Malaysia election 2013

[jaichind]

Malaysian general election must be held no later than May 28 2013 and most likely end of April.

Demographics
Malays   60%
Chinese 23%
Indian     7%
Tribals    10%

Two main blocks face each other

Ruling BN (Barisan Nasional)
1)  UMNO United Malays National Organization - Party 0f mostly Malays and Malay nationalism
2)  MCA Malaysian Chinese Association - Establishment Chinese party
3)  MIC Malaysian Indian Congress - Establishment Indian Party
4) Various regional parties from  Sarawak or Sabah which are mostly tribals

Opposition PR (People's Alliance)
1) PRK People's Justice Party - Secular/Liberal Catchall opposition party but mostly Malays
2) PAS Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party - Islamic party for Malays
3) DAP - Democratic Action Party - Chinese opposition party
4) Various opposition regional parties from  Sarawak or Sabah which are mostly tribals

Some key facts.  

1) BN has always ruled Malaysia since independence.  Last election in 2008 was the closest ever where BN failed to capture a 2/3 majority and only won the popular vote 50-47 over PR.
2) PR leader/PM candidate and also PRK chariman is Anwar who used to a member of UMMO back in the 1980s and 1990s.  He was the heir apparent but had a falling out with PM Mahathir Mohammad was ousted and locked up on charges of sodomy (which is illegal in Malaysia.)
 Anwar is realy the Ozawa of Malaysian politics.  He was an Islamist anti-UMMO radical in his youth then shocked his followers when he went into UMMO and then became number #2 in UMMO.  Then in a bid for power failed and was locked up.  Since leaving jail he put togeather an unlikely coalition of secular liberal Malays, Chinese and conservative Islamists.
3) MCA has anti-communist roots and is really the Malaysian wing of the right wing KMT of the Chinese political scene.  It joined with UMMO mostly to stop the Communists in Malaysia
4) DAP is really the Malaysian wing of the Singapore PAP.  It has left wing roots but broke with the Communists back in the 1950s.  
5) Various Sarawak or Sabah regional parities tend to go with BN to get government subsidies.  With PR maybe able to win this time some of them are going with PR.
6) PAS used to be much more radical in terms of Islamic extremism but has toned it down to be part of a coalition with secular Chinese and Malays.

Main change this time from 2008 is the Chinese vote which used to be split 50/50 between MCA and DAP now is going to the opposition perhaps 70/30 and could swing the election to PR.   UMMO leader and BN PM Najib Razak is much more popular than his party and if he can swing back enough Malay votes to UMMO from PAS and PRK, BN can still win.  It is expected that if somehow BN does not improve on 2008 election results (this is hard, I expect BN to win mostly because of gerrymandering but not improve on 2008) then Najib Razak might be forced to resign despite winning reelection.

Recent issues (corruption scandal in Sarawak, citizenship-for-votes issue in Sabah,
discontent in Pahang and Johor) has prompted me to raise the potential for
an opposition PR coalition win from impossible, to small (10-20% probability)

However, my base case remains the BN coalition will retain government
but with less seats (from 137 now, down to 120-125 or 55-57% of parliament). I
expect non-UMNO BN component parties to bear the brunt of losses, meaning
UMNO’s representation in parliament could be stable or higher – this would support
my expectation that PM Najib will retain his position and be safe from challenge despite what the rumors say about Najib if BN did not improve (namely UMNO will improve so that is what counts)

A wildcard scenario is that the Islamic party PAS, currently part of PR,
could forge an alliance with UMNO post-elections. This would effectively pit a Malay
dominated government against Chinese-led opposition.

An interesting observation is that PM Najib has adopted a “presidential” style of
campaigning i.e. he knows that he is far more popular (60%+ approval rating) than
his party UMNO (40%+ approval rating), especially among the non-Malay voters.

A weak showing by BN (especially if UMNO also fares badly) would make Najib
vulnerable to a challenge – however, this would only happen 1-2 years on as a
potential challenger would need to marshal sufficient resources and support.

