UK local elections, May 2012

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Trident on Vote UK says Labour have taken control of Sefton for the first time ever.

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The Bradford Spring seems to be regaining momentum:

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Lab gain Penistone West, Barnsley MBC, majority 52.

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Labour gain Sutton Vesey, Birmingham!!!!!

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Second reported gain in Bradford for Respect: Bowling & Barkerend (from Con).

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No to mayor in Nottingham.

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Lab gain Blundellsands, Sefton.

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Labour gain Sutton Vesey, Birmingham!!!!!

Another "not even close" moment.

Lab 3,231
Con 2,426
Green 285
LD 241

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Two more big Labour gains: Queen Edith's ward in Cambridge and Harington ward in Sefton (posh bit of Formby).

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Better clarify what happened in Bradford, as the early reports were all over the place.

Respect won City, Manningham, Heaton, Bradford Moor and Little Horton, the last by 17 votes, defeating the Labour leader of the Council Ian Greenwood.  Bradford Moor is a gain from LD and Heaton from Con, the others from Labour.  Labour won Bowling & Barkerend.

Elsewhere in the city, the Lib Dems seem to have done OK, holding Eccleshill, which they lost last year, and coming much closer to holding Baildon.  The deselected Tory held Craven.  The council is Lab 45, Con 24, LD 8, Respect 5, Green 3, various Independents 5.

Also Bradford voted against a mayor after all, 55.1% to 44.9%.

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First three Sheffield results are in: easy Labour holds in Manor Castle, Richmond and Shiregreen & Brightside.  No surprises there, but note UKIP second in all three.

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Labour have gained West Ecclesfield from the Lib Dems.  This was the narrowest of the Labour gains in Sheffield in 2011.

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Lab gains so far in Sheffield:

Beauchief & Greenhill (this was LD in 2011)
Broomhill
East Ecclesfield
Mosborough
Hillsborough
Nether Edge
West Ecclesfield

while the Lib Dems have held Graves Park and Stannington and the Greens have held Central.

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Sheffield is all in.

On the night Lab 21, LD 6, Green 1.  Compared with 2008 that's Lab +10, LD -10.  The numbers of seats won are the same as last year, but two wards had different results.  Council now Lab 59, LD 23, Green 2.

Lab gain from LD:
Beauchief & Greenhill
Broomhill
East Ecclesfield
Hillsborough
Mosborough
Nether Edge
Stocksbridge & Upper Don
Walkley
West Ecclesfield
plus Gleadless Valley on a 2008 comparison (defection)

LD hold:
Crookes
Dore & Totley
Ecclesall
Fulwood
Graves Park
Stannington

Green hold:
Central

Labour hold:
everywhere else

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Interesting. So have Labour fell back from last year? They've won Beauchief & Greenhill, but lost Crookes, and I hadn't banked on the Liberal holding as well, given the national swing to Labour since May '11 and the tiny leads they had last year.

Although, saying that, I suppose the Liberals have stagnated on their low since last May, whereas the Tories have clearly shed a noticeable amount of their vote, certainly the BBC projected national vote share and their swings seem to bare this out. Maybe Labour have maxed out their possible gains from the Liberal vote?

Yes, I don't think the LDs have done much, if at all, worse against Labour than last year.  Compared to 2011 it's the Tories who are suffering, not that that affects much in Sheffield, though they had some embarrassing results like coming fourth in Ecclesall.

As for Crookes, there is an obvious explanation which I don't like very much, but we all know it happens.  Alternatively, it was an extremely good result for Labour last year, and maybe what happened this year is partly a correction of that.

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Calderdale

Lab 9 (+7), LD 3 (-3), Con 5 (-3), BNP 0 (-1) (comparisons with 2008 election)

A bit of a mixed bag. Good LD result in Calder, but bad in Warley.

Lab gain:
Brighouse
Illingworth & Mixenden
Luddendenfoot
Park
Sowerby Bridge
Todmorden
Warley

LD held Calder (council leader's seat) and Elland, and regained the defector's seat in Greetland & Stainland.

Con held Rastrick.

Kirklees

Lab 12 (+5), Con 5 (-3), LD 3 (-4), Green 2 (+1), Ind 1 (+1).

Lab gain:

Dalton
Denby Dale
Dewsbury South
Dewsbury West
Golcar

Green gain:
Kirkburton

Con gain:
Lindley

Ind gain:

Holme Valley North

Compared with last year, Labour won Denby Dale and Dewsbury South and the LDs Colne Valley, all of which were Tory in 2011.

