MA Senate - Special Election Results thread

[cinyc]

Alright -looks like I'm not going to get any help tonight and going to bed, so if someone wants to input the preliminary figures.

I'm kind of old-school and calculate by hand everything.  Coakley's number is off by about 100 votes somewhere in my maths, but it won't matter to the map:

County tonight/Town tomorrow

County	Brown	Brown%	Coakley	Coakley%	Total Votes
Barnstable	59,990	57.41%	43,609	41.73%	104,500
Berkshire	13,294	30.50%	29,847	68.48%	43,584
Bristol	93,474	56.01%	71,493	42.84%	166,897
Dukes	2,641	34.10%	4,915	63.45%	7,746
Essex	143,897	56.53%	108,354	42.57%	254,556
Franklin	9,876	35.73%	17,318	62.65%	27,644
Hampden	71,641	54.52%	57,813	44.00%	131,404
Hampshire	21,107	37.30%	34,770	61.45%	56,585
Middlesex	259,768	47.43%	283,259	51.72%	547,654
Nantucket	2,032	48.05%	2,139	50.58%	4,229
Norfolk	152,784	55.56%	120,041	43.65%	274,979
Plymouth	119,979	62.77%	69,565	36.39%	191,143
Suffolk	57,350	32.78%	115,834	66.22%	174,931
Worcester	160,274	60.90%	99,803	37.92%	263,164

The Brown and Coakley tallies match my spreadsheet almost exactly.  Brown's column is perfect.  Coakley's column is off slightly in Suffolk (115,754) and Essex (108,336).

Our Duke County overall tallies vary slightly - I have it at 7,648.  Our Franklin (27,460) and Hampshire (56,589) county totals are each off by 4.   I have 275,087 for Norfolk County.

There may be a few rounding differences with the percentages (some disagree by .01), but once adjusted for the new totals, they should be in line.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

MSNBC's coverage was fun to watch.

Matthews and Maddow were rambling incoherently, Nora O'Donnell (field reporter bimbette) looked nearly in tears and Olbermann would have taken a baseball bat to a puppy on the air if he could he was so pissed.

Coakley's concession speech was classy and articulate.

Brown rambled on and on and said nothing but given the shock of the upset I'll cut him some slack at least.

The scariest part of the coverage was the fact that Arianna Huffington was the best commentator of all........that's really scary.

Fun night for political junkies.

[JoeBrayson]

Has anybody got any congressional district level data, as it would be interesting to see if the Republicans can focus on the districts in November?

[cinyc]

Middlesex County ended up just like Bergen Co in NJ a swing County we thought the GOP candidate would need to win, who lead in for most of the night but had slip away at the end and end up not being so important to the Republican after all.

I am surprised that Worcester went so Republican. I was expected 55-45 in that county not 60-40. among other surprises, who would have thought that the city whose machine kept Jim Ogonoski out of the House would end up going to Brown by 5 points?  

Worcester is one of the top 3 counties for Republicans in the state (Plymouth, Worcester, Barnstable) - so Brown doing that well there isn't totally unexpected.

The real story is in Bristol (New Bedford) and Hampden (Springfield) counties.   Brown significantly outperformed Mitt Romney in both blue collar counties.  Brown may have had a little boost in northern Bristol county since it's so close to his hometown of Wrentham.  But there's no question Brown connected with blue collar white voters.

The other story is that minorities stayed home.  In Hampden County, turnout was down big in minority heavy Springfield and Holyoke.  It was close to the statewide drop from the Boston Globe's last unofficial 2008 presidential numbers in most of the rest of the county - slightly better in some places - generally rural or higher-income Springfield suburban - like Longmeadow, a little worse but nothing major in more moderate income suburban Springfield towns like West Springfield and Chicopee (which had less than 6 point differential from the statewide 26.2% drop).

[cinyc]

Has anybody got any congressional district level data, as it would be interesting to see if the Republicans can focus on the districts in November?

Someone did an estimate upthread last night.  I'll try to run the numbers though my spreadsheet today, if I can find time.  The numbers for the Inner Boston-area districts won't be exact, since they go across city lines.

