in 2011 and now have a healthy majority.  The non-Labour seats are concentrated in the east, in the loyally Yorkshire parish of Saddleworth (the two Tories both represent Saddleworth South) and the Lancashire town of Shaw & Crompton.

Rochdale

Currently Lab 43 Con 12 LD 5.  2010: Lab 9 LD 7 Con 5, 2012: Lab 17 Con 3.

You will notice that the Lib Dems, who controlled the council until 2010, had more councillors elected in the 2010 elections than they have now.  Their implosion here has been more dramatic than just about anywhere else, with mass defections as well as disastrous results.  All remaining Lib Dem councillors are up this year, so wipeout is looking likely.  I'm not sure how much of this is to do with Cyril Smith.

Salford

Currently Lab 52 Con 8 (plus Labour elected mayor).  2010: Lab 17 Con 3, 2012: Lab 18 Con 2.

Labour have never lost control here, though their position around 2008 was weaker than now.  The only ward not to have voted the same way in each of 2010, 2011 and 2012 is Walkden South, which was Labour in 2012 but Tory in the other two years.  Apart from that the Tories are concentrated in two wards in the west of the borough, and everything else is Labour.

Stockport

Currently LD 29 Lab 21 Con 10 Ind 3.  2010: LD 12 Lab 5 Con 3 Ind 1, 2012: LD 10 Lab 8 Con 2 Ind 1.

Yes, there is still a Met where the Lib Dems are the largest party, though they lost overall control in 2011.  They did better in 2012, but they're defending their strong result in 2010 so aren't likely to regain overall control.  Labour's strength is in the north of the borough, the Tories' in Bramhall in the south, and the Lib Dems' both in the west around Cheadle and the east around Marple and Hazel Grove.

Tameside

Currently Lab 51 Con 6.  2010: Lab 17 Con 2.  2012: Lab 18 Con 1.

Labour have had overall control here since 1979, and didn't come close to losing it even in 2008.  The Tories have three councillors in Stalybridge South, two in Hyde Werneth (Labour won that in 2012) and one in Audenshaw via a defection from Labour.  The Lib Dems didn't even have a single candidate in 2012.

Trafford

Currently Con 33 Lab 26 LD 4.  2010: Con 12 (including double vacancy) Lab 8 LD 2, 2012: Con 10 Lab 9 LD 2.

This is now the only Tory-controlled Met in the North.  They only need to lose two seats to lose control; based on 2012 results they'd just hold on by one seat, but another one (St. Mary's) was very close.  They might be able to make things more comfortable by winning Timperley and/or Village from the Lib Dems (both were blue in 2011).

Wigan

Currently Lab 63 WIN 5 SI 2 Con 1 LD 1 Ind 3.  2010: Lab 24 LD 1.  2012: Lab 18 Ind 4 Con 1 LD 1 SI 1
WIN: Wigan Independent Network, SI: Standish Independent.

This is another council where Labour have never lost overall control.  Various independent groups seem to be providing the main opposition at the moment.  The Tories suffered a bit in 2010 from a split with the "Wigan Independent Conservatives", which partly explains Labour's exceptionally good result that year.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

SELNEC (plus Saddleworth), hoping that Andrew Teale will fill in the details a bit.

A good analysis; I may steal some of it for an English Elections post I'm planning on the Greater Manchester councils in the leadup to May.

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Sadly I am no longer the Chancellor of the Duchy of Smithills:  I am currently squatting in the Duchy of Radcliffe North while I endeavour to purchase my way into the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever.

The Tory wards are the ones you might expect - middle-class areas all except for Heaton, which is posh - million-pound homes off Chorley New Road and all that jazz.  The Lib Dem collapse in Horwich appears to be mostly down to the retirement of the main campaigners a couple of years ago.  Smithills has stayed in the Lib Dem column thanks to the usual brand of pavement and pothole politics; the local party spent a fair chunk of the ward's pothole repair fund one year resurfacing the road I used to live on.  It's bizarre that Westhoughton is still competitve, but then Westhoughton is a bizarre place anyway.