For regional elections being held the same time, I think there is a good chance PR could increase the number of states it governs – from 4 (out of 13) currently, to 6 via winning Perak (heavy concentration of Chinese so if Chinese vote swing for PR this will fall to PR) and Negri Sembilan. PR would then dominate the economically-vital west coast of Peninsula Malaysia.
Selangor, the richest state in Malaysian, will see a close contest but it should stay
in PR’s hands given their momentum + BN’s fragmented power base in the state.

SO net net, within BN, UMNO might gain seats but its Chinese and Indian allies will lose seats.  In PR, PAS and PRK would do well to hold their own and hope the Chinese swing toward DAP and gains from alliances in Sarawak or Sabah would be enough for them to win a majority.

From an international context, BN foreign policy outlook is mostly pro-PRC relative to the US and is highly supportive of economic integration with PRC.  The PRC is for sure for BN from a strategic and investment point of view.  It is ironic that what might push BN out of power is the Chinese vote.

[DC Al Fine]

I find it really funny that the parties put their main ethnic group in the party name.

[Benj]

Who do Indians who oppose the government vote for? Or are there very few such voters?

[jaichind]

Who do Indians who oppose the government vote for? Or are there very few such voters?

Mostly Anwar's PRK or DAP which despite its domination by Chinese claims to be multi-ethic.  But you are right that few Indians vote opposition.  I would say Indians break 7/3 or even 8/2 in favor of BN.

[jaichind]

One funny angle in Malaysian politics is their obsession with Israel.  Opposition leader Anwar is constantly accusing the Malaysian government, USA and Israel of being behind his own persecution.  It is pretty much a given in Malaysia that Jews control USA foreign policy ergo it is easy to spread such conspiracy theories.  As a counterattack pro-BN media has been talking about how Anwar has been getting support from John McCain's International Republican Institute  which is viewed as a front organization for Israel's interests.  Of course Anwar's arch-nemesis and former supporter former-PM Mahathir Mohammad, is famous for getting political mileage out of he being an ardent critic of Israel and US imperialism.  It is just funny how both ruling and opposition camps are accusing the other side of being in controlled by Israel.

[Vosem]

I don't quite get what the difference between the two groups is besides one having Islamists and the other not. I suppose on that basis BN is preferable, but it just sounds like a politics full of HP. Give Sabah back to the Philippines

If somebody could enlighten me more I would appreciate it.

One funny angle in Malaysian politics is their obsession with Israel.  Opposition leader Anwar is constantly accusing the Malaysian government, USA and Israel of being behind his own persecution.  It is pretty much a given in Malaysia that Jews control USA foreign policy ergo it is easy to spread such conspiracy theories.  As a counterattack pro-BN media has been talking about how Anwar has been getting support from John McCain's International Republican Institute  which is viewed as a front organization for Israel's interests.  Of course Anwar's arch-nemesis and former supporter former-PM Mahathir Mohammad, is famous for getting political mileage out of he being an ardent critic of Israel and US imperialism.  It is just funny how both ruling and opposition camps are accusing the other side of being in controlled by Israel.

Iran does something similar with Britain.

[jaichind]

There is not much difference between BN and PR.  See

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Malaysia’s Najib Unveils Election Manifesto Similar to Anwar’s
By Barry Porter and Manirajan Ramasamy

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak pledged to fight corruption, bring down living costs and build a pan-Borneo expressway if his coalition retains power in elections due in a matter of weeks.  These were all policies mooted by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim in his manifesto released six weeks earlier than the one Najib’s governing National Front unveiled at a weekend rally in Kuala Lumpur.

