Progressive Election 2008 (II)---COMPLETED

[Platypus]

It's baaack!

After a tight primary, the Republicans nominate Governor Jodi Rell of Connecticut for President, the first female on the top of the ballot. She chooses the Missouri legend, Kit Bond, as Vice-Presidential candidate on the GOP ticket.

In the Democratic primary, Hilary fights hard, but after the moderates unite behind Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia, and the left of the party splits between Hilary and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, Mark Warner wins the nomination. It is suggested that Warner did a deal with other moderates during the primary, and this suspicion is furthered by his choice of Senator Bill Nelson as VP.

Day 1: Vermont heads to the polls, and whilst Rell manages to close the gap, Warner/Nelson still holds on for a win.

Warner leads, 3-0.

Day 2: Texas heads to the polls, and supports Rell/Bond. Analysts see this as an indication that the GOP base is not 'scared' of a woman president, althought there is a dip, possibly because she's not a native son. Or daughter, for that matter.

Rell leads, 34-3.

Day 3: Mississippi votes, Rendell wins, but again with a slight dip from 2004.

Rendell leads, 40-3.

Day 4: Wisconsin votes, and it's tight. Turnout is over 60%, unusual for an early state, and both candidates are well liked. By 6,212 votes, Warner wins the state. Because he was so behind in the electoral college, the democrats were more motivated to head out; that's one of the (few) problems with leading in the EC in this type of election.

Rell leads, 40-13.

Days 5+6. Weekend. Warner spends it all at home in Virginia, whilst Nelson floats around Nebraska and Colorado. Rell spends her weekend in Colorado, and Bond in Nebraska.

Day 7: Nebraska heads to the polls, and easily supports Rell, with a slightly increased margin from 2004.

Rell leads, 45-13.

At the end of week 1:

[Joe Republic]

It's Jodi Rell, unless you're predicting she marries Gov. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania.

Very good TL though, Hugh, keep it up.

[Platypus]

well, I did write this at quarter to one. Mental fart.

[Platypus]

Day 8: Idaho heads to the polls, giving Rell/Bond another 4 EVs.

Rell leads, 49-13.

Day 9: Massachusetts heads to the polls, and Rell makes a significant dip in the gap, but still loses 53%-47%.

Rell leads, 49-25.

Day 10: Virginia votes. Whilst closer then Warner hoped, he still wins his home state 52%-48%.

Rell leads, 49-38.

Day 11: Colorado heads to the polls, and Rell wins by a surprisingly comfortable margin, 56%-44%.

Rell leads, 58-38.

Days 12+13: Weekend. Both candidates spend Saturday in Nevada and Sunday in Minchigan, where the first Debate is held at Michigan State, in a "Townhall" format. Both candidates do well, but Rell wins the nation-wide poll. Warner, however, is considered to win by the majority of Michiganders. Bond spends his weekend in Nevada; Nelson follows Warner over both days.

Day 14: Nevada heads to the polls, and Rell wins 52%-48%.

Rell leads, 63-38.

After two weeks:

[Platypus]

Day 15: South Carolina votes, and gives Rell/Bond 8 EVs, but Warner is able to close the gap by 3%. Analysts say causes include gender, but also the fact that Rell is a New Englander, and Warner a southerner; these influences aren't enough to shift the state, however.

Rell leads, 71-38.

Day 16: Hawai'i votes, and gives Warner an easy win, with an increased percentage from 2004.

Day 17: Michigan heads to the polls, and is expected to be close. With a high turnout, Miochiganders support Warner by 13,808 votes.

Rell leads, 71-59.

Day 18: Illinois heads to the polls, and gives Warner another easy win. Momentum seems to be on his side, and he jumps into the lead for the first time since day 1.

Warner leads, 80-71.

Days 19+20: The weekend. Warner and Nelson spend their weekend in West Virginia, whilst Rell is in Missouri with Bond.

Day 21: Missouri heads to the polls, and supports Rell/Bond 60-40.

Rell leads, 82-80.

After three weeks:

[Platypus]

Day 22: Louisiana votes, and Rell again wins a southern state with a slightly reduced margin. The Democrats hopes of winning the south with a southerner seem not to be accomplishable.

Rell leads, 91-80.

Day 23: West Virginia heads to the polls. Despite pumping heaps of cash into it, Warner still loses West Virginia-by 836 votes.