[nclib]

I can't believe it. I know Coakley ran an awful campaign, but I would have thought that Massachusetts of all places would be able to trust the Democrats.

Working-class revolt centered against those in power.

It will take some work to see the differential swings to see just who "revolted" the most, and by how much. What we do know, is that academic areas, and rich liberal areas, hardly revolted at all vis a vis Obama.  Some, but not much, relatively speaking, as to the rich liberal areas.

The New York Times has a swing map by town (from 2008 presidential) this morning:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/01/19/us/politics/massachusetts-election-map.html?hp

I don't want to get into another class-definition argument, but what the map suggests to me is that much as we like to pay attention to ye olde mill towns , the Dems have at least as much of a problem is in sort of lower-middle areas - the "exurbs" and the like, where people have never been too loyal to either party.

For the record:

Highest swing

North Attleborough 22.5
Plainville 21.8
Southbridge 21.3
Wrentham 20.9
Athol 20.7
Tolland 20.7

Lowest swing

Cummington 0.7
Pelham 1.9
Williamstown 2.2
Leverett 2.2
Shutesbury 2.5

-------

Aside from Wrentham being Brown's hometown, anyone know much about any of these places?

[Sam Spade]

NCLIB:

Mostest swing

North Attleborough 22.5 - Historically, a jewelry/button manufacturing town
Plainville 21.8 - Used to be part of Wrentham many moons ago.
Southbridge 21.3 - Mill town.
Wrentham 20.9 - already pointed out
Athol 20.7 - Another mill town, though more into the manufacture of tools in later years.
Tolland 20.7 - Yet another mill town.

Lowest swing

Cummington 0.7 - Not in Berkshire county, but I think of it as part of the Berkshires.  Small town.  Rachel Maddow lives here.
Pelham 1.9 - Same.  Median household income is over $60,000, meaning...
Williamstown 2.2 - Berkshires along the Vermont/New York border.  Williams College is here.  This is also historically a mill town, however, so not monolithic.
Leverett 2.2 - Median household income over $60K.  Used to be a mill town, of course, too.  Close to Springfield.
Shutesbury 2.5 - Ditto to Leverett (same area), but the University of Massachusetts is nearby and I think a good amount of its growth in population has occurred because of that (and now that I think of it, probably Leverett too.

[Sam Spade]

Alright -looks like I'm not going to get any help tonight and going to bed, so if someone wants to input the preliminary figures.

I'm kind of old-school and calculate by hand everything.  Coakley's number is off by about 100 votes somewhere in my maths, but it won't matter to the map:

County tonight/Town tomorrow

County	Brown	Brown%	Coakley	Coakley%	Total Votes
Barnstable	59,990	57.41%	43,609	41.73%	104,500
Berkshire	13,294	30.50%	29,847	68.48%	43,584
Bristol	93,474	56.01%	71,493	42.84%	166,897
Dukes	2,641	34.10%	4,915	63.45%	7,746
Essex	143,897	56.53%	108,354	42.57%	254,556
Franklin	9,876	35.73%	17,318	62.65%	27,644
Hampden	71,641	54.52%	57,813	44.00%	131,404
Hampshire	21,107	37.30%	34,770	61.45%	56,585
Middlesex	259,768	47.43%	283,259	51.72%	547,654
Nantucket	2,032	48.05%	2,139	50.58%	4,229
Norfolk	152,784	55.56%	120,041	43.65%	274,979
Plymouth	119,979	62.77%	69,565	36.39%	191,143
Suffolk	57,350	32.78%	115,834	66.22%	174,931
Worcester	160,274	60.90%	99,803	37.92%	263,164

The Brown and Coakley tallies match my spreadsheet almost exactly.  Brown's column is perfect.  Coakley's column is off slightly in Suffolk (115,754) and Essex (108,336).

Our Duke County overall tallies vary slightly - I have it at 7,648.  Our Franklin (27,460) and Hampshire (56,589) county totals are each off by 4.   I have 275,087 for Norfolk County.