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One difference is that Anwar/PR is advocating the slow dismantling of the pro-Malay affirmative action that UMNO put in place decades ago.  These affirmative action programs are not just for jobs and spots in education but also quotas on how much Chinese/Indian ownership can exist for various industries.  Of course all they do is have dummy Malay owners who gets a cut and the Chinese/Indian owned enterprises still control Malay industry.  Chinese and Indian education/income was and still is much higher than Malays and tribals.  Anwar argues that this policy is not necessary anymore while BN claims it is still necessary as significant gaps still remain.    In reality even if PR comes into power it is unlikely they will remove this.  It would offend the Malay majority and PR's position is mostly there to attract Chinese votes.  Other than that both sides offer lots of free stuff for all sort of different voting blocks.  Given Malaysia still has a pretty dynamic economy whoever comes to power will most likely be able to realize most of these promises. 

[jaichind]

Election will be sunday May 5th

[jaichind]

Malaysian opposition leads in public support: poll

April 26 (AFP) -- Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim holds a slight edge over Malaysian premier Najib Razak ahead of a hotly anticipated election showdown on May 5, according to the latest opinion poll.
Anwar was considered the more qualified prime minister choice by 43 percent of voters, compared to 39 percent for Najib, who is battling to stave off the biggest electoral threat to the ruling coalition in its 56 years in power.  The survey released late Thursday by the University of Malaya's Centre for Democracy and Elections also found that 42 percent of respondents preferred the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (People's Pact) policy manifesto.
36 percent preferred that of the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition, while 22 percent were undecided, it said.
"It's neck-to-neck. That's very clear," said Redzuan Othman, director of the centre, adding that the opposition was "gaining ground" in public support.
However, large blocks of voters remained undecided on key points in the survey, conducted earlier in April on more than 1,400 respondents.
Redzuan said the margin of error was 3.5 percentage points.

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This poll does not include Sabah and Sarawak so it is skewed in favor of PR.  I figure taking that into account it is now a neck-to-neck in terms of popular vote.
I can now see PR winning the popular vote but BN winning more seats.  It seems that the Chinese vote is swinging hard toward the opposition due to their promise to reform the affirmative action system.  This will help PR in places like Jahor where BN swept the seats in 2008 despite a high concentration of Chinese.  BN gerrymandering and PR support being concentrated in urban centers bias the battle for seats in the BN favor.  Also the battle for alliance in Sabah and Sarawak ended with BN having an edge as the opposition vote will most likely be split there.  Overall BN is favored to win but the margin is getting smaller.
 

[jaichind]

With the BN in danger of losing the election it is funny to see it is starting to play the race card, both ways.  

BN warns the Chinese not to vote PR because if the opposition comes to power it will contain the Pan-Islamic PAS and then Islamic law will be imposed in the Chinese who are non-Islamic.  It urged the Chinese continue to support the affirmative action program or else there might be race riots.  

At the same time BN also appeals to the Malay warning that an opposition victory would mean the loss of Malay rights.  It also accuses the PAS of betraying the Malays by joining forces with the Chinese dominated DAP.  It even brought former PAS members to speak at BN rallies who then accused PAS of backpedaling on its Islamic agenda. At a BN rally Tuesday night, former PAS member Ustadz Abdullah Sa'amah exhorted Muslims to boycott PAS.  He quote is quite funny.  "PAS has bent to the will of DAP and PKR and, if you vote for PAS, there will be equal rights for all," the Kelantanese cleric said.
In other words,  if you vote opposition there will be equal rights for all when there should be unequal rights in favor of Malays.  At least they are transparent in their race baiting.  

[jaichind]