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Just noticed while randomly looking at the Sheffield results that Paul Scriven actually came a pretty poor third in Broomfield. lol.

Yes, there are quite a few people around who don't like him very much.  Plus the Greens fought hard and the Lib Dems are going to have to work to avoid Broomhill following Central's path.  (Though Central was never a Lib Dem stronghold in the way Broomhill was.)

If you want some more lols look at the Tory performances in the inner west (and some parts of the outer west, like Ecclesall); many of these areas were Tory strongholds until the 1980s and in some cases until the early 1990s.

I'll do some swing maps and vote share maps for Sheffield at some point over the next few days.

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OK, time for some Sheffield maps.

First, winning party.



Next, Lab/LD swing from 2011 to 2012 (UK definition of swing, so average of vote changes rather than the sum).  Colours are in increments of 4%, with the darkest colours being 12% to 16%.  NB no wards had swings to LD between 4% and 8%.



Next, Lab/LD swing from the last time these seats were contested, in 2008.  Same colour scheme as above, except that the darkest red is from 20% up to over 29% (in Hillsborough); I ran out of shades of red.



Now vote share maps for the five parties with full slates.  First Labour, with 10% increments, the darkest shade being 70% to 80%.  This was a pretty good performance, though not quite as good as last year in most places.



The Lib Dems, again in 10% increments, the darkest being 40% to 50%.  In most wards this is slightly down on last year.



The Greens, in 5% increments.  They got 31% in Broomhill and 49% in Central.  They did well in many places, but slipped a bit in the east of the city.



UKIP, in 5% increments.  I've included Steve Moxon in Dore & Totley as his name was still on the ballot paper as UKIP.  In Stocksbridge & Upper Don, where they came second, their candidate was a Stocksbridge town councillor.



Finally the Tories, again in 5% increments (though there are no wards in the 15% to 20% or 25% to 30% categories).  Except in Dore & Totley and Fulwood they did terribly, coming fifth citywide and being beaten by the Greens and/or UKIP in every ward other than those two.  I believe that in terms of citywide share this was the worst ever performance by the Conservative Party in Sheffield local elections since they first started standing as such.

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Kennedy might hold his seat, if the boundary changes go through, i reckon he'll beat Alexander for the selection

Would he be allowed to beat Alexander for the selection, or would he be pressurised into standing aside?

I'm sure the SNP will be hoping that Kennedy isn't allowed to beat Alexander.

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The one city to vote Yes to a mayor in May, Bristol, is having its election on 15 November together with the Police Commissioner elections.  The list of candidates is out, and Bristolians have no shortage of choice:

Tom Baldwin - TUSC
Tony Britt - Independent
Tim Collins - Independent
Dave Dobbs - The Birthday Party
George Ferguson - Bristol 1st
Rich Fisher - Independent
Stoney Garnett - Independent
Owain George - Independent
Geoff Gollop - Conservative
Neil Maggs - Respect
Spud Murphy - Independent
Philip Pover - Independent
Daniella Radice - Green
Marvin Rees - Labour
Jon Rogers - Lib Dem

That's 15 candidates, of whom more than two are serious; SV was not designed for this.

I found a brief summary of all of the candidates at http://bristolculture.wordpress.com/2012/10/22/15-bristol-mayor-candidates/

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I don't think SV was really designed for anything; Dale Campbell Savours literally wrote it on the back of an envelope if I recall rightly.

According to Wikipedia he described it in an article he wrote for the New Statesman in 1989, and it was recommended by a Labour commission in 1993 for parliamentary elections.  It doesn't say what they thought its advantages were.

Speaking of Labour ex-MPs, is the Green candidate for Bristol mayor any relation to Giles Radice?

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... and has a Wikipedia page.

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Doktorb in another place posted an interesting election leaflet from Dave Dobbs, the Birthday Party candidate for Bristol mayor.

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Bump for Bristol mayoral election today.  Some reports (and a very strange poll which appeared) suggest that Labour are most likely to win, followed by George Ferguson.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/14/bristol-mayor-election-george-ferguson

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Some reports suggest Ferguson may have won.

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In the second round, Ferguson went from 31,321 to 37,353, and Rees went from 25,896 to 31,259.

So this guy is Mayor of Bristol.

Elsewhere, Hartlepool voted to abolish the mayoral system, so it's farewell to the Monkey.