There may be a few rounding differences with the percentages (some disagree by .01), but once adjusted for the new totals, they should be in line.

The probable answer is that I just miscopied somewhere.  No biggie.  Will  correct later.

[cinyc]

Here's my table of vote by CD.  I allocated the vote for the 4 municipalities that are in two CDs (Boston, Fall River, Hanson, Wayland) by number of precincts per CD.  That may or may not be accurate.  If someone has a better formula for breaking the towns up, please let me know.

[cinyc]

NCLIB:

Mostest swing

North Attleborough 22.5 - Historically, a jewelry/button manufacturing town
Plainville 21.8 - Used to be part of Wrentham many moons ago.
Southbridge 21.3 - Mill town.
Wrentham 20.9 - already pointed out
Athol 20.7 - Another mill town, though more into the manufacture of tools in later years.
Tolland 20.7 - Yet another mill town.

Lowest swing

Cummington 0.7 - Not in Berkshire county, but I think of it as part of the Berkshires.  Small town.  Rachel Maddow lives here.
Pelham 1.9 - Same.  Median household income is over $60,000, meaning...
Williamstown 2.2 - Berkshires along the Vermont/New York border.  Williams College is here.  This is also historically a mill town, however, so not monolithic.
Leverett 2.2 - Median household income over $60K.  Used to be a mill town, of course, too.  Close to Springfield.
Shutesbury 2.5 - Ditto to Leverett (same area), but the University of Massachusetts is nearby and I think a good amount of its growth in population has occurred because of that (and now that I think of it, probably Leverett too.

Not much to add, except North Attleborough is also close to Wrentham.  Leverett isn't that close to Springfield - it's closer to U Mass-Amherst, which explains a lot of it.

Berkshire County in general saw a huge drop in total votes cast turnout relative to the unofficial '08 numbers (-33.7%) - even more than Suffolk County, despite Boston's lackluster showing.   Part of that is likely due to lower Democrat turnout overall, but I suspect the fact that it is in the Albany, NY TV market may have played a bit of role, too.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

dang, his daughters are good looking

I totally just sent some Facebook friend requests.

On the serious note, congratulations to Scott Brown on a perfectly executed political campaign. Two weeks ago when Rasmussen had him 50-41 down, that poll seemed too generous to him and yet he's now a US Senator-elect. At least once the old adage about favorite being vulnerable if he/she can't clear 50% in polls proved to be true.

Of course, Brown was helped by Coakley going auto-pilot too early and by general voter dissatisfaction with Washington Democrats, but still he deserves a huge hat tip. Whoever managed his campaign should be getting calls from Republican 2012 contenders ASAP.

His Campaign was a Romney operation. They are already spoken for.

[JoeBrayson]

Thanks, I am surprised at the amount of districts Brown 'carried'. Could the GOP realistically gain a house seat in Mass?

[Eraserhead]

So the ''final margin'' was exactly what?

[Meeker]

So the ''final margin'' was exactly what?

Brown +4.87

[cinyc]

So the ''final margin'' was exactly what?

Brown  +109,425 (4.87%)

All precincts are in, but it's not totally final yet.  There may be some mail-in absentees (I don't know what Massachusetts' law is on when they must arrive, but there definitely could be late-arriving military absentees, which must be counted)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Thanks, I am surprised at the amount of districts Brown 'carried'. Could the GOP realistically gain a house seat in Mass?

If one were to come open and the GOP actually put some effort into yea. I read an article on the Boston Globe's site last night that said GOP organizations are going to be doing heavy candidate recruitment across the country, including Massachusetts. Tsongas might be vulnerable do to being there the shortest time. However unless Delahunt, Tierney, Neal or McGovern retire, its unlikely.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Thanks, I am surprised at the amount of districts Brown 'carried'. Could the GOP realistically gain a house seat in Mass?

I doubt it, at least as the representatives stand now.

[Silent Hunter]

Thanks, I am surprised at the amount of districts Brown 'carried'. Could the GOP realistically gain a house seat in Mass?