Malaysian election up for grabs: survey
May 3 (PTI) -- Malaysia's elections are too close to call just two days before hotly anticipated polls, according to a survey released today that indicated large numbers of voters were still undecided.
The upstart opposition led by Anwar Ibrahim looked set to win at least 89 of parliament's 222 seats in Sunday's vote, compared to 85 for premier Najib Razak's ruling coalition, said leading polling organisation Merdeka Centre.
But Merdeka Centre added that its analysis of all 222 constituencies indicated another 46 seats were up for grabs, with the final two likely going to independent candidates. At least 112 seats are required to form a government.
"The numbers point to neither side having a clear advantage. Whoever controls the majority of those (undecided) seats will win the country's elections on Sunday," the centre's director Ibrahim Suffian told AFP.
Malaysians have eagerly awaited the election ever since 2008 polls in which a newly united opposition made unprecedented inroads against the once-invincible ruling bloc that has tightly controlled the country since independence.
The Merdeka Centre also said a survey found that 42 per cent of respondents believed the opposition Pakatan Rakyat (People's Pact) alliance "should be given the chance to govern the country", while 41 per cent said "only Barisan Nasional can govern".
The rest of those polled were undecided or refused to respond.
However, Ibrahim said Barisan (National Front) still "has the edge" due to structural biases built into the electoral system by Barisan over the decades, and its control of traditional media.
Pakatan won 47 per cent of the nationwide vote in 2008, but just over a third of parliament.
The charismatic Anwar was once heir-apparent to Barisan but a 1998 power struggle ended with him jailed for six years on sex charges widely criticised as trumped up by his rival, then-premier Mahathir Mohamad.
Anwar joined the long-hapless opposition after his release in 2004, dramatically reversing its fortunes by uniting its disparate camps.
Amid pressure for reform, Najib has made limited liberalisation gestures and is campaigning on a promise of stability and continued economic growth.
Anwar, meanwhile, is pledging to root out rampant corruption, create a more open democracy and raise incomes.
For the survey, Merdeka Centre polled 1,600 voters between April 28 and May 2. (AFP) SAI 05032057

 

[jaichind]

My prediction

Vote Share
BN                    47
PR                    49

Seats
BN                  113
PR                  106
Others               3

Najib Razak might be ousted from power within UMNO and his succors will struggle to maintain a very weak government.  That PR came so close to victory means that Anwar Ibrahim will not step down as PR leader and instead play a game of horse trading to lure BN defectors to join PR and form a government.  There are always rumors but no proof of a underground pro-Anwar Ibrahim faction with UMNO from his days as #2 of UMNO.

[後援会]

Would the PR actually revise NEP? I've grown increasingly skeptical of such an outcome.

[jaichind]

Polls closed 1.5 hours ago and counting started 1 hour ago.  Results in coming in around 1 hour from now.  Turnout at historic high of 80%.  This is not a good sign for BN.

[jaichind]

Would the PR actually revise NEP? I've grown increasingly skeptical of such an outcome.

I agree.  PKR and DAP of the PK are running on changing NEP.  PAS is keeping silent as to show a united front but not supporting it as not to lose Malay votes.  I think the momentum in favor of revising NEF would be from Malay youth concerned about the inefficient affect on the economy that would vote for PRK and DAP.  There is always of a risk of PAS defection to BN in case of a PR victory over this issue. I hope this election could lead to the removal of NEP just like I hope that affirmative action be struck down once and for all in USA.

[jaichind]

With counting in progress, both BN and PR are leaking their projections.  BN claims 145 seats with 118 as their worst case scenario.  PR claims 125 seats with 100 as their worst case scenario. 

[jaichind]

Early count from Johor looking good for PR.  In  Pasir Gudang where in 2008 BN won 65-33 PRK is now ahead.  On the other hand in some places where PR won in 2008 BN is very close or ahead.  There might be a lot of turnover in this election.

[jaichind]

Johor is moving toward PR like I predicted so the overall results will be close.  The winning coaltion will be decided in Sabah and Sarawak.

[JohnCA246]

Keep us updated, I'll check in throughout the day.

[jaichind]

PK did make some progress in Johor, Sabah, and Sarawak.  In other states BN is doing better than expected.  Right now it is BN 80 and PK 37.  To be fair a lot of the 80 are in places like Sarawak and Sabah where BN won most of the seats but did lose some seats to PK.

[jaichind]

Looking at the seats PK has gained I think PK is en route to win about 100 seats but most likely no more.

[jaichind]

It is now BN 97 PK 49. 

[jaichind]

BN at 108 and set to win a majority.  PK at 55.

[jaichind]

PK is highlighting cases of possible fraud where multiple cases of indelible ink that can be removed.

[jaichind]

BN at 112 seats and a majority.