London 2008

[minionofmidas]

The “supplementary vote” has never mattered much before in London, where Mr Livingstone has won the past two elections comfortably. (By contrast, three of England's 12 other elected mayors have at one point taken office only thanks to second preferences.)

Uh. Ken Livingstone was twice elected on supplementary votes.

EDIT: Correction- tricky wording there. Although Ken Livingstone never won a majority of the vote, his first pref. tally was in both 2000 and 2004 higher than Steven Norris' post-transfer total (in 2000, it was actually higher than Norris' first and second pref.s total. In 2004 it wasn't - but that's because you have to subtract the 1.Ken, 2.Norris votes from that.)

[afleitch]

Fact of the day - Brian Paddick says he became a 'born again' Christian at the age of 24.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

The rage you leftists have over all this is really unsettling, don't go BRTD on us.

[Ben.]

YouGov have Boris up 11%... not much movement in their poll to be honest (Boris +2/ Ken -2 on first preferences and a little movement on second preferences).

Its worth bearing in mind that no UK pollster has a good record polling the London races.

[afleitch]

YouGov have Boris up 11%... not much movement in their poll to be honest (Boris +2/ Ken -2 on first preferences and a little movement on second preferences).

Its worth bearing in mind that no UK pollster has a good record polling the London races.

True. If anything, it's a battle of the polsters and of methodology. YouGov are really trying to prove that they can poll well in sub national polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In theory they should do better in and around London than the rest of the country. Then again, in theory, what they do shouldn't work at all... and yet it often has done, more or less.

[Harry Hayfield]

You Gov / Sky News Exit Poll 2004

London Mayor (First Preferences)
Livingstone 35% Norris 31% Hughes 18% Others 16%

London Mayor (Second Preferences)
Livingstone 53% Norris 47%

London Assembly
Lab 24% Con 32% Lib Dem 19% UKIP 10% Greens 8% Others 7%

Actual London Mayor (First Preferences)
Livingstone 37% Norris 29% Hughes 15% Others 19%

Actual London Mayor (Second Preferences)
Livingstone 55% Norris 45%

Actual London Assembly
Lab 25% Con 31% Lib Dem 18% Greens 8% UKIP 10% Others 8%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A taste of the London Evening Boris:

[afleitch]

A taste of the London Evening Boris:

You should read the pleading commentary in the Guardiken

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A taste of the London Evening Boris:

You should read the pleading commentary in the Guardiken

I did! They were so obviously faking their unhappiness at "having" to endorse him that it was almost funny

[afleitch]

Ken on Kate Hoey - 'a sort of semi-detached member of the Labour Party in recent years'

Oh really and what what were you Ken

As much as I would welcome Hoey to the Tory front benches (along with Frank Field and Gisela Stuart) I don't think she should have the whip withdrawn despite demands. Tories advised Brown in his hallowed 'Govt of all the talents' (and left/quit unceremoniously...) and their position as Conservative MP's was not under threat. If Hoey wants to advise Boris on sport should she win then it's a step in the right direction by our party too.

[jeron]

Poor Londoners. They can choose between a moron and an idiot.

[Joe Republic]

Poor Londoners. They can choose between a moron and an idiot.

But due to the electoral system, the beauty of it is that they can pick both the moron and the idiot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ken on Kate Hoey - 'a sort of semi-detached member of the Labour Party in recent years'

Oh really and what what were you Ken

Expelled!

[StateBoiler]

So what will be the combined Tory/Labour first-preference vote? Any predictions?

Are Londoners upset at their choices? I read an article today that said that two longtime Tory leaders in the Telegraph stated that Boris Johnson is doomed to failure and beyond the jokes there's not much there. Is that an accurate reading of the population or just two geriatrics no one pays attention to?

[Silent Hunter]

So what will be the combined Tory/Labour first-preference vote? Any predictions?

Are Londoners upset at their choices? I read an article today that said that two longtime Tory leaders in the Telegraph stated that Boris Johnson is doomed to failure and beyond the jokes there's not much there. Is that an accurate reading of the population or just two geriatrics no one pays attention to?

80%, give or take 3%.

Well, I'm slightly unhappy at some of Ken Livingstone's actions.

Who were the Tories?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be amazing if it were as high as 80%. Which isn't to say that such a figure is unlikely.

[The Mikado]

God Bless London...because with its electoral politics, it really needs it.

Another term of Red Ken, or another moron almost as colorful.  What a choice!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, YouGov is back down to earth; their final poll (done this morning) gives Johnson a smaller lead (about 6pts or so). Ditto for the GLA I think.

Though by this point all that matters is GOTV and the whims of third-and-minor party voters...

[afleitch]

Is it May 1st or April 1st?

Harry's Place claims that 'a little birdie' has said Ken used to be a Young Conservative in Streatham in the 60's.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Less than an hour to go.

Is it May 1st or April 1st?

Harry's Place claims that 'a little birdie' has said Ken used to be a Young Conservative in Streatham in the 60's.

Little birdies tend to be wrong. Though IIRC his parents were Tories and Streatham was a very Tory area back then so who knows.

[JohnFKennedy]

London is a lot more valuable than a Ming vase.

[afleitch]

ConHome...strangely and prematurely...call it for Boris.

[Verily]

Exit poll leak said 56-44 for Boris, which I expect is the reason.