Rell leads, 96-80.

Day 24: DC votes, giving Warner an easy 3 EVs.

Rell leads, 96-83.

Day 25: Wyoming votes, giving Rell her easy 3 EVs.

Rell leads, 99-83.

Days 26+27: The weekend. The first VP debate is held in Albuquerque, and Bond trounces Nelson. Rell spends her weekend in Oregon; Warner spends Saturday in New Mexico and Sunday in Oregon.

Day 28: New Mexico votes, and supports Rell by 5,269 votes. The momentum has shifted from Warner to Rell.

Rell leads, 104-83.

After four weeks:

[Platypus]

Day 29: Warner wins Maryland with almost 60% of the vote.

Rell leads, 104-93.

Day 30: Whilst Rell manages to close the gap, Warner ekes out a Victory in Oregon.

Rell leads, 104-100.

Day 31: Rell thumps Warner in South Dakota.

Rell leads, 107-100.

Day 32: Kentucky votes. Whilst Warner closes the gap in yet another southern state, but Rell wins 53%-47%.

Rell leads, 115-100.

Days 33+34: The weekend. Warner spends Saturday in New Hampshire and Sunday in North Carolina. Nelson spends his whole weekend in New Hampshire, as does Rell. Bond spends his weekend in North Carolina and Arkansas.

Day 35: North Carolina votes, and gives Rell another win in the south, yet again with a reduced margin. She still wins 53%-47%, however.

Rell leads, 130-100.

After five weeks:

[Flying Dog]

More!

[Platypus]

Day 36: Indiana votes, giving Rell an easy 11 EVs.

Rell leads, 141-100.

Day 37: New Hampshire heads to the polls, and with a massive turnout of 71%, supports Rell by 4,388 votes.

Rell leads, 145-100.

Day 38: Warner thanks some sort of deity as he pulls off a very unexpected win in Arkansas by less then 0.5%.

Rell leads, 145-106.

Day 39: Utah votes, and Rell's campaign is back on track with a whacking of Warner.

Rell leads, 150-106.

Days 40+41: The weekend. With the next week hosting three big swing states, the second Presidential debate in Tampa is watched closely by over 180 million Americans, and many millions more worldwide. Warner is considered to win, something which he had to do to keep his campaign alive. He spends the Saturday in Florida and Sunday in Pennsylvania, whilst Nelson campaigns non-stop in his homestate. Rell also spends the entire weekend in Florida, whilst Bond spends the Saturday in Iowa and Sunday in Pennsylvania.

Day 42: Iowa heads to the polls, giving Rell a surprisingly easy victory, 54-46.

Rell leads, 157-106.

After six weeks:

[Flying Dog]

keep going

[Platypus]

No, I'm leaving you with a sense of suspense about the next update, which will include Pennsylvania, Alaska, Delaware, Florida and Montana.

[Flying Dog]

No, I'm leaving you with a sense of suspense about the next update, which will include Pennsylvania, Alaska, Delaware, Florida and Montana.

When will you post then?

[Platypus]

30 mins? maybe longer. Not more then an hour.

[George W. Hobbes]

Hugh,

I always love these things...keep it up.

[Platypus]

Day 43: Pennsylvania votes. Whilst close, Rell pulls ahead late in the night and wins by just 2,381 votes.

Rell leads, 178-106.

Day 44: Alaska votes, and gives Rell another victory.

Rell leads, 181-106.

Day 45: Delaware heads to the polls, and gives Warner 3 Evs by a large margin.

Rell leads, 181-109.
 
Day 46: Florida votes. Despite polls calling it for Rell by a small margin, Warner wins when the turnout is over 65%, due at least in part to Nelson.

Rell leads, 181-136.

Days 47+48: The Weekend. Both candidates spend Saturday in New Jersey, before Rell moves onto Maine on Sunday. Warner stays in New Jersey, whilst Nelson spends his weekend in Maine. Bond is in Tennessee.

Day 49: Montana votes, and Rell celebrates a further 3 EVs.

After seven weeks:

[Platypus]

Day 50: Oklahoma votes, and Rell inches closer to the 200 EV mark, with a resounding win.

Rell leads, 191-136.

Day 51: Whilst Rell manages to close the margin to 52-48, Warner wins New Jersey and it's 15 EVs.

Rell leads, 191-151.

Day 52: With a rather narrow win in Tennessee, Rell passes 200 EVs.

