Verily
Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663
Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78
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« on: November 17, 2008, 11:41:57 PM » |
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Not in 2012. Maybe by 2016, almost certainly at least on the fringe of competitive states by 2020, think Missouri in 2004 (but that assumes relative stability in demographic change, which is a dangerous assumption to make for 12 years hence).
Obama might make a push there anyway if he's very popular. But it should be at least ten points more Republican than the nation in 2012, which means Obama could win it in a landslide, but it certainly wouldn't be a battleground.
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