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The Labour control came on the toss of a coin after Ramsbottom ward was a tie in the 2011 election.  The Lib Dem seats were all in Prestwich and specifically Holyrood ward, which has a similar demographic profile to the more middle-class parts of South Manchester but is cheaper than Didsbury; the yellow peril broke into the other Prestwich wards in the Brown years on the back of a successful campaign against the closure of Prestwich High School (which, incidentally, educated me).  The 2012 Tory campaign was a disaster from start to finish, exemplified by the arrest of the former council leader and another senior Tory councillor on suspicion of corruption; no charges were ever brought, but by then the election was over.  It says something about the 2012 Bury election that the Tories contrived to lose Tottington (a middle-class town in the hills above Bury and normally a Tory banker) while holding the more marginal seat of Pilkington Park (the posh and Jewish half of Whitefield).

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The Independent Labour councillor left the party in protest at the council approving a planning application to build a football stadium for the Judean People's FrontFC United of Manchester in his ward.  He's not up for election until 2015.  I can't see any other result than another redwash here.

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Twas not always thus - when Labour ran the country the Tory seats in the council were in Chadderton, which isn't quite as bad as Oldham.  Although comparing Chadderton with Oldham is a bit like the difference between getting killed by five lions and getting killed by six lions.

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I doubt it has anything to do with Cyril Smith.  First, the allegations against Smith had been going round the town for donkey's years (my dad was aware of them when he lived in Littleborough in the late 1970s); also, I'm fairly sure the Lib Dem group was already starting to fall apart before Smith died.  I have no idea what's been going on in Rochdale, although unlike Manchester I do think it's possible that the Lib Dems could win a ward this time round.

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Indeed.  The Labour mayor isn't up until 2016 and not much is going to change here.  Walkden South is the only ward that looks competitive.

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It's worth noting that a lot of the Stockport wards are marginal, so things could change rather more quickly here than you might expect.

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(yawns) Next.

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If their performance in the Wythenshawe by-election is anything to go by, the local Tories could be in trouble.  I have a feeling that there will be wailage and gnashage of Tory teeth here come 23rd May.

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The Wigan Independent Conservatives and the Standish Independents are the same familyparty.  The remaining Tory seat, bizarrely, is in the Leigh constituency.  This is one area where Labour stand to lose seats; they underperformed badly in Wigan in 2012.

[Harry Hayfield]

I'd be very interested in your thoughts on Nuneaton and Bedworth

[You kip if you want to...]

68 councils counting on the Thursday, 93 leaving it until the Friday. EU results come on the Sunday along with the rest of the continent.

Also, candidate nominations will be announced by councils this Friday.

[joevsimp]

I'd be very interested in your thoughts on Nuneaton and Bedworth

the Greens picked up a county cuncil seat there last year and will hope to gain one on the district council this year,

[YL]

Curious goings on in Sheffield.  There are no Tory candidates in the two marginal Hallam wards, Crookes and Stannington, nor in three other wards in the city (one of them being due to incompetence: their candidate's proposer and seconder had already nominated the UKIP candidate).  Their vote had fallen to very low levels in Crookes and Stannington, but this looks suspiciously like an attempt to help the Lib Dems in Clegg's seat.

In addition, the leader of the Lib Dem group on the council is not defending his Broomhill seat, but fighting Crookes instead.

Some good news: there are no BNP candidates at all in South Yorkshire.  Though there are a few English Democrats, and no doubt some of the UKIP candidates have some rather disturbing views.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Ugh, I wish I was in Crookes or Broomhill with a more competitive race. I'm in Fulwood, which is pretty much as close as you're going to get to a "safe Lib Dem" ward in the North.

Might head down to do some volunteering for the Greens.

[You kip if you want to...]

For anyone who doesn't know how much of a joke the Liverpool LibDems have become, here's the candidate numbers for the city.

Labour, Tory, continuity Liberals - 30 full slate
Green - 29
UKIP - 19
LibDems - 18
TUSC - 12

This is the party that ran the city for 12 years up to 2010 and is now the official opposition. The Greens or the old Liberal Party could well become the second largest party.

