InTrade Presidential odds

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Intrade has a new market out: "Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election"

currently trading at 13.9

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I strongly doubt that it is going to happen, but the fact that it's being discussed isn't good for McCain

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(And, perhaps, for the first time ever, GOP to win the Presidency is trading above Dems to win the presidency.)

not at all.  this was the case for much of 2005, IIRC.

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Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

I think McCain dying from now - 1/20 is more likely than that.

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Biden is easily the third most likely person to be the next President. It's the electoral college tie + hung House scenario.

The Democrats do only need 26 of their 27 state delegations to get an outright majority in the House.

This group includes Tennessee, West Virginia, South Dakota, North Dakota, North Carolina, Arkansas, Mississippi... while some of those delegations are likely to support Obama, I wouldn't want to place bets that no more than one of Lincoln Davis, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, Heath Shuler, Gene Taylor, and Travis Childers decides not to vote against the large majority of his state and possibly his district.

don't forget the Dems are likely to net around ten seats in the upcoming House elections.  I haven't analyzed how that impacts the state delegations, but it isn't going to hurt.