I doubt it, at least as the representatives stand now.

I doubt it. Special elections don't automatically carry over to generals, by any stretch of the imagination.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I thought Brown's speech was hilarious. He offered his daughters to the public as well. I imagine he was still a bit in shock that he actually won.

[cinyc]

Thanks, I am surprised at the amount of districts Brown 'carried'. Could the GOP realistically gain a house seat in Mass?

Probably not in 2010 - the incumbents other than Tsongas are pretty entrenched.  MA-10, which stretches from Quincy to the Cape along the coast, would be most vulnerable if it were open.

Part of the problem is gerrymandering.  Barney Frank's MA-4 district has a really odd shape, stretching from just outside of Boston to New Bedford.  Republican-leaning (by Massachusetts standards) Plymouth and Worcester Counties are broken into a number of CDs, diluting their strength.  We'll have to see what happens after redistricting in 2012.

Note that many MA Congressmen have ran unopposed in the past few cycles.  They could falter in a tough race with a good candidate - but I doubt it.

[Sam Spade]

I thought Brown's speech was hilarious. He offered his daughters to the public as well. I imagine he was still a bit in shock that he actually won.

You see, this is the reason why I say Brown has the charm and likeability that Romney doesn't.

During a victory speech, he goes up and says something that causes his daughters to be completely embarassed by saying they're "available".  This is typical Dad behavior - ask any normal woman and they'll tell you that their Dad has done something that they felt completely embarassed about at the time.

Romney, on the other hand, talks about going on trips with his family and putting the dog or the roof of the car.  This is rather strange - and most people would feel likewise.  Makes him look weird.

He's got promise - we'll see in a couple of years whether this is just luck and whether he's ready for the big time.

[Eraserhead]

I thought Brown's speech was hilarious. He offered his daughters to the public as well. I imagine he was still a bit in shock that he actually won.

Hot.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I thought Brown's speech was hilarious. He offered his daughters to the public as well. I imagine he was still a bit in shock that he actually won.

Hot.

They were, too. One was a little tall, a basketball player at Boston College, but the blond was excellent.

On a serious note, I don't know anything about his views, but he's got a great, likable personality, something that Romney lacks, that could see him go far, if he makes noise in the Senate and can get reelected in 2012 assuming he doesn't retire to concentrate on running, which would be foolish. He certainly has the family and charm to be a good candidate.

[Sam Spade]

dang, his daughters are good looking

I totally just sent some Facebook friend requests.

On the serious note, congratulations to Scott Brown on a perfectly executed political campaign. Two weeks ago when Rasmussen had him 50-41 down, that poll seemed too generous to him and yet he's now a US Senator-elect. At least once the old adage about favorite being vulnerable if he/she can't clear 50% in polls proved to be true.

Of course, Brown was helped by Coakley going auto-pilot too early and by general voter dissatisfaction with Washington Democrats, but still he deserves a huge hat tip. Whoever managed his campaign should be getting calls from Republican 2012 contenders ASAP.

His Campaign was a Romney operation. They are already spoken for.

If Romney was the real genius that everyone thinks he is, he would be running campaigns, not be running as a candidate in a campaign.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

dang, his daughters are good looking

I totally just sent some Facebook friend requests.

On the serious note, congratulations to Scott Brown on a perfectly executed political campaign. Two weeks ago when Rasmussen had him 50-41 down, that poll seemed too generous to him and yet he's now a US Senator-elect. At least once the old adage about favorite being vulnerable if he/she can't clear 50% in polls proved to be true.

Of course, Brown was helped by Coakley going auto-pilot too early and by general voter dissatisfaction with Washington Democrats, but still he deserves a huge hat tip. Whoever managed his campaign should be getting calls from Republican 2012 contenders ASAP.

His Campaign was a Romney operation. They are already spoken for.

If Romney was the real genius that everyone thinks he is, he would be running campaigns, not be running as a candidate in a campaign.

I meant Brown's people worked for Romney and likely are a top the list of Romney's 2012 campaign. Many of them work for him at his PAC Free and Strong America.