Rell leads, 202-151.

Day 53: Maine heads to the polls. Whilst it is clear that Warner has narrowly won the first congressional district, and Rell the second, the at-large result is still being confirmed.

Rell leads, 203-152.

Days 54+55: Nelson pounds the pavements in Minnesota, whilst Warner spends his weekend in Minnesota on Saturday and Rhode Island on Sunday. Bond focuses on confirming support in North Dakota, whilst Rell tries to get the good people of Rhode Island to vote for her. On Saturday afternoon, Maine-at-large is called for Rell by 537 votes.

Day 56: Whilst Rell was the first to reach 200, Warner soon follows with a win in California, and takes the lead for a third time.

Warner leads, 207-205.

After eight weeks:

[Platypus]

Day 57: Rhode Island votes, and narrowly confirms it's democratic inclination.

Warner leads, 211-205.

Day 58: Alabama heads to the polls. Warner brings it down to 52-48 (!!!), but Rell holds on for the win.

Rell leads, 214-211.

Day 59: Minnesota votes. Warner wins with a 62% turnout, as he takes the lead again. Republicans start to get a bit anxious; Democrats a bit more confident.

Warner leads, 221-214.

Day 60: Over the border, North Dakotans vote and give Rell 3 EVs, but it's not enough to put her into the lead for the weekend.

Warner leads, 221-217.

Days 61+62: The Weekend. The final Presidential and Vice-Presidential debates are held, in Cleveland and Hartford. Bond again thumps Nelson, but Warner does the same to Rell. Warner spends his whole weekend in Ohio, whilst Rell flies in and out of the state just for the debate, spending the remainder of her time in Connecticut.

Day 63: Rell's homestate of Connecticut supports her with a resounding margin of 59-41. All momentum Warner had from the debate is lost.

Rell leads, 224-221.

After nine weeks:

[Platypus]

Day 64: Kansas heads to the polls, and Rell strengthens her lead.

Rell leads, 230-221.

Day 65: Arizona votes, and supports Rell 55-45.

Rell leads, 240-221.

Day 66: Ohio votes. Whilst as close as 2004, the result remains a Republican victory. GOPpers everywhere start to feel confident they will get 4 more years.

Rell leads, 260-221.

Day 67: New Yorkers head to the polls, and give Warner a chance at victory.

Rell leads, 260-252.

Days 68+69: The final weekend. Republicans are sure of vitory in Georgia, and pump all their money, candidates and igureheads into Washington. The Democrats aren't so confident of victory there, but the only way they can win is to win both Washington and Georgia. They put all their efforts into Georgia, and hoped Washington wouldn't turn...

Day 70: Washington heads to the polls, and...stays true to the Democrats! Warner wins the state by 1,288 votes-could he have won the Presidency by that much?

Warner leads, 263-260.

That night, analysts are everywhere. Georgia is pumped, with thousands of people pumped in for both parties. Polls put it at a slight Rell leads, but Warner has been closing steadily over the past three days, and has done better then polls suggested in every southern state but his own. Could "The Southern Strategy" actually work for the Democrats? Find out on the next installment of...The Progressive Election 2008 (II)!

[jokerman]

Day 23: West Virginia heads to the polls. Despite pumping heaps of cash into it, Warner still loses West Virginia-by 836 votes.

WTF??!?!?!?!?!?!?

[Max Power]

Good job, Hugh! Keep up the good work!!

[Platypus]

remember Preston, lots can change in a week. Considering this has 10 of them, one states' results are not necessarily an indicator of other sates-ie, Warner can win Arkansas but lose West Virginia if he's having a bit of a rough trot at the time.

I forgot to put the map in last time, so here it is:



Final state shortly.

[Platypus]

Day 71: The nation, and the world, waits with baited breath as Georgians vote. Lines stretch for hundreds of meters in some polling stations, and turnout is expected to reach a record high.  That night, they are only able to count 58% of the vote, before restarting the next day. At midnight, Rell leads Warner 51-49.

Day 72: Counting recommences at 7am. By Midday the result is known. With a turnout of 85%, the people of Georgia have chosen the next President.



The first female President.




Jodi Rell of Connecticut wins by 34,199 votes.


Final map:

Rell wins 275-263.

I wonder who the challenger will be in 2012? Will Rell be re-elected, making four GOP terms in a row, and 7 of the last 9?