London 2008

[afleitch]

Lol @ turnout.

Lol @ turnout indeed. But at least we gave voters the chance to participate in an open primary.

[Hash]

The Evening Standard claim they've got a poll putting Johnson at 47%.

Any other numbers for this poll?

[afleitch]

The Evening Standard claim they've got a poll putting Johnson at 47%.

Any other numbers for this poll?

YouGov polled Boris 49% and Ken on 37%

[StateBoiler]

Lol @ turnout.

Lol @ turnout indeed. But at least we gave voters the chance to participate in an open primary.

Why don't you do it for MPs then?

[afleitch]

Lol @ turnout.

Lol @ turnout indeed. But at least we gave voters the chance to participate in an open primary.

Why don't you do it for MPs then?

In alot of selections we do; Hammersmith for example.

When I say 'we'; I mean the Tories.

[Adlai Stevenson]

It seems Livingston is really struggling but can anyone actually conceive of Johnson being elected Mayor, I mean honestly, it would be embarrassing for London.  Brian Paddick is doing pretty well.  The Standard poll had him getting 42% of the second preference votes, and his 12% is arguably taking away from Ken.  If Paddick's 12% was added to Livingston's 37% he would be tied with Johnson on 49%.  The Livingston campaign really need to start hitting Johnson hard and attempt to define him as inexperienced and untrustworthy; and they need to stop the flow of scandals - he is clearly being dogged by them.  Livingston has dropped from 45% to 39% to 37%, while Johnson has rised from 39% to 44% to 49%.  Paddick has raised his vote from 7% to 12% but seems to remaining static. 

[Jake]

Is Boris Johnson being elected in the realm of possibility?

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Is this now Boris's to lose? Or do his numbers stem from growing Conservative support (I'm guessing it does not)


Can we please not try to hack too much on Boris, I know he's a buffoon, but it's on purpose and we all know he's an intelligent man, he's shown he's serious by the swipe (albeit the stuttering mumble he has) he took at Brown last week, I think to try to attack him on a personal basis (minus his numerous personal "scandals") would be a mistake and a severe underestimation of him.

[afleitch]

It seems Livingston is really struggling but can anyone actually conceive of Johnson being elected 

About 49% of Londoners polled it seems

I think they are just tired of Ken's 'jobs for the boys' (and 'money for the boys') city hall.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this now Boris's to lose? Or do his numbers stem from growing Conservative support (I'm guessing it does not)

No and no. What's happening is that Livingstone's administration has been hit by some scandals (very) recently, somewhat tarnishing his personal popularity.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Greenies have formally endorsed second preferencing Livingstone.

[Keystone Phil]

What are the chances of crazy hair winning?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are the chances of crazy hair winning?

0%. Richard Barnbrook has no chance of becoming Mayor (thank God).

[Harry Hayfield]

The chance of a Con gain in the London Mayoral Elections is very high indeed.

GE 2005: 4.5% swing to Con in London
LE 2006: Con gain Ealing on a 10% swing

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LE 2006: Con gain Ealing on a 10% swing

Local issues inflated the size of that swing a great deal. But in general the 2006 results are pretty encouraging for the Tories; a solid showing in suburbia and excellent results in those areas gentrified by financial types. The good news for Labour (and there is some) is that results in most traditionally Labour areas were better than expected (the main exceptions were almost all race-related). The bad news there is that Livingstone isn't actually very good at turning out the vote in such places. An old-fashioned Morrisonian machine hack would probably have a better chance of re-election than him against someone like Johnson (but not against a Norris-type candidate, oddly enough).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ward map of Enfield & Haringey last time round; it's the most marginal seat on the GLA (McCartney won by less than two thousand votes. Curiously it was more marginal in 2000 than Brent & Harrow and was an open seat; I suspect that picking an Enfield-based candidate payed off for Labour).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The results here were... strange... in so many different ways...

[Hash]

Which party was Webb? RESPECT?

[Serenity Now]

Which party was Webb? RESPECT?

UKIP, the ward he won is in Havering after all!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which party was Webb? RESPECT?

UKIP, the ward he won is in Havering after all!

...and Brown was Residents Association. The two wards he won both voted strongly for Norris in the Mayoral election (Upminster especially).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[afleitch]

London Assembly constituencies are nicely gerrymandered against LDs.  The five yellow seats are in three separate constituencies. 

I tend to find Londons seats the most 'sane' of any of the old mets (with the exception of the West Midlands) What hurts the Lib Dems in some parts of London is that their support is not as concentrated as Tory or Labour support, which is still based along class/economic lines.

They are in danger of loosing seats, on the Westminster level in swathes of the 'Thames Wedge'; straddling the river from Surbiton through to the City of London where the Tories made strides in 2005 (and some of their easiest targets are there next time round). It will be interesting to note Boris' support there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

London Assembly constituencies are nicely gerrymandered against LDs.  The five yellow seats are in three separate constituencies. 

True in a way (though the Croydon-Sutton pairing makes sense from a communities-of-interest point of view... but on the other hand, Hounslow with Richmond, Kingston etc is a little... ah...) but that's a partial product of the weird decision to have these huge multi-borough constituencies. And the PR element takes some of that away.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They are in danger of loosing seats, on the Westminster level in swathes of the 'Thames Wedge'; straddling the river from Surbiton through to the City of London where the Tories made strides in 2005 (and some of their easiest targets are there next time round). It will be interesting to note Boris' support there.

Livingstone did weirdly well for a Labour candidate in that area in 2004, running far ahead of the more normal Labour candidates and lists.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Livingstone also ran miles ahead of the rest of Labour in the trendier parts of this area (Bayswater and so on).