[EPG]

Hardly surprising that they would wither in England's most culturally left-wing city and retrench to their strong areas. Could the Greens become the second-biggest party?

[doktorb]

Wikipedia page for my home city's elections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_City_Council_election,_2014

[You kip if you want to...]

Hardly surprising that they would wither in England's most culturally left-wing city and retrench to their strong areas. Could the Greens become the second-biggest party?

The Greens only really have strength in one ward (St Michael's), where they should gain their third seat this year, making them tied with the old Lib party which should hold 3 as well.

The LibDems should be left with about 3 as well, being generous. They should win 1 ward (Church) and have a fighting chance in another (Woolton), but beyond that, I'm stuck to see any areas of strength left for them.

The reasons for their death in the city go beyond the Coalition though. Their administration before 2010 had become toxic and they've done nothing but fight ever since.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well they were basically a populist anti-local-Labour coalition. Liverpool Labour was a sad joke by the 1990s and not terribly hard to oust from power. As soon as some kind of order and credibility was restored - which took an embarrassingly long period of time, actually - normality was always likely to assert itself.

[joevsimp]

Hardly surprising that they would wither in England's most culturally left-wing city and retrench to their strong areas. Could the Greens become the second-biggest party?

as others have said, we should clear up the final st michaels seat, at the moment we're just too far behind even in the wards we're in second place in, and with Labour riding so high that's unlikely to change

[You kip if you want to...]

Hardly surprising that they would wither in England's most culturally left-wing city and retrench to their strong areas. Could the Greens become the second-biggest party?

as others have said, we should clear up the final st michaels seat, at the moment we're just too far behind even in the wards we're in second place in, and with Labour riding so high that's unlikely to change

I'd suggest Liverpool's too socially conservative for the Greens, except their pocket in St. Michael's.

The Greens are in with a shout of their first seat on the Wirral though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm writing profiles for the 33 London council elections at the moment (currently on Redbridge). These will steal most of the local election thunder, as London last elected its seats back in 2010, which might as well be decades ago. In that election Labour, boosted by a high turn-out, did fantastic, all things considering.

The main issue in the capital is cost of living. Rents are spiralling, housing stock is in decline, cash-starved councils have increased parking fees through the roof and the bedroom tax has hit inner boroughs hard.

Labour will hope to avenge their high profile Mayoral loss in 2012. Sadiq Khan, the Shadow Justice Minister, has announced plans for a "suburban strategy" that seeks to gain control in Croydon, Barnet, Hammersmith, Harrow, Redbridge and others; as well as defeat the controversial independent Mayor of Tower Hamlets.

The Lib Dems will likely be squeezed out of many places entirely, especially in Haringey, Camden, Islington, Hackney and other areas with heavy university educated or student populations. (Duh) Of their two councils, Sutton is close as you're going to get to safe Lib Dem control, but Kingston is in dire danger of a Tory takeover.

UKIP are relatively weak in the capital - young, ethnically diverse and well-educated people are not really in their target lists. However, they do hope to target grey Tory voters in outermost boroughs like Havering; as well as former Labour voters in white working-class former BNP target Barking and Dagenham.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Generally speaking things party figures say about 'targets' in local elections is roughly 98% bullsh!t.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd suggest Liverpool's too socially conservative for the Greens, except their pocket in St. Michael's.

Theoretically they could expand into other middle class and gentrified wards. Of course there aren't many of those in Liverpool, but the popular perception of the city as one giant slab of proletarian assertiveness isn't entirely accurate either (even if, sure, the majority of the city is like that. And that's why it's great).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In London it looks as though Havering and Harrow will be very 'fun' as both have been the site of the nastiest civil wars in the capital since Brent and Hackney in the 1990s. In Harrow a large group of (Indian mostly) councillors broke away from the Party and formed an alliance with the Tories, in Havering the Tories have been ripping themselves to pieces in a spectacularly nasty manner. A lot of blood on the municipal carpets.